PREFACE 5 METHODOLOGY 7 Study Aims and Objectives .................................................................................................................. 7 Report structure .................................................................................................................................... 7 Delineating the Spatial Structure of the North West HMA .................................................................. 8 Spatial sub-divisions within a housing market area ............................................................................ 8 Executive Summary 11 Background......................................................................................................................................... 11 What is Local Housing Systems Analysis?........................................................................................ 11 The North West Housing Market Area............................................................................................... 11 Economic and Demographic Trends in the North West HMA........................................................... 12 The Owner Occupied Sector Trends in the North West HMA .......................................................... 12 Private Renting Within the North West HMA..................................................................................... 13 The Social Housing Sector across the North West HMA.................................................................. 14 Bringing the Evidence Together and Identifying Imbalances............................................................ 15 1. INTRODUCING THE NORTH WEST HOUSING MARKET AREA 18 North West HMA................................................................................................................................. 18 The Spatial Boundary of North West HMA ........................................................................................ 20 Cross-Border Dimension .................................................................................................................... 22 Summary............................................................................................................................................. 22 2. KEY ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 25 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 25 Recent Economic Performance ......................................................................................................... 25 Recent Employment trends................................................................................................................ 26 Unemployment, worklessness and deprivation ................................................................................. 26 Labour market structure ..................................................................................................................... 28 Incomes and earnings ........................................................................................................................ 31 Incomes............................................................................................................................................... 32 Short and longer-term economic outlook and associated challenges .............................................. 33 Demographic Trends .......................................................................................................................... 36 Composition of population.................................................................................................................. 36 Minority ethnic communities............................................................................................................... 38 North West HMA level population projections ................................................................................... 40 Household projections........................................................................................................................ 42 Cross border comparisons ................................................................................................................. 44 Summary............................................................................................................................................. 46 Key Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 47 3. NORTH WEST HMA: THE OWNER OCCUPIED SECTOR 50 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 50 Housing stock flows............................................................................................................................ 53 House building relative to RDS 2001-25 targets ............................................................................... 55 Other stock flows ................................................................................................................................56 Profile of Owner Occupiers ................................................................................................................ 56 House price and transaction trends ................................................................................................... 57 House prices in the North West HMA ................................................................................................ 58 Affordability of owner occupation ....................................................................................................... 61 Alternative affordability measures...................................................................................................... 64 Potential for intermediate housing ..................................................................................................... 66 Co-ownership housing........................................................................................................................ 67 1 Owner Occupation in North West Rural............................................................................................. 67 Future prospects................................................................................................................................. 68 Summary............................................................................................................................................. 69 Key Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 71 4. Private Renting Within The North West HMA 73 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 73 Expansion of private renting............................................................................................................... 73 Profile of the PRS stock ..................................................................................................................... 75 Vacancies ........................................................................................................................................... 76 Dwelling age and condition ................................................................................................................ 77 Households ......................................................................................................................................... 78 Impact of Welfare Reform on the PRS .............................................................................................. 83 Private Rental Issues in North West Rural Area ............................................................................... 84 Tenancy management issues ............................................................................................................ 85 Inter-tenure flows................................................................................................................................85 Future Prospects ................................................................................................................................86 Key Issues .......................................................................................................................................... 87 5. SOCIAL HOUSING WITHIN THE NORTH WEST HMA 90 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 90 Profile of the social housing stock...................................................................................................... 90 Changes in stock numbers over time ................................................................................................ 92 Dwelling attributes .............................................................................................................................. 92 Dwelling age ....................................................................................................................................... 95 Profile of existing social rented tenants ............................................................................................. 97 Economic status and incomes ........................................................................................................... 97