Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page i WHO INTERVENES? Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page ii Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page iii Who Intervenes? ETHNIC CONFLICT AND INTERSTATE CRISIS David Carment, Patrick James, and Zeynep Taydas The Ohio State University Press Columbus Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page iv Copyright © 2006 by The Ohio State University Press. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Carment, David, 1959– Who intervenes? : ethnic conflict and interstate crisis / David Carment, Patrick James, and Zeynep Taydas. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0–8142–1013–9 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 0–8142–9010–8 (CD- ROM) 1. Ethnic conflict—Case studies. 2. Conflict management—Case studies. 3. International relations—Case studies. 4. World politics—Case studies. I. James, Patrick, 1957– II. Taydas, Zeynep. III. Title. HM1121.C37 2006 305.8'009'051—dc22 2005018560 Cover design by Dan O’Dair Type set in Sabon Printed by Thomson-Shore, Inc. The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials. ANSI Z39.48–1992. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page v For my father David William Carment (1928–2004) For the future–Patrick James Wayne and Sarah Smith Brenda For Kahraman, Aynur, and Mehmet Taydas Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page vi Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page vii CONTENTS List of Figures ix List of Maps x Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1. Ethnic Conflict: The Neglected Interstate Dimension 1 Chapter 2. The Two-Level Game of Ethnic Conflict 17 Chapter 3. Disintegration of Paradise: The Indo–Sri Lankan Crisis 43 Chapter 4. Somali Irredentism—The Pursuit of a “Greater Somalia” 75 Chapter 5. Thai Malay Separatism: Managing Interstate Ethnic Conflict 109 Chapter 6. The Breakup of Yugoslavia and Its Immediate Aftermath 143 Chapter 7. The Cyprus Puzzle: Two Nations, One Island 179 Chapter 8. Conclusions: Taming the Untamable? 206 Notes 217 Works Cited 233 Index 253 Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page viii Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page ix LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 A Typology of Potential Intervening States: Ethnic Composition and Institutional Constraints 25 3.1. The Indo–Sri Lankan Conflict 47 4.1 Somali Irredentism 79 5.1 Thai Malay Separatism 112 6.1 The Yugoslavia Conflict 146 7.1 Cyprus Puzzle 182 ix Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page x LIST OF MAPS Sri Lanka, 2004 42 Somalia, 2004 74 Thailand, 2004 108 The former Yugoslavia, 1945–1990 142 Cyprus, 2004 178 x Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We owe a great deal to those who have read this book in its previous drafts and offered help. Ahmet Sözen provided insightful criticism and suggestions on our Cyprus chapter. We also are also indebted to Özgür Özdamar for making our figures and providing helpful suggestions; Janet Bradshaw for extensive help with word processing; and Azat Atadjanov, Balkan Devlen, and Leslie Liu for research assistance. The inspiration for this volume springs from the International Crisis Behavior project’s goal to develop a systematic and comprehensive study of international crisis. As a doctoral student, David Carment was privileged to have worked with Michael Brecher and the International Crisis Behaviour project team at McGill University. Carment’s dissertation, upon which this book is partly based, was written with helpful feedback from Mark Brawley, Patrick James, Hudson Meadwell, and T.V. Paul. Subsequent comments and reviews of the theoretical and case study literature were provided by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Stuart Kaufman, Stephen Saideman, Shmuel Sandler, Hemda Ben-Yehuda, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. David Carment would like to recognize the support of many of his research assistants at Carleton University, including Michael Penner and Troy Joseph. Financial assistance for this research was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Security and Defence Forum of Canada, and the Centre for Security and Defence Studies at Carleton University. Each of us is blessed by having good friends and family who have helped in ways that go beyond the content of this book. David Carment would like to thank his family and friends who have made the journey interesting and fruitful. Patrick James is grateful for the support of his family, most notably, Carolyn, Ben, Bob, Carol, Jim, and, of course, Puppy. He has received encouragement from William James Booth, Daryll Clow, Jamie Hayden, and Ian Sirota during some challenging times. Zeynep Taydas feels the same way: This book would not have been possible without the encouragement and sup- port of friends, family, and colleagues who have been at her side since the beginning of this journey. Zeynep is indebted to her family—Kahraman, Aynur, Mehmet, Nazan, Defne, and Emre Taydas, whose presence, support, and smiling faces over the years have been essential to realizing her dreams. xi Carment_FM_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page xii xii Acknowledgments Zeynep also wishes to thank some wonderful people, Tansu Demirbilek, Yasemin Akbaba, Çigdem Kentmen, Özgür Özdamar, and Ramez Sünna, for being there every time help was needed. Finally, we are grateful to our editor, Malcolm Litchfield, and everyone at The Ohio State University Press for their extraordinary work at every stage of development for this book. Carment_CH_1_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page 1 CHAPTER ONE Ethnic Conflict: The Neglected Interstate Dimension The conflicts which are of global concern involve deep issues of ethnic and cultural identity, of recognition and of participation that are usually denied to ethnic minorities in addition to issues of security and other val- ues that are not negotiable. (Burton 1987: 5) 1. The International Politics of Ethnic Conflict Seemingly banished to the sidelines of international politics by the Cold War, ethnicity is back at center court. Two decades ago, Brecher and James (1986) argued that many interstate crises have their origins in political, economic, and social upheavals at the domestic level, while in other cases, these events have fueled the fires of internal disruption.1 Ethnicity is at the forefront of such processes, regardless of the direction that is emphasized for cause and effect. The politicization of ethnicity in general and ethnic parties in particu- lar is regarded as a “major threat” to democratic stability (Chandra 2004: 1). Although the crises of the late-twentieth century and new millennium no longer are subsumed within overarching ideological competitions and rival- ries—conflict settings that shaped perceptions for the almost half-century- long Cold War—the assertions from Brecher and James (1986) remain no less valid today.2 While sources and manifestations of ethnic conflict are studied primarily at the domestic level, the epigraph to this chapter points out that much of today’s ethnic strife is internationalized and naturally associated with foreign or interstate events. In this context, interstate ethnic conflict entails a set of deliberate strategic interactions and processes by which the behavior of one state creates a crisis for one or more state actors who perceive a core threat to values, finite time for response, and a heightened likelihood of military hostilities (Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997a; Carment and James 1997b; Goertz and Diehl 1997; see also Weiner 1992). 1 Carment_CH_1_3rd_rev.qxp 12/15/2005 11:27 AM Page 2 2 Chapter One Various questions need answers: Why do some ethnic conflicts lead to interstate crisis and even war while others do not? When interstate ethnic strife does erupt, why do some states pursue covert involvement while others adopt open and conciliatory approaches? In answering these questions, this book contributes to an understanding of the interstate dimension of ethnic conflict in three ways. First, the book develops a framework to account for the origins and patterns of interstate crises in relation to the combination of ethnicity and political institutions for a given state. Second, five case studies of ethnic intervention are used to assess the framework’s performance in practice by testing propositions derived from it. Third, and finally, specific policy recommendations are derived from the case studies. More advanced understanding of interstate ethnic conflict is important for several reasons. For example, Brecher and Wilkenfeld (1997a) find that eth- nic conflicts with state-to-state interactions generally are more violent and involve more coercive crisis management techniques than do their nonethnic counterparts. They also discover that interstate ethnic conflicts tend to be more protracted and therefore more difficult to resolve within a single crisis. Given the high stakes involved, intense interventions can be difficult to sus- tain and control (Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997a). This is because leaders and their constituencies may be deeply divided about issues related to support for an ethnic movement. In such instances, the relative autonomy of the leader, in combination with the distribution of political gains and losses at the domestic level, is fundamental to the credibility of, and commitment to, cri- sis escalation. More importantly, if internal constraints do impose significant limitations on what leaders can do in the foreign policy domain, it may be possible (and desirable) to address the interstate dimensions of ethnic conflict by tackling its sources at the domestic level. To advance this argument, a framework is developed to link the causes of ethnic conflict at the domestic level to interstate conflict, crisis, and war. This process begins by building on the work of Heraclides (1990, 1991, 1997), Lake and Rothchild (1996, 1998), Saideman (1997, 1998a, b), Taras and Ganguly (1998), and the Minorities at Risk Project (Marshall 1997), among others, through an assessment of interactions between affective and instru- mental interests that influence a state’s choice about whether to intervene in ethnic strife.