Running Head: ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION i All a-Twitter: Did social media help Naheed Nenshi become mayor of Calgary? By Krista Stefan Submitted to the Faculty of Extension University of Alberta In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Arts in Communications and Technology August 10, 2017 ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Linda Trimble, for her encouragement, help, understanding, and support throughout this project and Dr. Lois Harder for her advice and support (both in the Department of Political Science in the Faculty of Arts at the University of Alberta), and Kerri Calvert for giving me the push to get started in this program in the first place. I would also like to thank all of the instructors, supervisors, and staff in the MACT program for facilitating this incredible learning opportunity. Thanks also go out to my independent coders who helped with the data validation - Charlotte, Shannon, and Denise. Finally, a huge thanks goes to my family, friends, and colleagues, who have supported me throughout this process with kindness, understanding, and humour. ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION iii Abstract As the use of social media platforms such as Twitter increase, so has the user-generated information available online. As more and more people are taking debates into cyberspace, it seems to be difficult to determine how these tools influence opinions. Traditional media, on the other hand, appears to be losing influence. This has certainly been seen in the area of political election campaigns where traditional media, including opinion polls, are becoming less and less a reliable way of gauging public opinion and social media is being examined as a means of determining the political climate. This project looks at the results of the Calgary 2010 mayoral election in which Naheed Nenshi staged a surprise win, the way in which the newspapers reported on this election, and the way in which the mayoral candidates used Twitter. By examining these I anticipated gaining a better understanding of how the political communication landscape is changing. This study found that traditional factors that are normally used to predict election results, including news reporting, campaign funding and candidate name recognition, were not reliable predictors of the outcome. Twitter data provided a more reliable cue. The winning candidate, Nenshi, was the only one of the mayoral contenders who extensively used Twitter as a tool for conversation rather than as a substitute for other communication media such as pamphlets or static web sites. KEYWORDS: social media, Twitter, elections, voter engagement, newspaper influence, Calgary mayor, Nenshi ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................. vi Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi Charts ................................................................................................................................. vi Figures................................................................................................................................ vi Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 4 Literature Search Methodology .......................................................................................... 4 Factors Affecting Elections................................................................................................. 5 Social Media Use in Election Campaigns ........................................................................... 8 Social Media to Connect ......................................................................................... 8 Social Media to Inform ......................................................................................... 10 Social Media to Activate ....................................................................................... 11 Methods of Analyzing Social Media Use ......................................................................... 14 Theoretical Context ........................................................................................................... 18 Medium Theory ..................................................................................................... 18 Rhetoric ................................................................................................................. 20 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 21 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology ............................................................................ 23 Sampling ........................................................................................................................... 24 Data Collection ................................................................................................................. 26 Coding Scheme ................................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 4: Findings and Discussion ............................................................................................. 46 General Election Results ................................................................................................... 46 Newspaper Analysis.......................................................................................................... 48 Twitter Analysis ................................................................................................................ 54 Data Verification .................................................................................................. 57 Content Analysis of Tweets ................................................................................... 59 ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION v Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 5: Conclusion................................................................................................................... 65 Limitation .......................................................................................................................... 65 Opportunities for Future Research .................................................................................... 66 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 66 References ..................................................................................................................................... 68 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 78 Appendix A: Glossary of Twitter and other Social Media Terms .................................... 78 Appendix B: Additional Tables and Charts ...................................................................... 81 ALL A-TWITTER: CALGARY 2010 MAYORAL ELECTION vi Table of Figures Tables Table 1: Candidates' Twitter Usernames ...................................................................................... 27 Table 2: Summary of Coding for Content Analysis of Tweets .................................................... 29 Table 3: City of Calgary 2010 Mayoral Election Results ............................................................. 47 Table 4: City of Calgary Trends in Voter Turnout in Municipal Elections .................................. 48 Table 5: Newspaper Mentions of Candidates ............................................................................... 49 Table 6: Number of Tweets Following Newspaper Mention of Social Media ............................. 53 Table 7: Number of Tweets by Candidates ................................................................................... 54 Table 8: Content Analysis Data for Higgins, McIver, Nenshi ...................................................... 60 Table 9: Content Analysis Data for All Candidates ...................................................................... 81 Table 10: Daily Number of Tweets .............................................................................................. 82 Charts Chart 1: Twitter Activity for Each Candidate ..............................................................................