Newhaven Transport Study July 2011 Lewes District Council Newhaven290816 ITD Transport ITW 001 G P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\290816\WP\Newhaven_transport_study_re port 260711 doc Study July 2011 July 2011 Lewes District Council 32 High Street, Lewes, East Sussex, BN7 2LX Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com Newhaven Transport Study Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A April 2011 N Gordon Draft B May 2011 N Gordon Draft – intro amended, sec 4.6 completed C June 2011 N Gordon I Johnston I Johnston Draft – Comments received 26/5/11 included D June 2011 N Gordon, L Dancer I Johnston I Johnston All sections completed E July 2011 N Gordon I Johnston I Johnston Scenario 1 mitigation added F July 2011 N Gordon I Johnston I Johnston Scenarios 4 and 5 added G July 2011 N Gordon I Johnston I Johnston Scenario 1 run with TEMPRO62 growth This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which used for any other purpose. is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton SO50 9NW, United Kingdom T +44(0) 23 8062 8800 F +44(0) 23 8062 8801, W www.mottmac.com Newhaven Transport Study Content Chapter Title Page 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 Model Background ___________________________________________________________________ 1 2. 2010 Model Update 4 2.1 Observed traffic growth from 2009_______________________________________________________ 4 2.2 Network Updates ____________________________________________________________________ 5 2.3 Development Updates ________________________________________________________________ 6 2.4 LGV and HGV growth ________________________________________________________________ 9 2.5 Overall Matrix Growth _______________________________________________________________ 10 3. 2030 Forecast Networks 11 3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 11 3.2 Do Minimum Assumptions ____________________________________________________________ 11 3.3 Do Something Assumptions___________________________________________________________ 11 3.4 Do Something Mitigation _____________________________________________________________ 11 4. 2030 Forecast Matrices 12 4.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 12 4.2 Do Minimum Assumptions ____________________________________________________________ 12 4.3 Do Something Assumptions___________________________________________________________ 15 4.4 External Growth ____________________________________________________________________ 17 4.4.1 TEMPRO6.2_______________________________________________________________________ 17 4.5 Fuel and Income Factors _____________________________________________________________ 18 4.6 LGV and HGV growth _______________________________________________________________ 19 4.7 Overall Matrix Growth _______________________________________________________________ 19 4.8 Non Highway Interventions ___________________________________________________________ 20 5. Results 22 5.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 22 5.2 Do Something Results without mitigation ________________________________________________ 23 5.2.1 Scenario 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 24 5.2.2 Scenario 2 ________________________________________________________________________ 25 5.2.3 Scenario 3 ________________________________________________________________________ 26 5.3 Do Something Results – with mitigation _________________________________________________ 26 5.3.1 Scenario 1 with mitigation ____________________________________________________________ 27 5.3.2 Scenario 4 ________________________________________________________________________ 28 5.3.3 Scenario 5 ________________________________________________________________________ 28 6. Non Highway Intervention Results 45 7. TEMPRO62 Growth 51 8. Conclusions 56 290816/ITD/ITW/001/G July 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\290816\WP\Newhaven_transport_study_report_260711.doc Newhaven Transport Study Appendices 58 Appendix A. 2009 Model Validation Report _________________________________________________________ 59 Appendix B. Do Something Trip Distributions ______________________________________________________ 128 Tables Table 2.1: 2010 Employment Completions _________________________________________________________ 6 Table 2.2: 2010 housing completions _____________________________________________________________ 7 Table 2.3: Trip Rates__________________________________________________________________________ 8 Table 2.4: 2009-2010 LGV and HGV growth _______________________________________________________ 9 Table 2.5: Overall Matrix Growth, 2009-2010 ______________________________________________________ 10 Table 4.1: Committed Employment Developments__________________________________________________ 12 Table 4.2: Committed Housing Developments _____________________________________________________ 13 Table 4.3: Housing Numbers Comparison ________________________________________________________ 15 Table 4.4: Do Something scenario summary ______________________________________________________ 16 Table 4.5: TEMPRO5.4 growth factors ___________________________________________________________ 17 Table 4.6: TEMPRO6.2 growth factors ___________________________________________________________ 18 Table 4.6: Fuel and Income Factors _____________________________________________________________ 18 Table 4.7: 2010-2030 LGV and HGV growth ______________________________________________________ 19 Table 4.8: Overall Matrix Growth _______________________________________________________________ 19 Table 4.9: 2030 Matrix Totals – DM and Scenarios 1,2 and 3 _________________________________________ 20 Table 4.10: 2030 Matrix Totals – DM and Scenarios 1, 4 and 5_________________________________________ 20 Table 4.10: Smarter Choice Impacts _____________________________________________________________ 21 Table 5.1: Base and Do Minimum Network Summary Statistics________________________________________ 22 Table 5.2: Do Something Network Summary Statistics – Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 ____________________________ 23 Table 5.3: Do Something Network with mitigation Summary Statistics – Scenarios 1, 4 and 5 ________________ 27 Table 6.1: Do Something Network Summary Statistics – non-highway interventions _______________________ 45 Table 7.1: Do Something Network Summary Statistics – Scenario 1 with differing TEMPRO growth ___________ 51 Figures Figure 1.1: 2007 Newhaven Transport Model – Modelled Area _________________________________________ 2 Figure 1.2: 2009 Newhaven Model Network ________________________________________________________ 3 Figure 2.1: ESCC Traffic Data – 2009 & 2010 _______________________________________________________ 5 Figure 5.1: 2010 Base AM Peak Junction Impacts __________________________________________________ 29 Figure 5.2: 2010 Base PM Peak Junction Impacts __________________________________________________ 30 Figure 5.3: 2030 Do Minimum AM Peak Junction Impacts ____________________________________________ 31 Figure 5.4: 2030 Do Minimum PM Peak Junction Impacts ____________________________________________ 32 Figure 5.5: 2030 Scenario 1 AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 33 Figure 5.6: 2030 Scenario 1 PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 34 Figure 5.7: 2030 Scenario 2 AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 35 Figure 5.8: 2030 Scenario 2 PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 36 Figure 5.9: 2030 Scenario 3 AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 37 Figure 5.10: 2030 Scenario 3 PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 38 290816/ITD/ITW/001/G July 2011 P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\290816\WP\Newhaven_transport_study_report_260711.doc Newhaven Transport Study Figure 5.11: 2030 Scenario 1 Mitigated AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________ 39 Figure 5.12: 2030 Scenario 1 Mitigated PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________ 40 Figure 5.13: 2030 Scenario 4 AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 41 Figure 5.14: 2030 Scenario 4 PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 42 Figure 5.15: 2030 Scenario 5 AM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 43 Figure 5.16: 2030 Scenario 5 PM Peak Junction Impacts ______________________________________________ 44 Figure 6.1: 2030 Scenario 1 AM Peak Junction Impacts – Site Basis Non-Highway intervention_______________ 47 Figure 6.2: 2030 Scenario 1 PM Peak Junction Impacts – Site Basis Non-Highway