UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND ITS INTERACTIONS WITH CLIMATE CHANGE: 2010 ASSESSMENT Pursuant to Article 6 of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer under the Auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Copies of the report are available from United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) P. O. Box 30552 Nairobi, Kenya Published December 2010 by the Secretariat for The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi, Kenya UNEP, Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion: 2010 Assessment, United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 92-807-2312-X The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 iii iv The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2010 assessment Introduction This quadrennial Assessment was prepared by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) for the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The Assessment reports on key findings on environment and health since the last full Assessment of 2006, paying attention to the interactions between ozone depletion and climate change. Simultaneous publication of the Assessment in the scientific literature aims to inform the scientific community how their data, modeling and interpretations are playing a role in information dissemination to the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, other policymakers and scientists. The 2010 Assessment will be published in the journal, Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, 10, 2011. Janet F. Bornman Nigel Paul, Xiaoyan Tang Co-Chairs of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel United Nations Environment Programme PO Box 30552 Nairobi, Kenya http://www.unep.org/ozone http://www.unep.ch/ozone Acknowledgments: This assessment would not have been possible without the contributions of the following reviewers (in alphabetical order) all of whom made written and/or verbal comments on the content of the Chapters in this assessment. We thank them for their generous contribution of time and knowledge: Dr Pedro J. Aphalo; Dr Amy T. Austin; Dr Germar Bernhard; Dr Marianne Berwick; Prof. Wolfgang Bilger; Dr Natalia Chubarova; Dr Thomas P. Coohill; Dr Sandra L. Cooke; Dr Susana Diaz; Prof. Brian Diffey; Prof. Nils Ekelund; Dr Auroop R. Ganguly; Dr Kunshan Gao; Dr W.D. Grant; Dr R. Elizabeth M. Griffin; Prof. Michaela Hegglin; Prof. Dag Hessen; Dr Rainer Hofmann; Dr Marcel A. K. Jansen; Prof. Jennifer Y. King; Dr Margaret Kripke; Prof. G. Kulandaivelu; Dr Shaoshan Li; Prof. Lawrence E. Licht; Mr. B. Liley; Dr Kevin K. Newsham; Dr Madan Pal; Dr Barrie M. Peake; Dr Norma D. Searle; Prof. Günther Seckmeyer; Dr Anna Maria Siani; Dr Rajeshwar Sinha; Dr Harry Slaper; Prof. Ruben Sommaruga; Dr J. Richard Soulen; Dr Johannes Stratmann; Dr Åke Strid; Prof. Hugh R. Taylor; Dr Anssi Vähätalo; Dr John Wargent; Dr Ann R. Webb; Prof. Huixiang Xie The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 v vi The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 Table of Contents Abbreviations and Glossary ...................................................................................................... viii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... xv Chapter 1. Ozone depletion and climate change: Impacts on UV radiation .......................... 1 Chapter 2. The human health effects of ozone depletion and in-teractions with climate change ................................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3. Effects of solar ultraviolet radiation on terrestrial ecosystems. Patterns, mechanisms, and interactions with climate change........................................................ 83 Chapter 4. Effects of UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and in-teractions with climate change. ................................................................................................................. 113 Chapter 5. Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: Interactions and feedbacks. .............................................................................. 151 Chapter 6. Changes in air quality and tropospheric composition due to depletion of stratospheric ozone and interactions with climate. ...................................................... 187 Chapter 7. Effects of solar UV and climate change on materials. ....................................... 211 Members of the 2010 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel and UNEP representatives ................................................................................................................. 229 Reviewers of the 2010 UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Report .......................... 233 Appendix 2-1: Health risks associated with the use of substitutes for ozone depleting substances ........................................................................................................................ A-1 Questions and Answers about the Environmental Effects of the Ozone Layer Depletion and Climate Change: 2010 Update ......................................................... Q&A-1 The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 vii Abbreviations and Glossary Abbreviation Complete term 1,25(OH)2D 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D 25(OH)D 25-hydroxyvitamin D AK Actinic keratosis AO Arctic Oscillation. A large-scale variation in Arctic wind patterns AOD Aerosol optical depth APase Alkaline phosphatase APC Antigen presenting cell ASL Above sea level BCC Basal cell carcinoma(s) Br Bromine (an ozone depleting chemical) BrO Bromine monoxide BSWF Biological spectral weighting functions BWF Biological weighting function CAS Chemical Abstracts Service CAT Catalase CC Cortical cataract(s) CCM Chemistry-climate model (used to predict future changes in atmospheric composition) CDFA Chlorodifluoroacetic acid CDK Climatic droplet keratopathy CDOC Coloured dissolved organic carbon CDOM Coloured (or chromophoric) dissolved organic matter CFC Chlorofluorocarbon. Ozone depleting substance (e.g., CFC12 radical and dichlorodifluoromethane or Freon-12 (CCl2F2)), now controlled under the Montreal Protocol CH Contact hypersensitivity CH4 Methane (a greenhouse gas) viii The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 Abbreviation Complete term CIE Commission Internationale de l'Eclairage (International Commission on Illumination) Cl Chlorine (an ozone depleting substance) CM Cutaneous melanoma CO Carbon monoxide CO2 Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) COS carbonyl sulfide CPD Cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer Cu Copper (Cu(I) and Cu(II) being different oxidation states) DIC Dissolved inorganic carbon DMS Dimethylsulfide DMSP Dimethylsulfoniopropionate DNA Deoxyribonucleic acid DOC Dissolved organic carbon DOM Dissolved organic matter DON Dissolved organic nitrogen DSB Double strand break DTH Delayed type hypersensitivity DU Dobson unit (used for the measurement of total column ozone (1 DU=2.69 × 1016 molecule cm-2) EAE Experimental allergic encephalitis EDUCE European Database for Ultraviolet Radiation Climatology and Evaluation EESC Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine. A term used to represent the total chlorine concentration in the stratosphere from all sources of ozone depleting substances (including CFCs, HCl, Cl2, ClONO2, etc) and a scaled contribution from other halocarbons and bromine, taking its ODP into account ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation. A large-scale climate variability in the Pacific region EP Earth Probe (a NASA satellite) EPA US Environmental Protection Agency The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 ix Abbreviation Complete term EV Epidermodysplasia verruciformis Fe Iron (Fe(II) and Fe(III) being different oxidation states) FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute GHG Greenhouse gas Glu I A pathogenesis-related (PR) protein GST Glutathione-S-transferase GWP Global warming potential. A measure of the warming effectiveness of a gas compared with CO2 HALS Hindered Amine Light Stabilizer HCFC Hydrochlorofluorocarbon. Interim replacements for CFCs with small ozone depletion potential (e.g., R22: chlorodifluoromethane CHClF2) to be phased out HFC Hydrofluorocarbon. Long-term replacements for CFCs HFO Hydrofluoro-olefine Hg Mercury (Hg0aq and Hg(II) being different oxidation states) HIV Human immunodeficiency virus HPV Human papillomavirus HSV Herpes simplex virus HY5 Transcription factor HY5, which is a key downstream effector of the UVR8 (UV-regulatory protein) pathway IBD Inflammatory bowel disease IL Interleukin Ink4a Murine inhibitor of kinase 4a protein (gene in italics) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPF Immune protection factor kda Kilodalton KNMI Dutch National Institute for Weather, Climate and Seismology (Netherlands) L• Lipid radical MAAs Mycosporine-like amino acids Mb Megabase, equal to 1 million base pairs x The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Report for 2010 Abbreviation Complete term MC1R Melanocortin 1 receptor MHC Major histocompatibility complex MS Multiple sclerosis N2O Nitrous oxide (a greenhouse gas that is also a source of NO2) NAO North Atlantic Oscillation. A large-scale variation and redistribution of atmospheric mass in the Atlantic region producing