INTELLIGENT PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLATFORM IN A UNIVERSITY SETTING A Dissertation Presented to The Graduate Faculty of the University of Akron In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctoral of Philosophy Alaa Alghwiri August, 2017 NTELLIGENT PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLATFORM IN A UNIVERSITY SETTING Alaa Alghwiri Dissertation Approved: Accepted: _______________________________ ______________________________ Advisor Department Chair Dr. Shengyong Wang Dr. Sergio Felicelli _______________________________ _______________________________ Committee Member Dean of the College Dr. Sergio Felicelli Dr. Donald Visco _______________________________ _______________________________ Committee Member Dean of the Graduate School Dr. Chen Ling Dr. Chand Midha _______________________________ _______________________________ Committee Member Date Dr. Ping Yi _______________________________ Committee Member Dr. Richard Einsporn ABSTRACT Modeling complex systems plays a significant role in decision supports for stochastic processes such as the transportation system. Furthermore, the transportation system in an urban university setting poses additional challenges due to the dynamic nature of the user groups (mainly students) as many factors including the living arrangements and class schedules of the students influence the demands for on-campus transportation. In this research initiative, a university shuttle system was simulated using discrete event simulation modeling to understand the systems dynamics, identify system bottlenecks, and recommend improvement strategies. Specifically, the passengers waiting times as well as the number of reneged passengers were analyzed at each bus stop. After modeling and validating the current transportation system scenario, several hypothetical scenarios were investigated and quantitative comparison was made to optimize the transportation system key performance indicators. Furthermore, forecasting methodology was used to estimate the transportation system future demands at each bus stop to be able to do demand planning ahead of time and avoid any expected service interruptions. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 Research Motivation…………………………………………………………… 1 Research Objectives……………………………………………………………. 2 II. LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .............................. 3 Public Transport System Design……………………………………………….4 Public Transport System Improvement and Optimization……………………...5 Public Transport System Quality ……………………………………………… 6 Public Transport Passenger Prediction……………………………………. 7 Public Transport Traffic Prediction……………………………………….. 8 Related Work…………………………………………………………………... 9 Research Methodology……………………………………………………….. 14 III. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF AKRON .................... 20 Campus Overview……………………………………………………………. 20 iii Campus Shuttle (Roo Express) Service………………………………………. 20 Roo Express Main Routes………………………………………………...21 IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION .............................................. 27 Description of Bus Route Operation and Assumptions………………………. 27 Modeling Process Overview………………………………………………….. 29 Modeling Objects………………………………………………………... 29 Data Driven Model……………………………………………………… 31 Simulation Process Controls…………………………………………….. 33 V. ANALYSIS OF THE IPTS DYNAMIC INPUTS ..................................................... 42 Polsky Express Route Dynamic Variables…………………………………… 42 Polsky Express Arrival Rate Analysis………………………………………... 43 Dwell Time Analysis…………………………………………………………. 45 Travel Time between Stops Analysis………………………………………… 46 Passengers Origin- Destination (OD) Analysis………………………………. 49 VI. DEMAND FORECASTING ...................................................................................... 51 Polsky Express Route Demand Forecasting………………………………….. 51 Polsky Stop Demand Prediction………………………………………... 52 VII. MODEL VALIDATION, EVALUATION, RESULTS ............................................. 61 Model Validation……………………………………………………………... 61 iv Model, And Forecasting Evaluation………………………………………….. 63 Current IPTS Model Evaluation………………………………………... 63 Forecasted IPTS Model Evaluation…………………………………….. 64 Model Alternative Scenarios…………………………………………………. 66 VIII. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK ................................................................... 68 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………. 68 Future Work…………………………………………………………………... 69 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 71 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................... 75 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Influential factors for IPTS ........................................................................................ 15 2.2 Research Methodology .............................................................................................. 19 3.1 Polsky Express Route ................................................................................................ 22 3.2 Metro Dash Route ...................................................................................................... 23 3.3 South Route ................................................................................................................ 24 3.4 East Route .................................................................................................................. 26 4.1 Bus movement between stops in a regular bus headway ........................................... 27 4.2 Dynamic interaction between bus and passengers ..................................................... 28 4.3 Simulation model main objects .................................................................................. 30 4.4 Passengers’ destination process control ..................................................................... 34 4.5 Simulation Process ..................................................................................................... 35 4.6 Time of arrival to a stop process in the simulation model ......................................... 36 4.7 Passengers’ waiting time process............................................................................... 37 4.8 Number of unserved passengers’ process .................................................................. 38 4.9 Number of reneged passengers’ process .................................................................... 39 5.1 Polsky route arrival rate ............................................................................................. 44 5.2 Traffic between Different Stops ................................................................................. 47 5.3 Cycle Time Box Plot .................................................................................................. 47 5.4 Comparing Cycle Time between Different Day ........................................................ 48 vi 5.5 OD Percentages .......................................................................................................... 50 6.1 Polsky Demands Box Plot ......................................................................................... 52 6.2 Polsky Demand Run Chart......................................................................................... 53 6.3 acf and pacf for the Polsky Stop demands ................................................................. 53 6.4 Polsky Demand Run Chart with Non-Zero Values.................................................... 54 6.5 acf and pacf graphs for the Polsky Building Stop...................................................... 54 6.6 Residulas analysis for the Polsky Building stop ........................................................ 58 6.7 Forecasting for the Polsky Building stop ................................................................... 59 6.8 Forecasted vs. Actual for the Polsky Building Stop .................................................. 60 7.1 Forecasted vs. Current Arrival Rates ......................................................................... 65 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Simulation applications in the field of Engineering ................................................. 17 2. Passenger arrival rate table in the simulation model ................................................. 32 3. Passengers destination table in the simulation model ............................................... 32 4. Route sequence table in the simulation model .......................................................... 33 5. Dwell times in the Polsky Express route ................................................................... 45 6. OD Percentages ........................................................................................................ 49 7. Stationarity Test ....................................................................................................... 56 8. Forecasting table for the Polsky Building stop ........................................................ 59 9. Passengers average waiting time in Minutes ........................................................... 62 10. Number of Unserved