January 2013 CONFERENCE REPORT The Maghreb in Transition: PARTICIPATING SCHOLARS Seeking Stability in an Era of Uncertainty CSIS would like to thank and acknowledge .............................................................................. the experts who spoke at the workshop: OVERVIEW Keynote Address: The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa Hillary Rodham Clinton have created opportunities for more representative and transparent gov- Secretary of State ernance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political dis- Panelists: course. And yet, doubts remain. Jon B. Alterman, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair Transitions in Libya and Tunisia remain incomplete, and their ultimate im- in Global Security and Geostrategy and Direc- pacts on the region are still uncertain. Popular expectations of reform are tor, CSIS Middle East Program straining governments’ abilities to adapt. Dilemmas of political identity and Anouar Boukhars, Assistant Professor of institutional structure challenge both new and existing governments. Mean- Political Science and International Studies, while, the region’s persistent economic tasks—to provide jobs, stability, and McDaniel College growth for the millions of citizens who enter the labor market every year— Dan Brumberg, Co-Director, Democracy endure. Economic success will be integral to the success of the region’s politi- Studies, Georgetown University cal transformation and its future. Caroline Freund, Chief Economist, Middle To better understand the evolving political, economic, and security dynam- East and North Africa, World Bank ics in the Maghreb (defined here as Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya), Haim Malka, Deputy Director and Senior Fel- the CSIS Middle East Program convened a conference in Washington, D.C., low, CSIS Middle East Program on October 12, 2012. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton delivered Mustapha Nabli, former Governor, Tunisian the keynote address, imparting her optimism as well as her commitment Central Bank to building on recent gains in freedom and civic participation. The confer- Geoff Porter, Director, North Africa Risk ence gathered a senior group of experts from government, academia, policy Consulting research, and the business community to share their insights. While many agreed that there is reason to be cautiously hopeful, there was no denying that Hugh Roberts, Professor of North African and the region is at the beginning of a long and uncertain phase of change. Middle Eastern History, Tufts University Mostafa Terrab, Chairman and CEO, OCP KEY POINTS Group William Lawrence, Director, North Africa ■ Political and economic transitions are interdependent. Successful politi- Project, International Crisis Group cal transitions require economic stability and growth, while economic Malika Zeghal, Professor of Contemporary stability requires reestablishing reasonably predictable political environ- Islamic Thought and Life, Harvard University ments. Yahia Zoubir, Professor, Marseille School of ■ The new governments in Tunisia and Libya met early success, but the Management process of corralling divergent visions of what politics and society should look like has slowed and become more contentious. The Algerian and Moroccan publics, while facing different environments, have shown less 1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | p. 202.775.3179 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org/mideast 2 | CSIS Middle East Program | Conference Report appetite for radical change, although they continue to while new actors emerged. Though society was polarized demand government reforms. from the beginning, debates remained civil, and each side showed willingness to compromise. This was in part be- ■ Maghreb economies face a combination of short-term cause neither enjoyed political legitimacy prior to the elec- and long-term economic challenges including fiscal tions. The Higher Political Reform Commission (HPRC) pressures, high unemployment, overvalued exchange was able to successfully draft electoral laws, for example, rates, and heightened uncertainty. Addressing these partly because it was an appointed body representing the challenges effectively requires judicious trade-offs and political stability. ■ More inclusive economic growth that addresses socio- Tunisia’s revolution in early 2011 reframed the economic grievances and inequality is essential for fu- ture stability. Even strong growth will prove inadequate parameters of change in the Maghreb, raising if it fails to meaningfully reduce unemployment, which new questions about the nature of politics, has driven popular discontent across the region. the role of citizens, and the responsibilities of ■ The Maghreb is part of the Middle East, but it is also part government in the region. of Africa. Trends in the Maghreb affect the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa, and dynamics to the south affect the Maghreb. While the interrelationship poses some public interest rather than an elected body representing security challenges, it also creates opportunities for partisan interests. This spirit of compromise fostered opti- trade and broader cooperation between the Maghreb mism about Tunisia’s future social and political trajectory, and the rest of Africa. though some activists opposed the HPRC’s leadership of the transition process. ■ The United States has expanded its strategic engagement with the Maghreb countries and the region as a whole, One year later, Tunisia’s transition seems less certain. including offering resources to support transitions and Pre-election optimism has withered in the face of mount- strengthening security cooperation. ing socioeconomic difficulties, the increasing polarization of Tunisian society and politics, and a lack of institution POLITICAL DYNAMICS building. Political parties have reemerged as aggregators of ideologically driven interests, and they have largely side- Tunisia’s revolution in early 2011 reframed the parameters lined broad-based civil society actors. The new government of change in the Maghreb, raising new questions about the enjoys legitimacy, but that legitimacy has not translated nature of politics, the role of citizens, and the responsibili- into effective governance. The ruling Ennahda party, an ties of government in the region. Long-standing regimes Islamist group, has pursued an Islamization agenda, while have fallen, new constitutions have been drafted, and new the opposition focuses on frustrating the ruling party’s am- political parties have emerged. For the first time in the bitions. The result is frequent deadlock and an inability to Maghreb, Islamist political forces have been elected and address deep-seated problems. taken up leadership positions. The Tunisian experience has While Ennahda includes a spectrum of Islamist views, it is spurred other governments to rethink their own strategies increasingly moving toward a more conservative position and confront difficult questions about the nature of society as Salafi forces challenge its leadership. Among the liberal and politics. Each country has provided different answers. groups, Nidaa Tounes hopes to unify secular-leaning Tu- Tunisia nisians under a modernist and nationalist ethos in order to confront Ennahda in the next elections. Each party accuses Throughout most of 2011, Tunisia’s path forward seemed the other of undemocratic intentions. The growing political relatively clear. Between the departure of Zine al-Abidine confrontation between the two sides has delayed the pro- Ben Ali in January 2011 and the Constituent National As- cess of drafting a constitution. sembly elections in October 2011, Tunisia experienced a remarkably productive transitional period. During this Numerous other challenges await attention. The justice sys- pre-election phase, old elites and political parties retreated tem remains overwhelmed by the number of cases on its center for strategic and international studies | middle east program CSIS Middle East Program | Conference Report | 3 docket, and the minister of justice has come under criticism providing new housing and expanding infrastructure.3 On for his summary firings of judges.1 The courts are actively the political side, the regime has been able to essentially de- addressing issues of freedom of expression and the role of politicize the population while using legal means to main- Islam in public life. Tunisians have been frustrated by the tain its monopoly on power. slow pace of prosecutions of former senior officials, apart In the June 2012 elections, for example, a revised law on po- from Ben Ali himself.2 More problematically, for many of litical parties allowed a much broader range of opposition those who rebelled—in particular the poor, rural, unedu- politicians to compete for office, and international observ- cated, unemployed men who began the uprising—the revo- ers praised the elections as being largely free and fair.4 Still, lution did not deliver what they had hoped. Ben Ali’s de- some boycotted the election and alleged that it was fraudu- parture has done little to create jobs or boost the economy. lently conducted. Overall, skillful employment of economic The more existential question facing Tunisians is whether and political co-optation means the Algerian government they will be able to uproot the patrimonial and autocratic does not need to exercise repression on the scale witnessed systems that allowed former President Habib Bourguiba in Egypt or Tunisia to maintain