A DUEL OF REASON BETWEEN KOREA AND US A DUEL OF REASON BETWEEN KOREA AND US Foreign Languages Publishing House Pyongyang, Korea Juche 89 (2000) 1 Introduction The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (hereinafter Korea or the north) is a "country under suspicion". The Rangoon incident in October 1983, the missing of a south Korean airliner in October 1987, and no end of similar incidents have been suspected with prejudice as the work of Korea without any clear evidence. Suspicion, however, is often aroused artificially. The United States, south Korea and Japan, which are in sharp confrontation with Korea, are especially enthusiastic about raising various suspicions against her. These countries are, in most cases, gaining the greatest profit from growing suspicion. The countries which control the "information order" of the world exchange "information", which is unfavourable to Korea, exaggerate it and attach credence to it before spreading it throughout the world. The United Nations and international organizations are mobilized from time to time. The Korean voice is scarcely reported to the West. For the sake of fairness, it is necessary, first of all, to know the difference between the overwhelming power of such information manipulation and its influence. For all that, the real nature of Korea is invisible, and the impression that Korea is a mysterious, ghastly country might persist. This book is intended to provide a point of view of the essence of the situation in the Korean peninsula. Part I, centring upon the missile clamour, verifies its true nature and proves that the launching of an artificial satellite in Korea has effected a fundamental change in the political and military balance in the Korean peninsula. Part II analyses the present state of the Korea-US negotiations which started with the "nuclear suspicion" of Korea and deals with the articles published in the newspapers and magazines in those days. I can say confidently that when renowned experts on the problem of the Korean peninsula and its observers were publishing their speculations one after another, under the title "X Day (outbreak of the second Korean War) Is at Hand" and "Collapse of North Korea", I could make an almost correct assessment of the developments up to now. In 2 order to understand the present situation on the Korean peninsula and foresee its future, it is necessary to review the nuclear issue of Korea and the Korea-US nuclear agreement. The ranks of persons and names of organizations in Part II are those at that time. Part III deals with the possibility and method of reunification of the north and south of Korea. This book leads to the following conclusion: 1. Korea will never collapse or soft-land. 2. There is a great possibility that Korea will enter into diplomatic relationship with the United States within a few years, maintaining her socialist system. 3. Military tension will be eased, and the Korean economy will change for the better. 4. The north and south of Korea will move towards reunification by federation. Improving Korea-Japan relations will be the last problem. After the end of the Cold War, the situation on the Korean peninsula has changed radically. Though there were many twists and turns, the trend to liquidate the only remaining Cold-War structure in the world is an inevitable process of history. It is clear that the future trend will accord with this inevitability. But Korea-US relations will only be improved by overcoming many difficulties. There is a possibility that an extremely acute tension will be created in the first half of 1999 due to the missile issue, the "suspicion of underground nuclear facility" and the neglect of implementation of the Korea-US agreement on the part of the United States. It is estimated, however, that such a crisis will, on the contrary, accelerate the building up of peace. In short, the situation on the Korean peninsula after the Cold War can be summarized as the sum total of an intense diplomatic game, a war without gunshot and without resorting to arms, in which both sides rack their brains for winning a victory. Who will, after all, emerge victorious in this war, a war without gunshot? January 25, 1999 Jon Chol Nam 3 I. Missile Clamour and Prospect of the "Brain War" between Korea and the United States 1. A Ballistic Missile or an Artificial Satellite? The Flying Object Was an Artificial Satellite Korea launched a flying object on August 31, 1998. What on earth was it? At first, the US army in Japan informed the Japanese side that it was a ballistic missile. When it was confirmed that an object flew over the Japanese Islands and fell on the Pacific Ocean, Japan was thrown into utter confusion--"Was it a missile attack by north Korea? If it is a military threat, we can never tolerate it." However, on September 4, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Korea had successfully launched an artificial satellite. From then on, the clamour, "Was it a missile or an artificial satellite?" broke out. It came to light later that it was none other than the launching of an artificial satellite. The following is the circumstance of the event. On September 4, an authority of the Russian space monitoring agency declared, "It was confirmed that the first artificial satellite of north Korea had entered the earth's orbit. At present, it is turning round in an elliptical orbit--218.82 km perigee and 6,978.2 km apogee at a cycle of 165 minutes and 6 seconds." Vice-President Mirov of the Russian Space Association said, "The technology of the rocket itself is very high and amazing." (ITAR-Tass.) On September 4, Xinhua News Agency reported, "The satellite was successfully launched and entered orbit." (Radio Beijing.) On September 4, some high-ranking officials of the United States said that there was a possibility that Korea had test-launched and placed a certain object in the earth's orbit. On September 10, Hong Sun Yong, south Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade stated at a press interview during his visit to the United States that the launching of an artificial satellite was 4 actually attempted by using a new-type ballistic missile rocket, but it seemed to have failed. On September 11, Craig Thomas, Chairman of the East Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, explained at a public hearing that according to the judgement of the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), north Korea had launched a satellite into the earth's orbit, but it was not working. A high-ranking official of the US government said that there were data of its flight that, right from its lift-off, differed from those of the test of a ballistic missile and they coincided with the explanation of the Korean side. The CIA also passed the same judgement on the analysis of the trajectory. (Washington Times.) On September 14, the US government officially announced that an artificial satellite was loaded in place of the warhead, but it failed to enter orbit. On September 15, an informal conference of the UN Security Council issued a statement demanding that Korea exercise "self- restraint", but it confirmed that "any country has a legitimate right to promote a plan for using the space for a peaceful purpose." On September 17, the south Korean authorities called a security meeting and made a final conclusion that "an attempt was made to place a small artificial satellite in orbit by launching a three-stage rocket, but it ended in failure." These statements show that it was internationally recognized that the flying object launched by Korea was not a ballistic missile but an artificial satellite. Was the Launching of the Artificial Satellite a Success or a Failure? Did Korea, then, succeed or fail in launching the artificial satellite? Now that it was internationally recognized to be an artificial satellite, whether it was a success or a failure is not so important here. But still, it is not meaningless to verify it. The state-run Korean Central News Agency reported on September 4, 1998, the "success of launching" as follows: 5 1) A launch vehicle was lifted in the direction of 86 degrees at the launching site of Musudan-ri, Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province, at 12:07 on August 31. Four minutes and 53 seconds later, it was put in the expected orbit. 2) The launch vehicle was three-staged: the first stage dropped off 95 seconds after its take-off and fell beyond territorial waters of the Korean East Sea at latitude 40°51' north and longitude 132°40' east; the second stage opened the streamlined part of the head 144 seconds later, was cast off 266 seconds later and dropped on the open sea of the Pacific Ocean at latitude 40°13' north and longitude 149° 07' east; the third stage placed the satellite in orbit 27 seconds after the second stage was cast off. 3) The satellite is turning round in an elliptical orbit, 218.82 km perigee and 6,978.2 km apogee from the earth, and its cycle is 165 minutes and 6 seconds. 4) The satellite is transmitting to the earth the melodies of the Song of General Kim Il Sung, the Song of General Kim Jong Il and the words Juche Korea in Morse code by 27 MHz. Korea announced that the satellite named Kwangmyongsong No. 1 had made the 100th orbit of the earth on September 13 and had been observed with naked eyes in the Korean sky at dawn on October 3 and 4.