Achieving Success Through Risk Management: Lessons from the Successful (and Disastrous) 1911 Discovery of the South Pole A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Hans Gude Office Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services Y O F C F O Y UC Berkeley September 26, 2012 U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 1 Appetite… Intuition… Tools & Methods… Objective assessments… Perception… One View of Risk Management’s Role Aw fudge! Darn that Risk Management. A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 7 An Alternate View Of Risk Management Providing practical, hands- on tools and guidance… Thanks, Risk Services! A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y A collaborative partner… To help you achieve success. U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 8 The Year is 1911… “The Last Place on Earth” A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 9 Antarctica… is the Highest, Driest, Windiest, Emptiest, A, B E KR E L E Y Coldest, A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y Most inhospitable, U U N I V S E R I T place on earth…. Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 10 Establishing a Base Camp A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 11 From Base Camp to the Pole and Back More than 2,000 miles RT A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 12 Achieving Success Through Risk Management: Lessons from the Successful (and Disastrous) 1911 Discovery of the South Pole A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Hans Gude Office Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services Y O F C F O Y UC Berkeley September 26, 2012 U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 13 U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, B E R K E L E Y Office of Ethics,Risk, and ComplianceServices 14 U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, B E R K E L E Y Office of Ethics,Risk, and ComplianceServices 15 What could possibly go wrong? A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 16 Are there any risks involved in this journey? A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 17 Can it be successful without thinking them all through? A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 18 And planning for them? A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 19 What Categories of Threat Could Jeopardize Getting to the Pole and Back in 1911? [White board] 1. The elements—cold, wind, snow, mountains, crevasses 2. Equipment—effectiveness, durability (boots, clothes, sledges) 3. Food—sufficient calories; access to it 4. Fuel—sufficient and available 5. Transportation over the ice—efficiency and reliability 6. Team—right temperament and physical ability 7. Health & Morale—Scurvy, blindness, keeping upbeat A, B E KR E L E Y 8. Route—minimize geologic constraints A L I F O R NI I F O R L A 9. Mapping—finding your way, knowing where you are Y O F C F O Y 10. Animals—managing, feeding, optimizing their use U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 20 Estimating the Magnitude of a Risk—What’s at Stake? Risks are typically assessed based on a combination of their: Potential impact (or consequence), and Likelihood of happening. A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 21 The British Team Robert Falcon Scott A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 22 The Norwegian Team Roald Amundsen A, B E KR E L E Y “SCOTT: BEG TO INFORM YOU FRAM PROCEEDING ANTARCTIC—AMUNDSEN." A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 23 What is these Explorers’ “Risk Appetite”? • How much risk are they willing to take on to achieve their objectives? • What’s the worst that could happen? • How could their appetite be communicated, say, to the crew? • What can they do to mitigate that risk to an A, B E KR E L E Y acceptable level? A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 24 Attitude—British vs. Norwegian Culture / View of Being a Attitude to Size of Man- Explorer Exploration Hero Nature Party Reports Hauling British / Romantic. Romantic Outside Large. Safety Horrendous Moral Scott Pluck and hero, nature. Enemy in numbers. difficulties and superiority of grit. A self- associated to be fought setbacks they human muscle affirming with suffering. and had, and there power. More adventure. conquered. never seems to manly.* be any bright spot. Norwegian / A matter of The hero is the Part of nature, Small—easier Always looking Futile toil. Amundsen technique man who which is to lead, for the silver and doesn't punish neither good reduced lining, even if technology. himself but nor bad; you tension, easier it is the sun Polar uses his simply have to to integrate shining for a exploration is cunning and know how to with nature. nanosecond in no big deal. intelligence to work with it; a blizzard. It’s just avoid trouble. to ally with it. A, B E KR E L E Y another ski tour. The survivor. "Adventure" is a sign of A L I F O R NI I F O R L A incompe- tence. Y O F C F O Y *Using dogs to pull all the sledges he thought unsporting. Better, Scott wrote, “…to face the hardships, dangers and difficulties with their unaided efforts.” U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 25 Amundsen: Why? Nansen: I've always found Experience teaches them it unwise to under- only one thing: That they are estimate the British. British and therefore pre-eminent. But nature is deaf to such things. She cannot hear the tunes of glory. A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Source: The Last Place on Earth, television mini-series, 1985. Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 26 Shackleton’s Routes to the Pole “Farthest South”: 88°23’, 112 miles from the pole. 1909 Nimrod Expedition Scott’s “Farthest South”: 82°23’, 1902 Discovery Expedition A, B E KR E L E Y A L I F O R NI I F O R L A Y O F C F O Y U U N I V S E R I T Office of Ethics, Risk, and Compliance Services 27 Team Food / Fuel Depots—Scott Built depots with no grid of markers, making the same mistake that others had before him.