Environmental Scan In support of Strategic Planning December, 2019 Prepared by the Office of Institutional Research and Integrated Planning Vision, Mission, Values UFV is built on our shared commitment to the university’s purpose, principles, and our future direction. With the adoption of our new statements of vision, mission, and values in 2019, our university has set a course for lasting endurance that will benefit generations to come, both locally and beyond. Our vision UFV will be known as a gathering place for learners, leaders, and seekers. We will pursue diverse pathways of scholarship, leading to community connection, reconciliation, and prosperity, locally and beyond. Our mission Engaging learners, transforming lives, building community. yoystexw ye totilthet, ayeqet kw’e shxwaylexws, thayt kw’e st’elt’elawtexw Our values Integrity | letse o sqwelewel We act honestly and ethically, upholding these values and ensuring our mission is delivered consistently. Inclusivity | lexwsq’eq’ostexw We welcome everyone, showing consideration and respect for all experiences and ideas. Community | st’elt’elawtexw We cultivate strong relationships, acting as a hub where all kinds of communities — educational, scholarly, local, global, and cultural — connect and grow. Excellence | ey shxweli We pursue our highest standard in everything we do, with determination and heart. The Tangram UFV uses the visual metaphor of the tangram when we represent our vision, mission, and values. Like building blocks of a UFV education, tangram shapes can be assembled into thousands of unique configurations and results, reflecting how a single institutional vision can embody many experiences, perspectives, and outcomes. Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Section I: Fraser Valley Demographics ........................................................................................................ 5 Regional Population .................................................................................................................................. 5 Regional K-12 Population .......................................................................................................................... 9 Six-Year Completion Rates by Fraser Valley School District ................................................................... 10 Transitions from Fraser Valley High Schools to Post-Secondary ............................................................ 13 Section II: UFV Demographics .................................................................................................................... 18 UFV Student Demographics .................................................................................................................... 18 Retention Rates ....................................................................................................................................... 30 Graduation Rates .................................................................................................................................... 33 Time to Graduation ................................................................................................................................. 34 Section III: UFV Student Survey Results .................................................................................................... 36 CUSC 2019 First-Year Student Survey ..................................................................................................... 36 CUSC 2018 Graduating Student Survey .................................................................................................. 41 National Survey of Student Engagement 2019 ....................................................................................... 48 Section IV: Labour Market Trends ............................................................................................................. 50 How is BC’s economy changing? ............................................................................................................. 50 BC Labour Market Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 50 Fraser Valley Compared to Mainland/Southwest and BC ...................................................................... 52 Fraser Valley Agriculture ......................................................................................................................... 54 Fraser Valley Residents Working Elsewhere ........................................................................................... 55 The Benefit of Post-Secondary Education .............................................................................................. 56 Supply of Post-Secondary Credentials in the Labour Market ................................................................. 58 UFV’s Impact ........................................................................................................................................... 62 Abbotsford-Mission Labour Market ....................................................................................................... 64 Industry in Local Communities ................................................................................................................ 65 Section V: External Factors ........................................................................................................................ 69 Social Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 69 Technology Trends .................................................................................................................................. 71 Economic Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 72 Environmental Trends ............................................................................................................................. 74 Political Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 76 1 Section VI: Comparisons with Other BC Post-Secondary Institutions ...................................................... 79 Student Headcount by Institution........................................................................................................... 79 Credentials Awarded ............................................................................................................................... 82 FTE Utilization Rates ............................................................................................................................... 83 Appendix: Existing Performance Measures............................................................................................... 85 I. UFV SEM Plan Update 2018/19 ........................................................................................................... 85 II. Ministry Accountability Measures ...................................................................................................... 92 2 Executive Summary We have collected and compiled data from a variety of sources: demographic data from the Fraser Valley and from University of the Fraser Valley (UFV) students, UFV student survey results, the labour market, external factors affecting the university, other BC post-secondary institutions, and UFV performance measures. We have tried to collect information that will be helpful to the strategic planning process into one single report. Since the beginning in 1974 (as Fraser Valley College) and up until November 2019, UFV has awarded 53,903 credentials to 41,994 students. The number of credentials awarded has continuously increased, with almost 2,700 credentials to over 2,400 students this past year. Looking forward, the population in the Fraser Valley will continue to grow and will form the base of our enrolment. The university aged population in the Fraser Valley is projected to increase by 10% from 2018 to 2038. This is a larger increase than for the Douglas College and Kwantlen Polytechnic University regions or for BC overall. The Indigenous1 population in Canada, British Columbia, and the Fraser Valley Regional District is younger, and growing at a much faster rate than the non-Indigenous population. Over the last ten years, the Fraser Valley has seen larger growth, and has a younger average age, for its Indigenous population than is the case in either BC or in Canada. In terms of census metropolitan areas, Abbotsford-Mission has the fourth highest proportion of visible minorities in the country, behind only Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary. Kindergarten to Grade 12 (K-12) enrolment projections from Fraser Valley (FV) school districts mirror this growth – from 2018 to 2028, grade 12 enrolments in our local school districts (including Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Fraser-Cascade, Langley, Mission, and Ridge Meadows) are projected to increase by 10.1%. Chilliwack (39.8%), Ridge Meadows (21.4%) and Abbotsford (14.4%) school districts account for the largest shares of growth (among Fraser Valley school districts) during this time. Over the last ten years (2008/09 to 2017/18), all FV school districts, with the exception of Mission, have seen an increase in six-year high school