ISLAMIST RADICALISATION THE CHALLENGE FOR EURO-MEDITERRANEAN RELATIONS EDITED BY MICHAEL EMERSON, KRISTINA KAUSCH AND RICHARD YOUNGS AUTHORS OMAYMA ABDEL-LATIF MURIEL ASSEBURG RUŞEN ÇAKIR SENEM AYDIN DÜZGIT ANA ECHAGÜE MICHAEL EMERSON KHALED AL-HASHIMI IBRAHIM EL HOUDAIBY KRISTINA KAUSCH NONA MIKHELIDZE ROBERT SPRINGBORG NATHALIE TOCCI RICHARD YOUNGS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS FRIDE MADRID The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. FRIDE is an independent European think tank based in Madrid that provides innovative thinking on Europe’s role on the international stage; its core research interests include democracy, human rights, peace and security. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors writing in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect those of CEPS, FRIDE or any other institution with which they are associated. This study was carried out with the kind support of the Fundacion Tres Culturas, Sevilla, and the Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid. CEPS’ programme in this area is supported by the Compagnia di San Paolo and the Open Society Institute, which are also gratefully acknowledged. Cover photo: Protest by the Islamic jihad in Bethlehem against the Danish newspaper cartoons, February 2006. ISBN 978-92-9079-865-1 © Copyright 2009, CEPS and FRIDE. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies and FRIDE. Centre for European Policy Studies FRIDE Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Calle Goya 5-7, Pasaje 2, E-28001 Madrid Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 Tel: 34 91 244 4740 Fax 34 91 244 47 41 CONTENTS Preface Richard Youngs and Michael Emerson........................................................... i Part I. The question 1. Is the EU contributing to re-radicalisation? Robert Springborg .......................................................................................... 1 Part II. Case studies in Islamist radicalisation 2. Trends in political Islam in Egypt Ibrahim El Houdaiby .................................................................................... 25 3. Understanding Hamas’s radicalisation Khaled Al-Hashimi ....................................................................................... 52 4. Trends in Salafism Omayma Abdel-Latif .................................................................................... 69 5. Turkey: A sustainable case of de-radicalisation? Senem Aydın Düzgit and Ruşen Çakır........................................................ 87 6. The radicalisation of moderate Islamist parties: Reality or chimera? Ana Echagüe............................................................................................... 108 Part III. European engagement? 7. Europe’s engagement with moderate Islamists Kristina Kausch.......................................................................................... 129 8. How can Europe engage with Islamist movements? Nona Mikhelidze and Nathalie Tocci ......................................................... 151 9. Conclusions: Dynamics in political Islam and challenges for European policies Muriel Asseburg......................................................................................... 170 About the Authors............................................................................................ 181 PREFACE RICHARD YOUNGS AND MICHAEL EMERSON ssues relating to political Islam continue to present challenges to European foreign policies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). I As EU policy has sought to come to terms with such challenges during the last decade or so political Islam itself has evolved. Experts point to the growing complexity and variety of trends within political Islam. Some Islamist organisations have strengthened their commitment to democratic norms and engaged fully in peaceable, mainstream national politics. Others remain wedded to violent means. And still others have drifted towards a more quietist form of Islam, disengaged from political activity. Political Islam in the MENA region presents no uniform trend to European policy- makers. Analytical debate has grown around the concept of ‘radicalisation’. This in turn has spawned research on the factors driving ‘de-radicalisation’, and conversely, ‘re-radicalisation’. Much of the complexity derives from the widely held view that all three of these phenomena are occurring at the same time. Even the terms themselves are contested. It has often been pointed out that the moderate–radical dichotomy fails fully to capture the nuances of trends within political Islam. Some analysts also complain that talk of ‘radicalism’ is ideologically loaded. At the level of terminology, we understand radicalisation to be associated with extremism, but views differ over the centrality of its religious–fundamentalist versus political content, and over whether the willingness to resort to violence is implied or not. Such differences are reflected in the views held by the Islamists themselves, as well as in the perceptions of outsiders. Whatever one’s stance on such questions of terminology, it is clear that political Islam presents dimensions that are disconcerting from the point of view of European interests. In November 2007, we published a | i ii | RICHARD YOUNGS & MICHAEL EMERSON volume that presented an analysis of how Islamist political parties viewed European foreign policy. That book was based on interviews conducted with some of the main Islamist parties espousing democratic norms across nine MENA states. Its conclusions were sobering. They revealed Islamists’ continuing mistrust of European intentions, disappointment with the EU’s failure to live up to its claim of being serious about promoting democratic reform in the Middle East and the perception that EU initiatives such as the European Neighbourhood Policy are more about excluding and containing Islamism than they are about inclusion and engagement. In this follow-up volume, we broaden our analysis to consider some of the trends within political Islam that appear to be less benign for European interests. We are interested here in the relationship between the ‘moderate’ and ‘less moderate’ ends of the Islamist spectrum. Two distinct dimensions of the latter present challenging, but different, policy considerations for the EU: first, those Islamist groups still committed to or actively engaged in violence; and second, those strands increasingly committed to a disengaged, apolitical form of doctrinally-pure Islam. This second trend may not be violent, but is invariably hostile in its doctrine to both the West and democracy, apparently uncompromising in its ideological principles and often reluctant to channel demands and articulate interests through the political process. Experts differ on the question of whether this second trend can be described as radicalisation. But it is clear that both dimensions – violent and quietist – raise important and difficult policy dilemmas for European policy-makers. An assessment of these dilemmas forms the backbone of this book. To this end, the book examines the following questions: • How does EU policy affect the balance between moderate and less moderate strands of political Islam in the MENA region? • Does the EU need to engage more specifically with the moderates? Is this the best means to assist de-radicalisation? Or is a selective focus on the moderates actually contributing to the growing exclusion, frustration and thus re-radicalisation of some Islamists? • If this latter interpretation is correct, how far and in what way should the EU be engaging with the less moderate end of the Islamist spectrum? Should it set any conditions for such engagement, and if so what kinds of conditions? If it sets no conditions, can EU engagement really contribute towards de-radicalisation or is it of little significance PREFACE | iii for trends in political Islam? If re-radicalisation is actually a misnomer and of no particular concern to European interests, what policy implication does this more critical reading have for EU strategy in the MENA region? This volume proceeds in three parts. First, Robert Springborg provides an overview of the mismatch between trends in re-radicalisation, on the one hand, and European readings of political developments in the Arab states of the southern Mediterranean, on the other. Second, a series of regional experts dissect trends in the MENA region and reflect on what these mean for European policies. Ibrahim El Houdaiby investigates the roots of persistent radicalism in Egypt; Khaled Al-Hashimi examines the factors driving Hamas’s radicalism at the individual, social, governmental and international levels; and Omayma Abdel-Latif charts the fluidity in Salafism. Senem Aydin Düzgit and Ruşen Çakir question whether Turkey is really the successful case of de-radicalisation it is often presented to be. In the volume’s third part, European experts delve deeper into the nature of EU policies. Ana Echagüe argues that fears that the EU is contributing to re-radicalisation are exaggerated. Kristina Kausch critiques the EU’s failure to fulfil its commitment to engage with moderate Islamists. Nona Mikhelidze