An Integrated Decision-Making Framework for Transportation Architectures: Application to Aviation Systems Design A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty by Jung-Ho Lewe In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology April 2005 An Integrated Decision-Making Framework for Transportation Architectures: Application to Aviation Systems Design Approved by: Daniel P. Schrage, Ph.D. Daniel A. DeLaurentis, Ph.D. Professor, Aerospace Engineering, Com- Assistant Professor, Aeronautics and As- mittee Chair tronautics, Purdue University Dimitri N. Mavris, Ph.D. Alan Wilhite, Ph.D. Professor, Aerospace Engineering, Co- Langley Professor, National Institute of advisor Aerospace Amy R. Pritchett, Sci.D. Mark D. Moore Associate Professor, Aerospace Engineer- Personal Air Vehicle Sector Manager, ing NASA Vehicle Systems Program Date Approved: April 18, 2005 To my family “There's nothing new under the sun, but there are lots of old things we don't know.” iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee for their guidance and support in the course of my research. It was their vision, intelligence, expertise, dedication, academic rigor and in- tegrity that saw me through. Thank you again Drs. Schrage, Mavris, Pritchett, DeLaurentis, Wilhite and Mr. Moore. I truly consider this dissertation a culmination of your efforts with only my two cents. There are many smart and friendly students and colleagues whose contributions I also appreciate; each member of the SATS competition team, the PAVE project team and the MIDAS squad. I have enjoyed the friendship and collaboration which I wish to continue, and I thank you all. I also want to hug my family wholeheartedly. My precious son Eric who still believes every daddy goes to school and earns a living by studying, my beloved wife Katie—what can I say about you? You're my all in all—and my loving parents across the sea who have always prayed for me, I love you for ever, ever and ever. ¢¡¤£¦¥¨§ © Atlanta, GA, Spring 2005 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION . iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . iv LIST OF TABLES . ix LIST OF FIGURES . xii LIST OF SYMBOLS OR ABBREVIATIONS . xvii SUMMARY . xxi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION . 1 1.1 Motivation . 2 1.1.1 Need for a New System . 2 1.1.2 Challenges in PAV Design . 6 1.2 Research Statement . 10 1.2.1 Importance of Design Requirements . 11 1.2.2 Research Objective Preview . 12 1.2.3 Thesis Organization . 12 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW . 14 2.1 Tools and Methodologies for Requirement Synthesis . 15 2.1.1 Systems Engineering Tools . 15 2.1.2 Other Approaches . 19 2.2 Analysis-Based Methods for Concept Evaluation . 20 2.2.1 Generic Approaches . 20 2.2.2 Utility Focused Approach . 22 2.3 Simulation of the Transportation System . 24 2.3.1 Classification . 24 2.3.2 Large-Scale Models . 25 2.4 Summary . 28 2.4.1 Synopsis of Literature Review . 28 v 2.4.2 Research Questions and Hypotheses . 29 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION . 32 3.1 Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation . 33 3.1.1 Agent . 33 3.1.2 Architecting Multi-Agent Systems . 35 3.1.3 Recent Applications of ABM/S . 38 3.1.4 Summary . 40 3.2 Theory of Transportation Demand . 41 3.2.1 Utility and Indifference Curve . 41 3.2.2 Derivation of Transportation Demand . 43 3.2.3 Trip Distribution Models . 47 3.2.4 Natural vs. Induced Growth in Transportation Demand . 52 3.2.5 Summary and Issues . 55 3.3 Probabilistic Choice Theory . 57 3.3.1 Random Utility . 57 3.3.2 Binary Choice Models . 59 3.3.3 Multinomial Choice Models . 63 CHAPTER 4 APPROACH . 69 4.1 Analysis of the National Transportation System . 70 4.1.1 The Physical Extent . 70 4.1.2 The Traveling Public . 74 4.1.3 Economic Trends in Transportation . 77 4.2 Entity-Centric Abstraction . 81 4.2.1 Motivation and Conceptual Foundation . 81 4.2.2 Modeling Entities . 87 4.2.3 Synthesis into Network of Networks . 95 4.2.4 Recapitulation . 98 4.3 Construction of the Virtual World . 100 vi 4.3.1 Entity Representations and Integration . 100 4.3.2 The Legitimacy of the Virtual World . 111 CHAPTER 5 IMPLEMENTATION . 119 5.1 Data Sources and Model Scope . 120 5.1.1 Database Review . 120 5.1.2 Model Scope . 121 5.2 Transportation Environment . 124 5.2.1 Establishment of Four Locales . 124 5.2.2 Macroscopic Modeling of Transportation Activities . 128 5.2.3 Transportation Resources . 135 5.2.4 Exogenous Entities . 141 5.3 Transportation Stakeholders as Agents . 150 5.3.1 Transportation Consumers . 150 5.3.2 Transportation Service Providers . 161 5.3.3 Mode and Route Selection . 165 5.4 Development of Simulation Framework . 168 5.4.1 Simulation Code: Mi . 168 5.4.2 Verification . 175 CHAPTER 6 SIMULATION STUDIES . 177 6.1 Baseline Scenario and Calibration of the Model . 178 6.1.1 Preparation of the Calibration Datums . 178 6.1.2 The Baseline Model . 187 6.1.3 Scenario Preview and Simulation Strategy . 196 6.2 Sensitivity Analysis . 199 6.2.1 Model Parameters and Socioeconomic Conditions . 199 6.2.2 Analysis of Vehicle-level Design Requirements . 205 6.2.3 Tradeoff Study for System-level Technologies . 210 6.3 Case Studies . 214 vii CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS . 218 7.1 Recapitulation of the Thesis . 219 7.2 Contributions and Recommendations . 222 7.3 Concluding Remarks . 223 APPENDIX A PERSONAL AIR VEHICLE RELATED EFFORTS . 225 APPENDIX B MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING . 239 APPENDIX C REFERENCE DATA . 255 APPENDIX D DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT: MIDAS . 260 REFERENCES . 271 VITA . 281 viii LIST OF TABLES 1 Systems Engineering Standards . 16 2 Classification of Simulation Models in Transportation . 24 3 Typical O-D Matrix . 47 4 Ground Transportation System . 71 5 NPIAS Categories of Airports . 72 6 Recent Trends of Demographic Statistics . 74 7 Transportation Mode Choice . 77 8 Expenditure Distribution of a Reference Consumer Unit . 78 9 Hierarchy Descriptors . 88 10 Transportation Stakeholders . 91 11 Exogenous Entities . 95 12 Vehicle Attributes . 102 13 Portal Time Attributes . 103 14 Enroute Space Entity . 103 15 Historical Household Income in Percent Distribution . 107 16 The Modeling Scope of the Virtual World . 122 17 Summary Statistics of Four Locales . 127 18 Ci j Values for the Four Locales . 129 19 Resource Entity Dependency on Mission Segments . 133 20 Portal Attributes of Mode CAR . 135 21 Vehicle and Enroute Space Attributes of Mode CAR . 136 22 Airport Processing Time in Hours . 137 23 ALN Portal Accessibility . 137 24 Number of Connection Stops (NC) . 138 25 Flight Time Data for Selected Market Pairs . 139 26 Portal Accessibility for Mode GA . 140 27 Airport Processing Time in Hours . ..