Spatial Associations between Land Use and Infectious Disease: WNV in the United States and Zika in Colombia A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Josh S. Weinstein Master of Science George Mason University, 2003 Bachelor of Science George Mason University, 1998 Director: Timothy F. Leslie, Associate Professor Department of Geography and GeoInformation Sciences Fall Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia Copyright 2017, Josh S. Weinstein All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION To my incredible family in Trish, Ethan, and Hailey, whose encouragement and patience fueled the completion of this research. A special thank you to my committee in Dr. Timothy Leslie, Dr. Cara Frankenfeld, Dr. Arie Croitoru, and Dr. Anthony Stefanidis. Dr. Leslie, in particular, never served answers on a platter, but rather advised in such a way that I discovered answers myself. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................................... xi ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................... xii 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 5 2.1 Social and Economic Impacts ................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Scales of VBID Transmission.................................................................................................. 8 2.3 VBID Dynamics .......................................................................................................................... 10 2.4 LULC and VBID Dynamics..................................................................................................... 12 2.4.1 Agricultural Development ........................................................................................... 14 2.4.2 Urbanization ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.4.3 Deforestation ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.5 VBID Monitoring ....................................................................................................................... 17 2.6 Measuring LULC and VBID Associations ....................................................................... 21 2.6.1 Review of Existing Research ...................................................................................... 21 2.6.2 Field Research ................................................................................................................... 22 2.6.3 Remote Sensing ................................................................................................................ 22 2.6.4 LULC Classification ......................................................................................................... 23 2.6.5 LULC Uncertainty ............................................................................................................ 25 2.6.6 Geographic and Thematic Scales ............................................................................. 28 2.7 Research Opportunity ............................................................................................................ 30 3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................. 32 iv 3.1 Consolidation of LULC Classes ........................................................................................... 33 3.1.1 Landscape Metrics .......................................................................................................... 34 3.1.2 Principal Component Analysis .................................................................................. 39 3.1.3 Regression Analysis ....................................................................................................... 40 3.2 Spatial Associations over Time .......................................................................................... 42 3.3 Spatial Associations across Space..................................................................................... 43 4 DATA ........................................................................................................................................................ 44 4.1 VBID ................................................................................................................................................ 45 4.1.1 West Nile Virus ................................................................................................................. 47 4.1.2 Zika ......................................................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Land Use ........................................................................................................................................ 51 4.3 Average Temperature and Elevation .............................................................................. 53 4.4 Population .................................................................................................................................... 54 4.5 Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................ 54 4.6 Administrative Units ............................................................................................................... 54 4.7 Variable Visualization ............................................................................................................ 55 5 RESULTS................................................................................................................................................. 60 5.1 Spatial Associations (RQ1) ................................................................................................... 68 5.2 Spatial Associations over Time (RQ2) ............................................................................ 74 5.3 Spatial Associations across Space (RQ3) ...................................................................... 80 5.4 Summary of Research Question Results ........................................................................ 83 6 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................... 86 7 APPENDIX I ........................................................................................................................................... 91 8 APPENDIX II ......................................................................................................................................... 93 9 APPENDIX III..................................................................................................................................... 103 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 105 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Major transitions in human interaction with the land increased frequency of contact with pathogenic vectors (McMichael 2004). ................................................................ 12 Table 2. Human behaviors and activities manifest as VBID emergence drivers (McMichael 2004)....................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 3. VBIDs and associated emergence driver (Wilcox and Ellis 2006). ................... 14 Table 4. GlobCovers extensive class set accounts for gradual LU transitions compared to GLC-SHARE. ....................................................................................................................... 24 Table 5. Temporal alignment of data and data sources each study area. ........................ 44 Table 6. Consolidation of 23 GlobCover classes into eight Research Classes. ............... 52 Table 7. Consolidation of 11 GLC-SHARE classes into eight Research Classes. ............ 53 Table 8. Correlation matrix for Colombian independent variables. ................................... 59 Table 9. Proportion abundance of each Research Class in the contiguous United States during 2014. .................................................................................................................................... 68 Table 10. PCA component matrix based on the linear density landscape metric. ...... 69 Table 11. PCA eigenvalues based on the linear density landscape metric...................... 69 Table 12. Negative binomial regression table based on the linear density landscape metric...............................................................................................................................................................