The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections A Henry Jackson Society Briefing May 2014 Published in May 2014 by The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society 8th Floor, Parker Tower 43-49 Parker Street London WC2B 5PS Registered charity no. 1140489 Tel: +44 (0)20 7340 4520 www.henryjacksonsociety.org © The Henry Jackson Society 2014 The Henry Jackson Society All rights reserved The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily indicative of those of Th e Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections A Henry Jackson Society Briefing ISBN 978-1-909035-15-7 £10.00 where sold All rights reserved Front Cover Image: The European Parliament in Brussels (© querbeet/iStockPhoto.com) The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections AUTHOR | AUTHOR A Henry Jackson Society Briefing May 2014 The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society is a cross-partisan think-tank based in London. 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Acknowledgements The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections Executive Summary In the wake of the Eurozone crisis, the rise of I The Netherlands: anti-immigration Party for ‘outsider’ parties from both ends of the political Freedom (PVV) (16%); anti-austerity Socialist spectrum has increased concerns over the future Party (14%); total (30%); viability of the European project. In some countries, I Sweden: Eurosceptic Left Party (10.8%); populist traditionally fringe parties have been able to force right Sweden Democrats (10.0%); total (20.8%). their way into the political mainstream. Ahead of the elections between 22 and 25 May 2014, which look 14 countries feature only one popular ‘outsider’ party. Of these likely to test this at a European level, this report parties, UKIP is polling the most favourably examines these rising political parties. I These ‘outsider’ parties are: UKIP (24.7%); the Danish People's Party (DF) (24%); France’s The report identifies 25 parties in 19 EU member National Front (21.5%); the Freedom Party Austria states which belong to the fringe left-wing GUE-NGL, (FPO) (21%); Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S) right-wing EFD and non-aligned NI blocs within the (21%); the Progressive Party of Working People in European Parliament. All have been predicted either Cyprus (AKEL) (20%); Lithuania’s Order and to win 10% (or more) of the national vote or to rank Justice Party (20%); Ireland’s Sinn Féin (19%); the in the top three most successful parties/coalitions in Finns Party (18%); Hungary’s Jobbik (16%); Spain’s the most recent national opinion polls (as of 1 April United Left (14%); the Democratic Unitarian 2014). The report provides comprehensive profiles of Coalition in Portugal (CDU) (12%); Bulgaria these ‘outsider’ parties and analyses key trends found among them. Without Censorship (10%); and, the Croatian Labourists – Labour Party (HL-SR) (10%). KEY FINDINGS Fringe blocs ‘Outsider’ parties and countries Non-aligned parties were most commonly identified, followed Four ‘outsider’ parties are polling a quarter (or more) of the closely by those in the furthest left bloc, while few belong to the national vote furthest right bloc I The pro-Russia Harmony Centre (Latvia, 37%); I 11 out of the 25 parties identified are NI; 10 the radically anti-austerity SYRIZA (Greece, parties belong to the GUE-NGL; and four belong 25.4%); populist ANO 2011 (Czech Republic, to the EFD. 24.8%); and the Eurosceptic United Kingdom National Parliamentary representation Independence Party (UKIP) (24.7%). Almost all parties (23/25) are represented in their respective Greece is the only country where three ‘outsider’ parties are national parliaments; only UKIP and The River have no MPs predicted to secure 10% (or more), polling almost half (49.7%) I Two parties have 30% (or more) of available of the national vote between them seats: AKEL (19 of 56 seats, 33.9%) and the I SYRIZA (25.4%); new anti-establishment party Harmony Centre (31/100, 31%); The River (13.6%); and fascist Golden Dawn I Three parties have between 20 and 29%: (10.7%). SYRIZA (71/300, 23.7%); ANO 2011 (47/200, Four countries feature two popular ‘outsider’ parties. In order of 23.5%); and FPO (40/183, 21.9%); predicted national vo te share (highest–lowest), they are: Latvia; I Seven parties have between 10% and 19%; the the Czech Republic; the Netherlands; and Sweden remaining 11 have fewer than 10%; I Latvia: Harmony Centre (37%); nationalist I Some of the most well-known ‘outsider’ parties agrarian Union of Green and Farmers (ZZS) hold a relatively small proportion of seats: PVV, (17%); total (54%); for example, holds 12/150 (8%); Golden Dawn I Czech Republic: ANO 2011 (24.8%); far-left holds 18/300 (6%); and the National Front has Czech Communist Party (CPBM) (14.8%); total the lowest level of those parties with (39.6%); parliamentary representation at 2/577 (0.3%). i The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections 19 of the 25 parties have competed in at least two recent Controversies parliamentary elections 11 of the 25 parties have been involved in religious I 12 increased their share of the vote: SYRIZA (by hatred-related controversies 23 percentage points) and the Finns Party (15) I The majority of these parties (8/11) have a saw the largest increase; UKIP saw the smallest history of anti-Muslim-related controversies or increase (0.9); policies (FPO; DF; Finns Party; National Front; I Six saw their vote share decrease: ZZS (by 7.5) PVV; Socialist Party; Sweden Democrats; UKIP); and PVV (5.4) saw the largest decrease; a smaller number have been involved in I One party’s (CDU) vote share remained the anti-Semitism-related controversies, with four same. including members censured for Holocaust denial or anti-Semitic conspiracy theory (National European representation Front; Golden Dawn; SYRIZA; Jobbik); Four of the 25 parties failed to secure seats in the European I Of these 11 parties, SYRIZA is the only Parliament in the June 2009 elections, yet have since increased GUE-NGL member. in popularity by between two- and twenty-fold Nine of the 25 parties have been involved in racism-related I They are: Golden Dawn (won 0.5% in 2009; controversies predicted 10.7% in 2014); ZZS (3.8%, 2009; I The majority of these relate to immigrants from predicted 17% in 2014); Sweden Democrats Africa or Asia, with MPs or candidates from eight (3.3% in 2009; predicted 10% in 2014); and Sinn parties (FPO; DF; Finns Party; National Front; Féin (11.2% in 2009; predicted 19% in 2014). Golden Dawn; PVV; Sweden Democrats; UKIP) Policy positions involved; in addition, two parties (National Front; 16 of the 25 parties can be described as ‘Eurosceptic’ Jobbik) have been criticised for anti-Roma I Anti-EU sentiments identified across all three remarks and/or policy suggestions; fringe blocs range from calls to renegotiate I All are members of EFD or NI. current treaty commitments to demands for an Nine of the 25 parties have been involved in controversies immediate exit from the political union. involving far-right/neo-Nazi/Nazi links 11 of the 25 parties can be identified as ‘anti-immigration’ I Of these, two thirds have seen party members or I Anti-immigration sentiments identified in the associates accused of using Neo-Nazi/Nazi non-aligned and furthest right bloc range from imagery including Nazi salutes or songs (Finns parties calling for an end to immigration from all Party; National Front; Golden Dawn; Jobbik; Muslim-majority countries (i.e. PVV; DF) to ZZS; Socialist Party); I European immigration reform returning powers Of these nine, the Socialist Party is the only to national governments (i.e. The River). GUE-NGL member. 11 of the 25 parties prioritise opposition to NATO Eight of the 25 parties have been involved in corruption-related controversies I The majority (8/11) belong to the furthest left I bloc; the remaining three are Sweden Democrats, Half of these parties belong to GUE-NGL; I Golden Dawn and the Finns Party. Two (Bulgaria without Censorship; The River) can be described as anti-corruption. Nine of the 25 parties can be described as anti-corruption Six of the 25 parties have been involved in homophobia-related I Half of these were formed after the 2009 controversies European elections: M5S (2009); ANO 2011; I Bulgaria Without Censorship (2014); and The All are members of EFD or NI; I River (2014). MPs from two of these parties have submitted unsuccessful bills to their country’s national Eight of the 25 parties prioritise criticism of EU anti-austerity parliament: calling for a ban on the “promotion measures of sexual deviations” (Jobbik); or forbidding Gay I Three quarters of these parties belong to the Pride parades, public speeches, or campaign GUE-NGL bloc; the remaining two are Golden materials supporting LGBT rights (Order and Dawn and M5S. Justice Party).