The effective and ethical development of artificial intelligence: An opportunity to improve our wellbeing. Report for the Australian Council of Learned Academies, www.acola.org. EXPERT WORKING GROUP Professor Toby Walsh FAA (Co-chair) Professor Neil Levy FAHA (Co-chair) Professor Genevieve Bell FTSE Professor Anthony Elliott FASSA Professor James Maclaurin Professor Iven Mareels FTSE Professor Fiona Wood AM FAHMS © Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) ISBN 978-0-6483303-2-5 (print) ISBN 978-0-6483303-3-2 (digital) This work is copyright. All material published or otherwise created by the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) is licensed under a Creative Commons – Attribution – Non-Commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) licence. DATE OF PUBLICATION July 2019 PUBLISHER Australian Council of Learned Academies Level 6, 436 St Kilda Road Melbourne Victoria 3004 Australia Telephone: +61 (0)3 9864 0923 www.acola.org SUGGESTED CITATION Walsh, T., Levy, N., Bell, G., Elliott, A., Maclaurin, J., Mareels, I.M.Y., Wood, F.M., (2019) The effective and ethical development of artificial intelligence: An opportunity to improve our wellbeing. Report for the Australian Council of Learned Academies, www.acola.org. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF COUNTRY ACOLA acknowledges the Traditional Owners and custodians of the lands on which our company is located and where we conduct our business. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging. REPORT DESIGN Lyrebird [email protected] ii AUTHORS Professor Toby Walsh FAA Professor Neil Levy FAHA Professor Genevieve Bell FTSE Professor Anthony Elliott FASSA Professor James Maclaurin Professor Iven Mareels FTSE Professor Fiona Wood AM FAHMS Supported by Dr Alexandra James, Dr Benjamin Nicoll, Dr Marc Rands, Michelle Steeper, Dr Lauren Palmer and the generous contributions of many experts throughout Australia, New Zealand and internationally as acknowledged throughout the report. A full list of contributors can be found in the written submissions section of the report. PROJECT MANAGEMENT Dr Lauren Palmer Dr Angus Henderson HORIZON SCANNING iii Working Together The Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) combines the strengths of the four Australian Learned Academies The Australian Academy of the Humanities (AAH) is The Australian Academy of Science (AAS) is a private the national body for the humanities in Australia, organisation established by Royal Charter in 1954. championing the contribution that humanities, It comprises more than 500 of Australia’s leading arts and culture make to national life. It provides scientists, elected for outstanding contributions independent and authoritative advice, including to to the life sciences and physical sciences. The government, to ensure ethical, historical and cultural Academy recognises and fosters science excellence perspectives inform discussions regarding Australia’s through awards to established and early career future challenges and opportunities. It promotes researchers, provides evidence-based advice to and recognises excellence in the disciplines that assist public policy development, organises scientific provide the nation’s expertise in culture, history, conferences, and publishes scientific books and languages, linguistics, philosophy and ethics, journals. The Academy represents Australian science archaeology and heritage. The Academy plays a internationally, through its National Committees for unique role in promoting international engagement Science, and fosters international scientific relations and research collaboration, and investing in the through exchanges, events and meetings. The next generation of humanities researchers. Academy promotes public awareness of science and www.humanities.org.au its school education programs support and inspire primary and secondary teachers to bring inquiry- based science into classrooms around Australia. www.science.org.au ACOLA receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Education and Training. By providing a forum that brings together great minds, broad perspectives and knowledge, ACOLA is the nexus for true interdisciplinary cooperation to develop integrated problem solving and cutting edge thinking on key issues for the benefit of Australia. www.acola.org The Academy (ASSA) promotes excellence in the social The Australian Academy of Technology and sciences and in their contribution to public policy. Engineering is an independent thinktank The social sciences are a group of like-minded academic that helps Australians understand and use disciplines that work on systematic development of technology to solve complex problems. logic and evidence to understand human behaviour We bring together Australia’s leading experts in in its social setting, including the nature of economic, technology, engineering and science to provide political, and community activity and institutions. impartial, practical and evidence-based advice on how ASSA is an independent, interdisciplinary body to achieve sustainable solutions and advance prosperity. of over 650 Fellows, elected by their peers for We champion STEM excellence and contribute their distinguished achievements and exceptional robust and practical thinking to Australia’s contributions across 18 disciplines. big debates. Like you, we’re curious about the ASSA coordinates the promotion of research, teaching world and want to create a better future. and advice in the social sciences, promotes national We are a Learned Academy made up of and international scholarly cooperation across almost 900 Fellows elected by their peers. disciplines and sectors, comments on national needs www.applied.org.au and priorities in the social sciences and provides advice to government on issues of national importance. Established in 1971, replacing its parent body the Social Science Research Council of Australia, founded in 1942, ASSA is an autonomous, non-governmental organisation, devoted to the advancement of knowledge and research in the various social sciences. www.assa.edu.au HORIZON SCANNING SERIES We live in a time of rapid change; change that is driven by developments in science and technology and challenged by our capacity to adapt in the present and prepare for the future. Commissioned by the Australian Government National Science and Technology Council and Australia’s Chief Scientist, Horizon Scanning reports present independent and timely analyses to guide decision makers through the decade ahead. Horizon Scanning reports by the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) draw on the deep disciplinary expertise from within Australia’s Learned Academies to analyse the future, navigate change and highlight opportunities for the nation. As interdisciplinary studies, ACOLA’s reports include economic, social, cultural and environmental perspectives to provide well-considered findings that inform complete policy responses to significant scientific and technological change. This project has been supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (project number CS170100008); the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science; and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. ACOLA collaborates with the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences and the New Zealand Royal Society Te Apārangi to deliver the interdisciplinary Horizon Scanning reports to government. Also in the Horizon Scanning Series The role of energy storage in Australia’s future energy supply mix Published 2017 The future of precision medicine in Australia Published 2018 Synthetic biology in Australia: An outlook to 2030 Published 2018 vi vii CONTENTS Figures xii Tables xii Boxes xiii Project aims 1 Executive summary 2 Key findings 8 Introduction 14 Chapter 1: A world of artificial intelligence 20 1.1 Overview of artificial intelligence 20 1.1.1 Promise 22 1.1.2 Data 22 1.1.3 International context 23 1.1.4 Emergence, impact and governance of AI 27 1.2 Improving our wellbeing 29 1.2.1 4Ds (dirty, dull, dangerous and difficult) 31 1.2.2 Measuring success 31 Chapter 2: AI in practice 32 2.1 Introduction 32 2.2 AI Technology 34 2.2.1 Machine learning 34 2.2.2 Natural language processing 35 2.2.3 Computing hardware 36 2.3 AI applications 38 2.3.1 Robotics 39 2.3.2 Manufacturing 40 2.3.3 Health and aged care 40 2.3.4 Arts and culture 43 2.3.5 Mining 44 2.3.6 Energy 45 2.3.7 Environment 46 2.3.8 Agriculture 47 2.3.9 Transport and mobility 51 2.3.10 Justice and law 52 2.3.11 Defence, security and emergency response 54 2.3.12 Government 57 2.3.13 FinTech 58 2.3.14 SMEs and start-ups 63 2.4 Realising the potential 65 viii Chapter 3: Society and the individual 68 3.1 Introduction 68 3.1.1 AI and the future of work: An overview of key issues 69 3.2 Employment and the workforce 72 3.2.1 Automation and the workforce 72 3.2.2 Productivity and changing employment 73 3.2.3 Ageing population 80 3.2.4 Changing centres of employment 80 3.3 Education, skills and training 80 3.3.1 Agile and transferrable skills. What are the skills and knowledge we need to foster? 80 3.3.2 The future of education 81 3.3.3 Micro credentials 84 3.3.4 Vocational training and lifelong learning 86 3.3.5 Next generation of AI researchers 87 3.4 AI and transformations of identity 90 3.4.1 Childhood development 90 3.4.2 The psychological impact of AI 91 3.5 Changing social interactions 93 3.5.1 Spoken and text-based dialogue systems 93 3.5.2 Digital-device-distraction syndrome 94 3.5.3 The use of algorithms in the provision of social services 94 3.6 Conclusion 95 Chapter