Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses www.rsis.edu.sg ISSN 2382-6444 | Volume 10, Issue 6 | June 2018 A JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH (ICPVTR) Feature Articles: The Terrorist Threat in Indonesia: From Jemaah Islamiyah to the ‘Islamic State’ Jamaah Ansharud Daulah and the Terrorist Threat in Indonesia Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters: A Catalyst for Recidivism Among Disengaged Terrorists Sylvene See Terrorist Threat to the 2018 World Cup in Russia Nodirbek Soliev Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 1 Building a Global Network for Security Editorial Note The Post -IS Global Threat Landscape The recent spate of terrorist attacks in called] Caliphate.” In retrospect, the Paris and Indonesia, the continuing battle between the San Bernardino attacks in late 2015 were military and IS-remnants in southern carried out by two brothers (Abdeslam Philippines, and the thwarting of over one brothers) and a husband-wife-team (Tashfeen dozen attacks in Malaysia, underscore the Malik and Syed Rizwan Farook) respectively. continuous terrorist threat from the Islamic Similarly, the Charlie Hebdo attack in October State (IS) terrorist group and its worldwide 2015 was carried out by two brothers, Saïd affiliates and associates. This also means that and Chérif Kouachi. Likewise, the Boston Wwhile IS is presently weak at the centre marathon bombing in 2013 was also the work (Levant), it is stronger at the periphery (wilayat of two Chechen brothers, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev or governorates). These attacks are consistent and Tamerlan Tsarnaev. Given such familial with IS strategy of spreading terror and links, in addition to the search for mayhem during the Islamic month of individual factors for radicalisation, the Ramadan, using its worldwide networks of academic community should also look into supporters and sympathisers. kinship and peer-to-peer factors in radicalisation where family members and Operationally, IS has privatised and urbanised friends can transpose extremist ideas on an the global terrorist threat to maximise the individual, bypassing several stages of impact of terrorist attacks and minimise the radicalisation and motivating them to act out of losses and costs. This is exemplified by the love, loyalty and trust. use of families and individuals as perpetrators of terrorist attacks which prevents early The other dimension of these attacks is the detection and fuels the group’s online urbanisation of terrorist attacks which has propaganda. The families involved in the been the main feature of global terrorism since multiple attacks in Indonesia — Church 9/11. Cities are not just the targets but also bombing and motorcycle-borne twin suicide incubators and sanctuaries for terrorist groups. attacks on a police check post in Surabaya Moreover, attacks in cities are high-impact and followed by a sword-and-suicide attack in generate a lot of ‘favourable’ propaganda for Pekanbaru, Sumatra on regional police terrorists. Terrorism is propaganda by the headquarters — belonged to the IS-linked deed and by targeting police check posts, militant group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) places of worships, shopping malls, which was designated a terrorist group by the pedestrians and other public places, IS is US State Department in January 2017. gaining ‘revenge’ and making up for the territorial losses in Iraq and Syria. By doing so, The trend of using radicalised families for it is forcing the home countries to ‘[over] react’ terrorist attacks is not entirely new. In a recent with strict counter-terrorism policies which in article, eminent Southeast Asia terrorism turn breeds resentment and fuels more expert, Sidney Jones has noted, “IS has violence It also gives more publicity to IS and always been a family affair where women are creates the impression that despite heavy the lionesses and children are the cubs of [so- losses the group remains strong and retains ADVISORY BOARD Editor-in-Chief Sara Mahmood Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Dr. Fernando Reinares Associate Editor Abdul Basit Professor of Security Studies Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Head of International Centre for Political Elcano Royal Institute Professor of Security Editor Vijayalakshmi Menon Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Violence and Terrorism Research Madrid, Spain Copyeditors Jennifer Dhanaraj Dr. Jolene Jerard Sylvene See Dr. John Harrison Research Fellow Associate Editor Journal of Transportation Design and Layout Okkie Tanupradja Deputy Head of International Centre for Security Political Violence and Terrorism Research The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses not of ICPVTR, RSIS,Volume NTU 9, or Issue the organisations4 | April 2017 to which the Dr. Stephen Sloan authors are affiliated. Articles may not be reproduced without prior Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Professor Emeritus, University of Oklahoma permission. Please contact the editors for more information at [email protected]. The editorial team also welcomes any feedback Associate Professor Lawrence J. Chastang, 2 or comments. Head of Policy Studies & Coordinator of Distinguished Professor of Terrorism Studies, National Security Studies Programme University of Central Florida Editorial Note The Post -IS Global Threat Landscape its global outreach. Moreover, in its article sheds light on areas where returning propaganda literature, IS glorifies these FTFs could leverage strongly-knit pockets of attackers as martyrs, heroes and icons to domestic support in various countries to encourage others to emulate similar tactics. conduct attacks. They could also serve as In this issue, two feature articles, discuss catalysts for recidivism or reactivation of different aspects of the terrorist threat in disengaged terrorists, by playing the role of Indonesia, the recent spate of attacks, recruiters, propagandists and trainers. including the prison siege and the motivations According to the author, these developments Wof the JAD detainees. In addition, they also could increase the risk of disengaged terrorists trace the evolution of the terrorist threat in the re-engaging with their former networks and country from being Jemaah Islamiyah activities, in comparison to de-radicalised dominated to ‘Islamic State’ focused. The terrorists. articles titled, The Terrorist Threat in Indonesia: From Jemaah Islamiyah to the Lastly, Nodirbek Soliev focuses on the surge ‘Islamic State’ and Jamaah Ansharud of IS online propaganda threatening attacks Daulah and the Terrorist Threat in on the upcoming World Cup event in Russia Indonesia argue for greater cooperation from June to July 2018. Russian authorities and collaboration between Southeast Asian have stepped up counter-terrorism efforts to states to mitigate the growing domestic thwart attacks targeting civilians, public terrorist threat. Considering the string of transportation systems and other locations attacks perpetrated by JAD members and during and in the run up to the event. The supporters, it is evident that IS has not been author states that the terrorist threat in Russia mortally wounded and has instead morphed could come from three major categories. First, into a stronger entity in isolated geographical IS’ Wilayah Qawqaz in the North Caucasus centres through its affiliates. This points has conducted multiple suicide bombings and towards a decentralisation of the threat and a knife attacks, indicating the group’s ability and need to focus on issues such as proliferation intention to target the event. Second, in April of smaller IS-linked networks and cells, family- 2017, Al-Qaeda-affiliated militants claimed based radicalisation and the involvement of their first attack in Russia, suggesting that Al- children in terrorism. Qaeda could seek competition with IS’ local affiliate in the North Caucasus. Lastly, the Another dimension of IS growing strength in radicalisation of segments of the Central Asian the periphery is the issue of returning Terrorist diaspora highlights the possibility of small- Foreign Fighters (FTFs) who pose a clear and scale lone-wolf attacks targeting the event. It present danger to the security of several remains critical for Russia to ensure security countries. This has generated an academic during the event and maintain local support for and policy debate on how to deal with involvement in the Syrian civil war. returning FTFs. The problem is further compounded by the lack of credible data on FTTs. Against this backdrop, Sylvene See’s ADVISORY BOARD Editor-in-Chief Sara Mahmood Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Dr. Fernando Reinares Associate Editor Abdul Basit Professor of Security Studies Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Head of International Centre for Political Elcano Royal Institute Professor of Security Editor Vijayalakshmi Menon Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Violence and Terrorism Research Madrid, Spain Copyeditors Jennifer Dhanaraj Dr. Jolene Jerard Sylvene See Dr. John Harrison Research Fellow Associate Editor Journal of Transportation Design and Layout Okkie Tanupradja Deputy Head of International Centre for Security Political Violence and Terrorism Research The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses not of ICPVTR, RSIS,Volume NTU 9, or Issue the organisations4 | April 2017 to which the Dr. Stephen Sloan authors are affiliated. Articles may not be reproduced without prior Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Professor Emeritus, University of Oklahoma permission.