DRAFT December 2017 TCG4: Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 Insights from NEET indicators TCG4/21 16-18 January 2018 Dusit Thani Dubai 133, Sheikh Zayed Road, Trade Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates 2 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators 1. Background SDG target 4.4 calls for a substantial increase in the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship. Three indicators1 are currently proposed to monitor the target but additional measures are still needed, especially on skills. The proportion of youth (aged 15-24 years) not in employment, education or training (NEET rate) is an indicator for SDG 8, “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all”.2 As such, this indicator provides insights about the proportion of youth who lack skills needed for a first job and could be considered as a valuable measure for target 4.4. In general, the risk for youth of being NEET is likely to be associated with low educational attainment and weak information-processing skills, such as poor literacy and numeracy. Hence, the highest level of education completed by youth should be very informative. Moreover, educational attainment is considered as the main determinant of wage levels - especially for youth - given that people with tertiary education, for example, usually earn higher wages than those with secondary or lower education. 2. Youth NEET and educational attainment This document briefly summarizes options for examination of NEET data in relation to target 4.4, based on a preliminary analysis by the UIS. Two types of analysis are proposed: Disaggregation of youth NEET by level of educational attainment Calculation of NEET rates by level of educational attainment Opportunities and challenges Opportunities include: Relevance and quality o Educational attainment is considered as a proxy for literacy and numeracy skills. o NEET is a well-established and well-known indicator given that it is SDG indicator 8.6.1. Coverage o NEET is regularly produced by ILO and data are currently available for nearly 100 countries. Challenges that require further investigation include: 1 Indicator 4.4.1: proportion of youth and adults with information and communications technology (ICT) skills, by type of skill. Indicator 4.4.2: percentage of youth/adults who have achieved at least a minimum level of proficiency in digital literacy skills. Indicator 4.4.3: youth/adult educational attainment rates by age group, economic activity status, levels of education and programme orientation. 2 Annex 1 presents the technical guidelines on NEET by ILO. 2 3 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators Standard setting for definition and method of calculation: what mechanisms are used by ILO for agreeing on standards? Could there be a possibility of partnership with the UIS in this regard? Expanding data coverage, especially to low- and middle-income countries.3 Refining NEET data to capture specific skills of interest for monitoring of SDG target 4.4. Data preparation for analysis The analytical part of this document is based on NEET data obtained from ILO in October 2017. The data were originally collected by countries through different surveys between 2000 and 2016.4 The data cover 75 countries and are disaggregated by sex, age group, level of education completed, urban/rural location, and employment status. ILO produces aggregate NEET counts and NEET rates by sex for the population aged 15-24 years. Based on available raw data, these two indicators (NEET counts and NEET rates) can be disaggregated by educational attainment (no schooling or ISCED 0; completed ISCED 1 or 2; completed ISCED 3 or 4; completed ISCED 5, 6, 7, or 8; completed any level of ISCED from 0 to 8), by age-group (15-24 years, 15-19 years, 20-24 years), by location (urban, rural, total), by employment status (unemployed, inactive, total), and by sex (female, male, both sexes). This brief presents the two indicators disaggregated by sex and educational attainment level for youth 15-24 years. 3. Summary of results It is possible to calculate over 40 indicators on NEET counts and rates by educational attainment and sex, and over 180 indicators if the dimensions of age-group, location and employment status are taken into account (see Annex 2 for examples). In addition, parity indices could also be produced. Table 1 presents the results of the calculation for countries with data, for the latest year available. Figure 1 shows the distribution of youth NEET by level of educational attainment. From that figure: The highest proportions (over 50%) of NEETs with educational attainment less than ISCED 1 or no schooling are found in low-income countries. Also in these countries, the proportion of NEETs with educational attainment of ISCED 1 or 2 is higher than the proportion of NEETS with educational attainment higher than ISCED 2. 3 In general, the calculation of NEETs requires the availability of household surveys collecting regularly data on employment, education and training (e.g. labor force survey), as well as access to micro datasets on the education status of youth (in school/out of school), the labour force status (employed/unemployed or inactive). A lack of data hinders the calculation of NEET in many countries, especially where statistical capacities are not advanced. Currently, the ILO database on NEET includes mostly OECD countries. 4 Labour force survey, household income/expenditure survey, population census, other household surveys, including core welfare indicators (poverty) surveys, monitoring survey of the modular and integrated survey of household living conditions, integrated household survey, living standards survey, and continuous multi-purpose household survey. ILO data sources on NEET include YouthSTATs (ILOSTAT), School-to-Work Transition Survey (ILO SWTS), and Child Labour Survey (ILO CLS). 3 4 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators Two thirds of all countries have a proportion of NEETs who completed ISCED 1, 2, 3 or 4 greater than 75%, and these countries include middle- to high-income countries. One fifth of all countries have a proportion of NEETs who completed tertiary education. While it is intuitive that high proportions of NEETs are associated with low levels of education completed, it is not possible from the data available to explain why in nearly 20% of the countries over 10% of NEETs have a tertiary education degree. Figure 2 presents NEET rates by educational attainment and sex. From that figure: NEET rates by educational attainment are smaller in middle- to high-income countries than in low-income countries (except Madagascar). The range of NEET rates over the levels of education completed also shows the same pattern across income levels. Females tend to have higher NEET rates, especially in low-income countries. 4. Next steps Analysis of the links between educational attainment level and NEET rates offers insights into the distribution of skills for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship and on the benefits of attaining higher levels of education. This document presents some options for analysis based on a limited number of indicators. Further study is needed to make full use of the data and to explain certain findings, for example with regard to the prevalence of NEET among youth with tertiary education. 4 5 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators Figure 1: Distribution of NEETs 15-24 years by educational attainment, both sexes (latest year available) Note: Countries are sorted by the proportion of NEETs who completed less than ISCED 1 or who have no schooling. 6 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators Figure 2: NEET rates by educational attainment and sex, population 15-24 years, latest year available Note: Countries are sorted by the NEET rate among 15- to 24-year-olds who completed less than ISCED 1 or who have no schooling (left half of graph). Countries without data for “Less than ISCED 1 or no schooling” are sorted by the NEET rate among 15- to 24-year-olds who completed ISCED 5, 6, 7 or 8. 7 TCG4/21 Measuring progress on SDG target 4.4 – Insights from NEET indicators Table 1: NEET rates and proportion of NEETs by educational attainment and sex, 15-24 years (latest year available) NEET rates for youth (15-24 years) by educational attainment and by sex Proportion of youth (15-24 years) NEET by educationnal attainment and by sex No schooling or Early Total NEET No schooling or Early Completed ISCED 1 or 2 Completed ISCED 3 or 4 Completed ISCED 5, 6, 7 or 8 Level unknown Completed ISCED 1 or 2 Completed ISCED 3 or 4 Completed ISCED 5, 6, 7 or 8 Level unknown Total (NEET count) childhood education (all levels together + unknown) childhood education Country Year Country Year Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Both Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes Angola 2011 11.1 5.6 8.7 10.8 7.7 9.1 36.9 22.3 29.8 12.2 7.6 10.0 Angola 2011 46.5 30.8 40.6 37.6 53.1 42.9 15.5 15.4 15.4 0.4 1.5 0.8 226 130 357 Argentina 2014 58.6 44.1 48.9 25.2 13 18.5 22.0 15.9 19.1 30.9 17.9 26.5 50.0 38.0 24.5 15.1 19.7 Argentina 2014