Supreme Allied Commander, Transformation Norfolk, Virginia 23551-2490 United States of America ENCLOSURE 1 TO 3000 SC-6/Ser: NU0369 DATED 13 Jun 2007 FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT (FSE) First Edition FSE 2025 The Future Security Environment (FSE) is produced by the Intelligence Sub-Division, Headquarters, Supreme Allied Command Transformation (HQ SACT). If you would like to get in touch with the FSE team, contact: NATO HQ SACT, Norfolk, Virginia 23551-2490, United States of America. Tel +1 757 747 3537, fax +1 757 747 3914 E-mail mailto:[email protected] Alternatively you can visit the ACT website at: http://www.act.nato.int/ First Edition - Published March 2007. 2 1st Edition FSE 2025 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 6 ALLIANCE – FROM COLD WAR TO COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH .......... 6 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................ 9 AIM ........................................................................................................................ 9 SCOPE .................................................................................................................. 9 SOURCES .......................................................................................................... 10 METHOD ............................................................................................................. 10 FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – MAIN DRIVERS AND TRENDS ............................................ 10 Hypothesis ....................................................................................................................... 11 Concepts and definitions ................................................................................................. 11 STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................... 12 USE ..................................................................................................................... 12 SECTION I: STRATEGIC OVERVIEW – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................... 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -– ASSESSMENTS AND OVERALL CONCERNS 14 TERRORISM AND PROLIFERATION ........................................................................................... 14 COMPUTER NETWORK OPERATIONS (CNO) AND INFORMATION OPERATIONS (INFO OPS) ....... 14 PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................................................... 14 CRIMINAL ISSUES ................................................................................................................. 15 CHINA, INDIA AND RUSSIA ..................................................................................................... 15 OTHER NATIONS ................................................................................................................... 15 ECONOMICS ......................................................................................................................... 16 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY .................................................................................................. 16 SECTION II: GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES .................................................... 18 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 18 RISING POWERS .............................................................................................. 20 CHINA .................................................................................................................................. 21 INDIA ................................................................................................................................... 25 RUSSIA ................................................................................................................................ 28 COUNTRIES OF CONCERN ............................................................................. 31 NORTH KOREA ..................................................................................................................... 31 IRAN .................................................................................................................................... 32 SYRIA .................................................................................................................................. 32 IRAQ .................................................................................................................................... 34 COUNTRIES OF CONCERN AND WMD PROLIFERATION ............................................................. 34 GLOBALISATION AND INCREASING INTERDEPENDENCE ....................... 35 GLOBALISATION .................................................................................................................... 35 SECTION III: GLOBAL SECURITY RISKS .......................................................... 38 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 38 RELIGION ........................................................................................................... 39 THE RETURN OF RELIGION - RADICALISM ................................................. 40 RADICALISM ......................................................................................................................... 40 POLITICAL ISLAM .................................................................................................................. 41 GLOBAL SALAFI .................................................................................................................... 42 TERRORISM ...................................................................................................... 42 PROLIFERATION ............................................................................................... 43 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD)............................................................................ 44 WEAPONS OF MASS EFFECT (WME) ..................................................................................... 44 FUTURE NUCLEAR ENVIRONMENT .............................................................. 44 DELIVERY SYSTEMS .............................................................................................................. 45 SMALL ARMS ........................................................................................................................ 45 3 1st Edition FSE 2025 CRIMINAL ISSUES OF CONCERN .................................................................. 45 CRIMINAL ORGANISATIONS AND NETWORKS ............................................................................ 45 ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND HUMAN TRAFFICKING ..................................................................... 46 COMPUTER NETWORK OPERATIONS (CNO) AND INFORMATION OPERATIONS (INFO OPS) ............................................................................... 47 RELIANCE ON COMPUTER NETWORKS AND COMPUTER NETWORK OPERATIONS (CNO) ............ 48 INFORMATION OPERATIONS (INFO OPS) ............................................................................... 49 NATION STATE FAILURE ................................................................................. 50 INCREASED NUMBERS OF STATES AND FACTIONS .................................................................... 50 DECLINING STATES - WEAK, FAILING AND ROGUE NATIONS ....................................................... 50 SPILLOVER ........................................................................................................................... 51 ARC OF CRISIS AND TERRORIST BLACK HOLES ...................................... 52 SECTION IV: GLOBAL SECURITY CONCERNS................................................ 55 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 55 ENVIRONMENTAL AND PHYSICAL TRENDS ................................................ 56 CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................................................. 56 Pollution ........................................................................................................................... 58 Flooding ........................................................................................................................... 58 Damaged Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry ................................................................. 59 REGIONAL FOOD SHORTAGES ............................................................................................... 59 WATER ISSUES ..................................................................................................................... 60 HEALTH AND ALTERED DISEASES .......................................................................................... 61 ENERGY TRENDS .................................................................................................................. 63 SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ........................................................ 64 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ....................................................................................................... 64 REGIONAL POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT ............................................................................. 65 REGIONAL ILL-EDUCATION ...................................................................................................