VOLUME TEN NUMBER ONE SUMMER 1992 (C*C)Ui\W£EfZ5IT-/ OF hSmu(?>b) (bi)Coyityc of rtfphscL Socha^ *6 aey\ay) THE BAROMETER OF SOCIAL TRENDS M E M B E R S AECI Ltd • Africa Institute of SA • African Cables • African Oxygen Ltd • Allied Technologies Ltd • Amalgamated Beverage Industries • Anglo American & De Beers Chairman's Fund Education Trust • Anglovaal Ltd • Barlow Rand Foundation • BP Southern Africa • Chamber of Mines of S A • Colgate-Palmolive (Pty) Ltd • Data Research Africa • Development Bank of Southern Africa • Durban Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce • EMSA • ESKOM • First National Bank of Southern Africa Ltd • General Mining, Metals & Minerals • Gilbeys Distillers & Vintners (Pty) Ltd • Gold Fields Foundation • Johannesburg Consolidated Investment Co Ltd • Johnson & Johnson • Johnson Wax • Konrad Adenauer Foundation • vaZulu Finance & Investment Coip • Liberty Life • Malbak Ltd • Mercedes Benz of South Africa (Pty) Ltd • Nampak • Nedcor Netherlands Embassy • Old Mutual • Perm Centenary Trust • lass Holdings (Pty) Ltd • Premier Group • Pretoria Portland Cement Co • Rand Merchant Bank • Richards Bay Minerals ) Tinto Management Services SA • South Africa Foundation • Sanlam • SA Sugar- Association • SEIFSA • South African Breweries Ltd • hern Life • Standard Bank Investments Coip Ltd • Starcke Associates • Stellenbosch Farmers Winery Ltd • Suncrush Limited Swiss Development Agency • TEK Corporation • Tiger Oats Ltd • ie Southern Africa • The Tongaat-Hulett Group Ltd • Unitrans Limited • The Urban Foundation • Unilever SA • UNISA • Vaal Reef Exploration & Mining Co Ltd • Wooltru Ltd INDICATOR • ^ " AFRICA INDICATOR MM AFRICA QUARTERLY REPORT VOI.IO NO I SUMMER 9 2 POLITICAL MONITOR World's Apart: North and South in One State Heribert Adam 5 Behind the Mask: South Africa's Third Force' Paul us Zulu 8 Natal's Security Crisis Anthony Minaar 15 ECONOMIC MONITOR Economic Outlook Mike McGrath and Merle Holden 22 The High Road to Trade Reform Merle Holden 25 RURAL & REGIONAL MONITOR Prophets for the Poor: African Independent Churches Evans, Bekker, Cross & Oosthuizen 33 Community Development: The Mbonambi Model Jabu Kubheka 38 The Devil's Dominion: Satanism and Social Stress Gavin Ivey 41 URBAN MONITOR Civil Society at Crossroads Naomi Chazan 47 Minding Your Own Business: Deregulation in the Informal Sector Julian May & Mark Schacter 53 INDUSTRIAL MONITOR The Golden Triangle: The National Economic Forum Nicoli Nattrass 61 At Special Risk: Aids in Southern Africa Alan Whiteside 66 Our last edition of the year - a shorter issue for easy Security reform is a controversial subject. The "facts", digestion over the Christmas period. Our readers will the "evidence" and the "allegations" all become areas of probably be relieved by academic brevity after receiving subjective weighting and inteipretation, especially the bumper fiftieth edition of Indicator SA recently! We where secrecy shrouds the activities of a wide spectrum wish you well over the festive season, and hope for a of security and para-military groups. We would more peaceful and prosperous new year. welcome responses from our readers who might have different perspectives. There should be ongoing public Will the wise men on our cover deliver a godsend of debate in the interests of achieving a return by all peace to South Africa? Only time will tell whether they factions to barracks to enable the politicians to negotiate are far-sighted enough to compromise in the birth of a a peaceful settlement. new society in 1993 and beyond. Tragically, the politicians remain deeply divided, violence gathers The recent arrival of three international observer momentum again, and peace seems as elusive as ever missions highlights worldwide concern over the rising after three years of negotiations. This is especialy so in level of political conflict in South Africa. Their presence the conflict-wracked Natal region. alongside a host of domestic monitoring agencies might prevail upon the main political actors to observe the Our cover article is an extract from a forthcoming book code of political conduct of the National Peace Accord. on South Africa's dilemmas, aptly entitled, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind. It is the latest perspective from In our industrial monitor, Nicoli Nattrass reports on the the pen of the renowned Canadian sociologist, Heribert launch of a national economic forum incorporating Adam. He identifies the major faultlines in our society - representatives of business, labour and government. the struggle over material resources between insiders Amidst the on-off process of political negotiations, the and outsiders, the exclusive regrouping of political coming together of key economic players is surely a constituencies and the politicisation of ethnic identities. step in the right direction. She warns, however, that He wonders whether South Africa is trapped in a though the participants agree on the need for a forum transition without end. they have very different objectives in the kinds of economic restructuring they intend to negotiate. In our political monitor, two regular contributors revisit the renewed controversy over the role of the security Our other contributors monitor new trends in South forces in transitional politics. Paulus Zulu and Tony Africa's economic, regional and urban arenas. They Minnaar weigh up the evidence from the endless stream emphasise inter alia ways of achieving economic of judicial inquiries, court trials, affidavits, confessions growth through trade reform, liberalisation, and revelations which have come to the fore. Impartial deregulation, entrepreneurial development and self-help law enforcement and prosecution of the culprits of strategies for the poor. Expansion, access and political violence are essential to reduce conflict levels, redistribution of economic resources can help to especially in the Natal region. They make several depoliticise conflict over material assets, thereby practical proposals to realise these objectives. providing the building blocks for political development. Graham Howe, Editor November 1992 he INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA Quarterly Report and the INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA Issue TFocus series are published by the Centre for Social and Development Studies, based at the University of Natal, Durban. Opinions expressed in these publications are not necessarily those of the Editorial Committee and should not be taken to represent the policies of companies or organisations which are donor members of the Indicator Project South Africa. © Copyright for all material herein is held by INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA or individual authors, except in the case of short extracts for review or comment, which must be fully credited. © Sole copyright for all data bases rests with INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA. Permission to republish or reproduce any part of this publication must be obtained from the publisher. Editor Graham Howe Production/Design Rob Evans Secretary/Marketing Pat Fismer Marketing Assistant Charlene Net EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Simmi H< /',A( r. My ma Berkowitz, Rob Evans, Graham Howe, Mike McGrath, Valerie Miller and Lawrence Schlemmer f OVl-.R 11.1 A1.S) K'VIIUN Jeff Rankin, Clear Pictures PRINTING The Natal Witness U-.l'Uoin CTION WS Repro and MultiGraphics ISSN (l?5'!-188x Fatalities in Political Conflict Transvaal and Natal 1991-1992 DEATHS 200 - ! NATAL '' TRANSVAAL TRANSVAAL NATAL Source: Data from Human Rights Commission. See articles by Zulu (pp8-14) and Minaar (pp15-20) in this monitor. The Team at INDICATOR SOUTH AfRICA wishes you Season's <greetings STARCKE ASSOCIATES The econo-political resource. PO Box 87094 Houshton 2041 Johannesburg South Africa Telephone (011) 646-9370 by the Development Bank of Southern Africa. The main aim WOOLTRU of the journal is to promote research and discussion on development issues relating to Southern Africa. Contributions include articles on all fields related to development, with the emphasis on the reporting of original research, as well as viewpoints, conference and book reviews, and research notes. committed to Subscription rates: - For subscribers in Southern Africa R30 per annum (including postage) the Future of South Africa. - For subscribers outside Southern Africa US $30 per annum (including surface postage) To subscribe, please send your payment to: Co-ordinating Editor Development Southern Africa PO Box 1234 Halfway House, 1685 wooLwonws mjwo^topics South Africa Tel: (011) 313-3911 Professor HeribertAdam, Department of Sociology Simon Fraser University, British Columbia In this extract the renowned sociologist, HeribertAdam, provides a preview of his forthcoming new book, entitled "The Opening of the Apartheid Mind" (co-written with Kogila Moodley). He revisits the predicaments facing a post-apartheid South Africa: its politicised ethnicity, the violent conflict between insiders and outsiders, its minority interests and regional ethno-nationalisms. The challenge of finding new forms of cooperative development and legitimacy should be closely observed by a world which is itself deeply divided by similar political conflicts over socio-economic resources. states in the Middle East and Asia, South Africa) are linked by kinship ties and ideological affinities with the first bloc. A third category of politically volatile countries without resources and claims on or hopes for Western assistance can be t is now conventional wisdom that after discerned: sub-Saharan Africa, the Southern Ithe end of the Cold War, Africa as a Balkans, the Caucasus and most of South continent has become