Whangarei District Climate Change Constraints Report Prepared by: David Coleman 18th December 2009 TRIM: 10/2550 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 8 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................. 10 1.2 PRINCIPLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................ 12 1.3 POLICY RESPONSES ................................................................................................................. 15 2 CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS – INTERNATIONAL ................................................... 16 2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 16 2.2 OBSERVED AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES – NATIONAL ................................................... 20 2.3 CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR NORTHLAND ................................................................... 28 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – SECTORAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 35 3.1 PRIMARY PRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 35 International Context ................................................................................................................ 35 National Context ...................................................................................................................... 39 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 42 3.2 INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................... 43 National Context ...................................................................................................................... 43 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 45 Stormwater .................................................................................................................................... 48 Wastewater ................................................................................................................................... 48 Transport ...................................................................................................................................... 49 Water ............................................................................................................................................ 50 Solid Waste ................................................................................................................................... 51 Parks ............................................................................................................................................ 52 3.3 FURTHER COUNCIL ISSUES ...................................................................................................... 53 Primary Impacts ............................................................................................................................ 53 Secondary Impacts ........................................................................................................................ 55 Tertiary Impacts ............................................................................................................................ 56 3.4 BIODIVERSITY ......................................................................................................................... 57 International Context ................................................................................................................ 57 National Context ...................................................................................................................... 61 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 63 3.5 HEALTH .................................................................................................................................. 65 International Context ................................................................................................................ 65 National Context ...................................................................................................................... 66 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 66 3.6 VULNERABILITY .......................................................................................................................... 67 International & National Context .............................................................................................. 67 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 68 3.7 CASE STUDY AREA - WAIPU ......................................................................................................... 78 3.8 CASE STUDY AREA – CBD ........................................................................................................... 81 3.9 CASE STUDY AREAS – NORTHERN COASTS ELEVATION ABOVE MEAN HIGH WATER SPRING ........... 83 4 CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES ............................................................................................ 88 4.1 EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME .................................................................................................. 88 Local Context........................................................................................................................... 93 4.2 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACT 2002 .............................................................................................. 96 4.3 RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ACT 1991 ....................................................................................... 96 4.4 NORTHLAND REGIONAL COUNCIL (NRC) ................................................................................. 98 4.5 WHANGAREI DISTRICT COUNCIL ............................................................................................. 99 4.6 IWI MANAGEMENT PLANS ....................................................................................................... 99 5.0 COMPARISON OF THE THREE FUTURES ....................................................................... 100 5.1 FUTURE ONE: LIGHTLY REGULATED, MARKET LED DEVELOPMENT (BUSINESS AS USUAL) ...... 103 6.2 FUTURE TWO: TWIN CITY/URBAN AND COASTAL SPREAD ...................................................... 106 5.3 FUTURE THREE: SATELLITE TOWN/RURAL AND COASTAL VILLAGES ....................................... 108 6 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................... 111 7 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................................... 112 APPENDIX 1: MAIN FEATURES OF NEW ZEALAND CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR 2040 AND 2090. SOURCED FROM MFE 2008, P14 ............................................................... 117 List of Figures Figure 1: Effect of Climate Change on Average and extreme temperatures. Sourced from MFE 2008 (sourced from figure 4.1-IPCC Synthesis Report, IPCC 2001b). Illustrative only. ............ 13 Figure 2: Conceptual Representation of the Drivers of Change in Coastal Margins and the Implications for Coastal Hazard Risk and Vulnerability of Coastal Communities: when no adaptation occurs, and when adaptation is implemented in the near term and mid term. Sourced from MFE (2008:42). ......................................................................................... 16 Figure 3: IPCC Multi-model Temperature Projections for Selected Scenarios. The grey bars show the range in global warming for the scenarios. Sourced from MFE 2008 (from IPCC 2007a). ... 17 Figure 4: Projected Temperature Distribution across Globe According to Scenario. Sourced from IPCC 2007. ................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 5: Projected Global Precipitation Changes for 2030 and 2080, sourced from IPCC 2007.18 Figure 6: Major Global Climate Change ‗Tipping Points‘. Sourced from Richardson et al 2009. 19 Figure 7: New Zealand average temperature illustrating year to year variability of the national - average temperature. Sourced from MFE 2008. ................................................................. 21 Figure 8: Projected mid-range changes in annual mean temperature (in °C) relative to 1990 across New Zealand. Sourced from MFE 2008. .................................................................. 22 Figure 9: Projected Annual Mean Precipitation Changes Across New Zealand for Two Time Periods. Sourced from MFE 2008, p7. .............................................................................. 23 Figure 10: Map Illustrating Projected Precipitation Changes by Season Across New Zealand. Sourced from MFE 2008 ................................................................................................