CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism Paul K. Davis, Eric V. Larson, Zachary Haldeman, Mustafa Oguz, Yashodhara Rana Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H- 06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Understanding and influencing public support for insurgency and terrorism / Paul K. Davis ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5869-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Public opinion—Case studies. 2. Insurgency—Public opinion—Case studies. 3. Qaida (Organization)—Public opinion. 4. Taliban—Public opinion. 5. Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan—Public opinion. 6. Nepal—History—Civil War, 1996- 2006—Public opinion. I. Davis, Paul K., 1943- HV6431.U3466 2012 363.325—dc23 2012028228 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo: Protesters shout slogans as they march on a street in the southern Yemeni town of Radfan on December 19, 2009, to denounce a government military operation that the authorities said killed about 30 al-Qa’ida militants. (Reuters) © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph contributes to a series of RAND studies relating social-science concepts to insurgency and terrorism. The project was requested by the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organiza- tion (JIEDDO) as one component of follow-on research building on an earlier RAND study, Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin, eds., Social Science for Counterter- rorism: Putting the Pieces Together, 2009.1 The monograph focuses on public support for insurgency and terrorism and how it can be influenced. It is organized around the testing and refinement of conceptual models that seek to integrate much of what is known from relevant social science about public support. The primary intended audiences are officials and staffs concerned with strategy, policy, strategic communications, and analysis relating to international terrorism and irregular warfare, but the monograph should also be of interest to the wider scholarly community concerned with insurgency and terrorism. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to the project leaders: Paul K. Davis ([email protected]) and Eric Larson ([email protected]). 1 Other follow-on studies were completed in 2010 by colleagues Todd Helmus, Brian Jackson, and Kim Cragin, which deal, respectively, with empirical information on individual reasons for participating in terrorism, terrorist decisionmaking, and unintended side effects of influence efforts. iii iv Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism This research was sponsored by JIEDDO and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND ISDP Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the direc- tor (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary ......................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments .......................................................... xxxvii ChapteR One Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................... 1 Objectives and Approach .......................................................... 2 Seeing the Work in a System Context ........................................... 3 Concepts of Validation and Improvement ...................................... 5 Challenges ........................................................................ 5 Approach .......................................................................... 6 Structure of the Monograph ...................................................... 9 ChapteR TwO A Conceptual Model ............................................................ 11 The Concept of Factor Trees ..................................................... 11 Initial Factor Trees for the Study ................................................ 12 Enhancements Drawn from Social Movement Theory ...................... 16 Major Elements of Social Movement Theory ................................ 16 Using the Elements as a Diagnostic Lens ................................... 22 The Final Conceptual Model of Our Study .................................. 23 Anticipating Conclusions ..................................................... 23 The Narrative .................................................................... 25 v vi Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism The Relative Importance of Factors .......................................... 28 Future Research: Modeling the Extent of Influence ........................ 29 Appendix to Chapter Two ...................................................... 30 ChapteR ThRee The Case of al-Qa’ida ........................................................... 35 Introduction ....................................................................... 35 Purpose and Background ...................................................... 35 Methodology .................................................................... 35 A Factor Tree for Public Support of al-Qa’ida ................................ 36 Attractions ....................................................................... 37 Perceived Legitimacy of Violence ............................................. 39 Acceptability of Costs and Risks .............................................. 39 Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory ............................................. 40 Al-Qa’ida’s Vulnerabilities ...................................................... 66 Conclusions ....................................................................... 68 ChapteR