GFMS PLATINUM & PALLADIUM SURVEY 2015 2015 SURVEY & PALLADIUM GFMS PLATINUM www.valcambi.com www.tanaka.co.jp THOMSON REUTERS GFMSGFMS PLATINUMPLATINUM && PPALLADIUMALLADIUM SURVEYSURVEY 2015 cover sponsors ©2014 Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and the Kinesis logo are trademarks of Thomson Reutes. THE GFMS TEAM AT THOMSON REUTERS GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGES THE GENEROUS SUPPORT FROM THE FOLLOWING COMPANIES FOR THIS YEAR’S GFMS PLATINUM & PALLADIUM SURVEY TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS As a leading precious metals company, the TANAKA Group will develop innovative technology, respond rapidly to customers’ expectations and earn their trust, while striving to contribute to the creation of a prosperous society and a beautiful planet supported by the benefits of precious metals. Tanaka bars are listed as Good Delivery brand by LBMA and LPPM. Valcambi is a leader in precious metals refining and operates one of the world’s largest and most efficient integrated precious metals plants situated on a 33 hectare site, at Balerna, Switzerland. We are one of the world’s largest manufacturers of minted ingots. Reacting to the demands of investors in different markets around the globe we are continuously carefully developing within the size range from 0.5 g to 1000 g, gold, silver, platinum and palladium minted bars in different forms and new designs. For our clients, according to their wishes we customize individually obverse and reverse of the bars, certificates and tailored packaging solutions. All products produced in our foundry and minting facilities are certified by our laboratory, carefully inspected by our operators, individually packed and controlled before shipment. The Hallmark is not only a guarantee for quality of Swiss workmanship, it guarantees also the fineness of the most sought after bars in the world, desired by precious metals connoisseurs and investors alike. A Valcambi manufactured bar is not only sold at an outstanding price but is synonymous with unique craftsmanship, guaranteed fineness, transparency and reliability. Heraeus Metal Management Heraeus is one of the world’s leading providers of customized precious metal solutions. The Global Business Unit Heraeus Metal Management (HMM) brings together Heraeus’ many years of expertise in the fields of Precious Metal Recycling, Trading and Services. The product and service offering includes not only the physical supply of precious metals but also services in the areas of Risk Management and recycling. In conjunction with other Global Business Units of Heraeus, HMM offers its customers comprehensive and integrated solutions in all the precious metals. The cover of GFMS Platinum & Palladium Survey 2015 features the wide range of Tanaka and Valcambi minted and cast bars. Monuments and buildings referring to the most important physical trading places of Platinum and Palladium. Cover designed by Valcambi and executed by BtoB Creativity, Coldrerio, Switzerland. GFMS PLATINUM & PALLADIUM SURVEY 2015 BY: Rhona O’Connell, Head of Metals Research & Forecasts William Tankard, Manager, Mining Cameron Alexander, Manager, Regional Demand Andrew Leyland, Manager, Regional Demand Ross Strachan, Manager, Regional Demand Matthew Piggott, Lead Analyst Saida Litosh, Senior Analyst Sudheesh Nambiath, Senior Analyst Janette Tourney, Senior Analyst Johann Wiebe, Senior Analyst Ling Wong, Senior Analyst Erica Rannestad, Senior Analyst Samson Li, Senior Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray, Analyst Dante Aranda, Analyst Gregory Rodwell, Analyst John Bedi, Analyst Beverley Salmon, Customer Relationship Manager Milo Troman-Taylor, Design and Layout PUBLISHED MAY 2015 BY THOMSON REUTERS The Thomson Reuters Building, 30 South Colonnade London, E14 5EP, UK E-mail: [email protected] Web: https://thomsonreuterseikon.com/markets/metal-trading/ TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Summary and Price Outlook 5 • Introduction 5 • Platinum in 2014 6 • Palladium in 2014 7 • Outlook for 2015 8 2. Platinum & Palladium Prices 9 • Introduction 9 • Platinum 9 • Palladium 10 • Price Outlook 12 3. Investment 16 • Overview 16 • Commodity Exchanges 19 • Retail Investment 21 4. Supply 22 • Mine Production 22 • Producer Hedging 28 • Production Costs 28 • Scrap Supply 32 • Above-Ground Bullion Stocks 36 5. Demand 41 • Autocatalyst Demand 42 • Jewellery 49 • Dental 58 • Electronics 59 • Glass 61 • Chemical 62 • Petroleum 63 6. Appendices 67 • Appendix 1 - Platinum Supply and Demand (ounces) • Appendix 2 - Palladium Supply and Demand (ounces) • Appendix 3 - Platinum Supply and Demand (tonnes) • Appendix 4 - Palladium Supply and Demand (tonnes) • Appendix 5 - Nominal Platinum & Palladium Prices • Appendix 6 - Real Platinum & Palladium Prices • Appendix 7 - Platinum and Palladium Prices in 2014 FOCUS BOXES • Price Developments for the Minor PGMs 11 • Platinum and Palladium Price Correlations 15 • Platinum and Palladium Exchange Traded Funds 18 • Restructuring in the PGM Mining Sector 24 • 2014 Industrial Action in South Africa: Long Term Implications? 25 • A Bright Spark for Platinum? 65 © THOMSON REUTERS 2015. All content provided in this publication is owned by Thomson Reuters and/or its affiliates (the “Thomson Reuters Content”) and TABLE OF CONTENTS protected by United States and international copyright laws. Thomson Reuters retains all proprietary rights to the Thomson Reuters Content. The Thomson Reuters Content may not be reproduced, copied, manipulated, transmitted, distributed or otherwise exploited for any commercial purpose without the express written consent of Thomson Reuters. All rights are expressly reserved. TRADEMARKS “Thomson Reuters” and the Thomson Reuters logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies. The third party trademarks, service marks, trade names and logos featured in this publication are owned by the relevant third parties or their affiliates. No use of such mark, names or logos is permitted without the express written consent of the owner. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND NO RELIANCE This publication is provided by Thomson Reuters on an “as is” and “as available” basis. Thomson Reuters makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the Thomson Reuters Content. Thomson Reuters is an aggregator and provider of information for general information purposes only and does not provide financial or other professional advice. Thomson Reuters is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from any decisions made in reliance on the Thomson Reuters Content, including decisions relating to the sale and purchase of instruments, or risk management decisions. ISSN: 2055-1517 (Print) ISSN: 2055-1525 (Online) THOMSON REUTERS SURVEYS: • GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015 9th April 2015 • GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 14th April 2015 • GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q1 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK 28th April 2015 • WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2015 6th May 2015 • GFMS PLATINUM & PALLADIUM SURVEY 2015 14th May 2015 • GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q2 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK July 2015 • GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 - UPDATE October 2015 • GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q3 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK October 2015 • GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q4 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK January 2016 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The estimates shown in GFMS Platinum & Palladium Survey for the main components of mine production, scrap, fabrication, investment and stock movements are calculated on the basis of a detailed supply/demand analysis for each of the markets listed in the main tables. In the vast majority of cases, the information used in these analyses has been derived from visits to the countries concerned and discussions with local traders, producers, refiners, fabricators and central bankers. Although we also make use of public domain data where this is relevant, it is the information provided by our contacts that ultimately makes GFMS Platinum & Palladium Survey unique. We are grateful to all of them. NOTES UNITS USED: troy ounce (oz) = 31.1035 grammes tonne = 1 metric tonne, 32,151 troy ounces • Unless otherwise stated, all statistics on supply and demand are expressed in terms of fine metal content. • All references in this publication to “ounces” refer to troy ounces. • Unless otherwise stated, US dollar prices and their equivalents are for the p.m. fixes of the London Platinum and Palladium Fixing Company Limited for prices prior to 1st December 2014 and the p.m. LBMA Platinum Price and LBMA Palladium Price from 1st December onwards. • Throughout the tables, totals may not add due to independent rounding. TERMINOLOGY: ”-” Not available or not applicable. ”0.0” Zero or less than 0.05. ”dollar”, “$” US dollar unless otherwise stated. ”4E” Four elements: platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold (3PGE+Au). ”6E” Six elements: 4E plus iridium and ruthenium (5PGE+Au). Estimates of supply include mine production and the recycling both of scrapped autocatalysts and old jewellery, but exclude contributions from above-ground stocks, such as supplies from stocks controlled by state institutions in Russia. Demand estimates are net of recycling with the exception of autocatalyst and jewellery, where gross demand is shown - i.e. the total amount of metal absorbed to these two sectors. Estimates of recycling from scrapped autocatalysts and jewellery are shown separately as part of supply given their scale and potential for change. Estimates of demand exclude the movements of any above-ground stocks held within the specified industries, for example any changes in stocks held by the automotive industry. By simple arithmetic, this leaves either a “Physical Surplus or Deficit” (in