Appendix C: Air Quality and Greenhouse Study City of Ontario Grand Park Specific Plan EIR Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Assessment Report Grand Park Specific Plan Ontario, California Prepared for: City of Ontario 303 East “B” Street Ontario, CA 91764 Contact: Richard Ayala, Senior Planner Prepared by: Michael Brandman Associates 220 Commerce, Suite 202 Irvine, CA 92602 714.508.4100 Contact: Authors: Vince Mirabella, Dispersion Modeling and Health Risk Specialist David Joe, Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Specialist May 27, 2013 City of Ontario - Grand Park Specific Plan Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Assessment Report Table of Contents Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................. vi Section 1: Executive Summary............................................................................................ 1 1.1 - Purpose and Methods of Analysis....................................................................... 1 1.2 - Summary of Analysis Results ............................................................................. 1 1.3 - Mitigation Measures Applied to the Project......................................................... 2 1.4 - Project Location .................................................................................................. 5 1.5 - Project Setting..................................................................................................... 5 1.6 - Project Characteristics ........................................................................................ 6 1.7 - Standard Conditions.......................................................................................... 13 1.7.1 - South Coast Air Quality Management District Rules.......................... 13 1.7.2 - Other .................................................................................................. 15 Section 2: Local and Regional Environmental Setting.................................................... 19 2.1 - Existing Physical Setting................................................................................... 19 2.1.1 - Local Climate...................................................................................... 19 2.1.2 - Local Air Quality ................................................................................. 23 2.1.3 - Air Quality Improvement in the South Coast Air Basin....................... 25 2.1.4 - Attainment Status ............................................................................... 25 2.1.5 - Toxic Air Contaminants ...................................................................... 31 2.2 - Regulatory Setting............................................................................................. 32 2.2.1 - National and State.............................................................................. 32 2.2.2 - South Coast Air Quality Management District .................................... 41 Section 3: Climate Change Setting.................................................................................... 47 3.1 - Climate Change ................................................................................................ 47 3.1.1 - Alternate Views Regarding Climate Change ...................................... 47 3.1.2 - Consequences of Climate Change..................................................... 52 3.2 - Greenhouse Gases........................................................................................... 53 3.2.1 - Common Greenhouse Gases............................................................. 53 3.3 - Emissions Inventories ....................................................................................... 56 3.4 - Regulatory Environment.................................................................................... 58 3.4.1 - International........................................................................................ 58 3.4.2 - National .............................................................................................. 59 3.4.3 - California ............................................................................................ 62 3.4.4 - Regional ............................................................................................. 68 Section 4: Air Quality impacts ........................................................................................... 71 4.1 - Thresholds of Significance................................................................................ 71 4.1.1 - CEQA Significance Thresholds .......................................................... 71 4.1.2 - South Coast Air Quality Management District Significance Thresholds ......................................................................................... 71 4.1.3 - California Air Resources Board Land Use Recommendations........... 74 4.2 - Methodology...................................................................................................... 75 4.2.1 - Construction ....................................................................................... 75 4.2.2 - Operations.......................................................................................... 77 4.2.3 - Other Emissions Sources................................................................... 78 4.3 - Air Quality Impact Analysis ............................................................................... 79 4.3.1 - Impact Analysis .................................................................................. 79 Section 5: Greenhouse Gas Impact Analysis................................................................... 97 5.1 - CEQA Guidelines.............................................................................................. 97 Michael Brandman Associates iii H:\Client (PN-JN)\0116\01160027\AQ GHG\01160027 Grand Park AQ and GHG 05-27-2013.doc City of Ontario - Grand Park Specific Plan Table of Contents Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Assessment Report 5.2 - Impact Analysis................................................................................................. 97 Section 6: References ...................................................................................................... 111 Appendix A: CalEEMod Output and Regional Emissions Spreadsheets Appendix B: Caline4 Output List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Proposed Specific Plan Land Uses ...................................................... 6 Table 2: Air Quality Monitoring Summary ............................................................................. 24 Table 3: South Coast Air Basin Attainment Status ............................................................... 26 Table 4: Description of Air Pollutants.................................................................................... 34 Table 5: City of Ontario TOP Air Quality Resources Element.............................................. 45 Table 6: Description of Greenhouse Gases.......................................................................... 54 Table 7: City of Ontario Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory ........................................... 58 Table 8: City of Ontario TOP Air Quality Resources Element............................................... 69 Table 9: SCAQMD Regional Significance Thresholds.......................................................... 72 Table 10: SCAQMD Localized Significance Thresholds....................................................... 72 Table 11: CARB Recommendations for Siting New Sensitive Receptors............................. 74 Table 12: Conceptual Project Development Schedule ......................................................... 76 Table 13: Trip Generation Rates........................................................................................... 78 Table 14: Localized Construction Emissions ....................................................................... 82 Table 15: Carbon Monoxide Local Hot Spot Assessment (Horizon Year + Project)............. 84 Table 16: Construction Regional Air Pollutant Emissions..................................................... 85 Table 17: Operational Regional Air Pollutant Emissions (Horizon Year 2030) ..................... 87 Table 18: Project Compliance with CARB Recommendations for Siting New Sensitive Receptors ............................................................................................ 91 Table 19: Project Compliance with State Codes................................................................... 93 Table 20: Construction Greenhouse Gas Emissions .......................................................... 102 Table 21: Project Operational Greenhouse Gases at Horizon Year 2030 .......................... 103 Table 22: Project Operational Greenhouse Gases at Horizon Year 2030 .......................... 104 Table 23: Select Regional Transportation Plan Strategies ................................................. 106 Table 24: Inapplicable Scoping Plan Reduction Measures................................................. 108 iv Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\0116\01160027\AQ GHG\01160027 Grand Park AQ and GHG 05-27-2013.doc City of Ontario - Grand Park Specific Plan Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Assessment Report Table of Contents List of Figures Figure 1: Daily Temperature Averages and Extremes - Pomona Fairplex............................ 20 Figure 2: Monthly Average Total Precipitation - Pomona Fairplex........................................ 23 Figure 3: Historical