Shelter evacuation in relation to demand characteristics in Dominica Alina Korman July, 2015 Shelter evacuation in relation to demand characteristics in Dominica Written by Alina Korman Thesis submitted to Utrecht University, Delft University of Technology, Wageningen University and the International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation in a partial fulfillment of the degree of Master of Science in Geographical Information Management and Applications (GIMA). Date: Autor’s name: Alina Korman Student number: s6009972 E-mail: [email protected] First supervisor: ir. P.W.M. (Ellen-Wien) Augustijn Second supervisor: dr.ir. W. (Wietske) Bijker Professor: Prof. Dr. M. J. (Menno-Jan) Kraak SHELTER EVACUATION IN RELATION TO DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS IN DOMINICA Abstract Reducing disaster vulnerability is one of the main objectives of government actions in countries prone to natural hazards like hurricanes. Evacuation policy planners in such areas need precise and up to date information about population location, roads, rivers etc. Moreover, they aim to employ the most efficient methods to identify vulnerable areas and suggest possible intervention solutions. This research proposes a hybrid approach using object-based image analysis, self-organising maps and network analysis to determine shelter evacuation areas. First, a method of extracting building data from multi spectral and panchromatic images is presented. Data extraction process is performed using an object image based analysis and ends up with assigning to each building attributes that are necessary for determining hurricane vulnerability. Second, obtained features are classified using self-organizing maps to identify the most vulnerable groups. Finally, extracted and classified buildings are used in network shelter analysis. The whole method is highly extendable and modifiable so it can serve not only for evacuation modelling in the study case of Dominica, but also for other areas at risk. Key words: Buildings extraction; object-oriented classification; data mining; SOM clustering; network analysis; evacuation planning; hurricane risk. i SHELTER EVACUATION IN RELATION TO DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS IN DOMINICA ii SHELTER EVACUATION IN RELATION TO DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS IN DOMINICA Acknowledgments In this place I would like to thank all the people who made writing this thesis possible. Obtaining Master’s degree has been a long and demanding journey. Until three years ago I would have never dreamt about studying abroad. Now, when everything is finished, I am deeply grateful that God gave me the opportunity to study in The Netherlands, write this thesis and work with such fantastic people. First I want to give my sincere thanks to Mrs Ellen-Wien Augustijn for supporting me all the time, from the very beginning, when I told her that I would have to study fully on distance, from Poland, through the long and hard time of work. We exchanged many e-mails and met almost always online, but until the end, she was encouraging me to finish writing and defend my thesis on time. Without her devotion to the subject and motivating Skype sessions it would not be possible to have such a happy-ending- master-thesis story. I would also like to thank Mrs Wietske Bijker for the whole support, especially helping me at the difficult beginning, when the thesis was just started, for the time that she spent explaining eCognition and guiding me through my first steps in working with satellite data. Special thanks to Mr Corne van Elzakker, the most devoted study director I have ever known, a great man, who was always open to solve problems, answer questions and help with any issues concerning GIMA. Although very busy every day, he was always available, understanding “international’s” problems and finding time to sit and talk with students during lunch of coffee breaks. What a gift to have such a Study Director! Here, I would also like to thank one very special classmate, Kas Kroese, my dear friend, with whom I spent many hours working in almost all group projects. Kas, thank you for all the work that we did together, you were the best project-buddy that I could ever get! Thank you for your patience and the best help I could get - I could always count on you. Big thanks also to all students from my year, very close for me internationals: Maarja, Stanislav and Emmanuel and all the Dutch students who helped me during these studies – for always trying to answer my questions about dealing with living in The Netherlands and helping me a lot with administration. Special thanks for Stanislav for printing this thesis for me in The Netherlands! Great thanks also to couchsurfers who hosted me in Enschede, Wageningen and Delft. I especially want to thank Jan Willem Alfenaar, who always had a place for me in Enschede, encouraged me to work hard and always believed that I would succeed. Big thanks to all administration staff, from Utrecht, Enschede, Wageningen and Delft, for making my studying abroad not so scary. At the end I would like to thank my mum and my best friends from The Hague: Mamo, dziękuję Ci za to, że zawsze we mnie wierzyłaś i dopingowałaś moje naukowe działania. Rozumiałaś moje zmęczenie, nerwy i starałaś się pomagać jak tylko mogłaś. Bez Twojego wsparcia napisanie tej pracy byłoby niemożliwe! Carin and John, you were like parents for me for all the time that I was living in The Netherlands. Your support and love was strengthening me every day when I was so far away from my country. With you I could not only celebrate my successes but also cope with all difficulties. I could not dream about meeting such great people in my life! iii SHELTER EVACUATION IN RELATION TO DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS IN DOMINICA Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ iv List of figures ...................................................................................................................... vi List of tables ........................................................................................................................ ix 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 Background................................................................................................................................................. 11 1.1.1 Hurricanes ........................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.2 Disaster vulnerability reduction projects ............................................................................................ 14 1.2 Motivation and problem statement ........................................................................................................... 15 1.2.1 Evacuation planning ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.2.2 Research objectives ............................................................................................................................ 16 1.3 Thesis structure .......................................................................................................................................... 18 2. Literature review ......................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Extracting information from satellite images – object-based image analysis ............................................ 19 2.1.1 Segmentation ...................................................................................................................................... 19 2.1.2 Classification ....................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.3 Obtaining a good quality input data – satellite images ...................................................................... 22 2.2 Hazard Mapping ......................................................................................................................................... 23 2.2.1 Risks associated with hurricanes - vulnerability factors ..................................................................... 23 2.2.2. Methods for hazard vulnerability mapping ....................................................................................... 27 2.3 Data mining using Self Organizing Maps and other clustering techniques ................................................ 28 2.3.1 Clustering techniques ......................................................................................................................... 28 2.3.2 SOM .................................................................................................................................................... 29 2.4 Shelters location planning using network analysis ..................................................................................... 30 2.4.1 Planning shelters locations as a part of disaster management .......................................................... 30 2.4.2 Evacuation modelling .........................................................................................................................