A COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH TO SUSTAINABILITY: CAN PEAK OIL FUEL THE SUB-SAHARAN AIDS EPIDEMIC? by CRAIG PHILIP ATZBERGER Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Advisor: Professor N. Sreenath Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERISTY January, 2007 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES We hereby approve the dissertation of ______________________________________________________ candidate for the Ph.D. degree *. (signed)_______________________________________________ (chair of the committee) ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ (date) _______________________ *We also certify that written approval has been obtained for any proprietary material contained therein. Copyright © 2006 by Craig Philip Atzberger All rights reserved ii Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF FIGURES VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XIII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XIV ABSTRACT XV CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 OVERVIEW 1 1.1.1 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 3 1.2 DISSERTATION CONTRIBUTIONS 4 1.2.1 USEFULNESS FOR POLICY MAKERS 6 1.3 DISSERTATION ORGANIZATION 6 CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND OF STUDY 8 2.1 INTRODUCTION 8 2.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 10 2.2 TRANSITION TO THE POST-PEAK OIL ERA 10 2.2.1 HOW MUCH OIL IS THERE? 12 2.2.2 WHEN WILL OIL PRODUCTION PEAK? 17 2.2.3 THE LINK BETWEEN OIL CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 30 2.3 THE GLOBAL HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC TODAY 37 2.3.1 THE PROBLEM IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 39 2.3.2 THE PROBLEM IN BOTSWANA 44 2.3.3 PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS 44 2.3.4 CURRENT STATE OF PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS 45 2.3.5 TREATMENT INTERVENTIONS 47 2.3.6 CURRENT STATE OF TREATMENT INTERVENTIONS 48 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 57 3.1 INTRODUCTION 57 3.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 58 3.2 ASPECTS OF THE CYBERNETIC PARADIGM FOR THE HUMAN DIMENSION 58 3.3 HUMAN AS A SUB-MODEL 64 iii 3.4 INTEGRATED VERSUS MULTI-LEVEL MODELING 67 3.5 MANAGEMENT OF COMPLEXITY VIA A MULTI-LEVEL HIERARCHICAL APPROACH 71 3.6 REASONING SUPPORT TOOL: GLOBESIGHT 81 CHAPTER 4: IMPACT OF PEAK OIL AND THE POST-PEAK OIL ERA 96 4.1 INTRODUCTION 96 4.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 97 4.2 THE WORLD OIL MODEL 98 4.3 WHEN WILL IT PEAK? SCENARIOS FOR PEAK OIL: 2010, 2015, 2025 104 4.4 THE SECOND LEVEL: REGIONAL OIL DEMAND WITH ECONOMIC FEEDBACK 111 4.5 ANTICIPATORY POLICY FOR PEAK SHIFT FROM 2015 TO 2025 115 4.6 REGIONALIZED OIL DEMAND PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR TO 2025 121 4.7 CONCLUSIONS 139 CHAPTER 5: DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS 144 5.1 INTRODUCTION 144 5.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 145 5.2 MODELING OF THE VIRUS IN A POPULATION 145 5.2.1 EXISTING MODELS IN LITERATURE 146 5.2.2 RELATION OF CURRENT MODEL STRUCTURE TO PRIOR HIV/AIDS MODELS 149 5.3 THE 3RD LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL AND BAU PROJECTIONS TO 2050 150 5.3.1 MODEL FORMULATION 150 5.3.2 BAU PROJECTIONS FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 163 5.3.3 BAU PROJECTIONS FOR BOTSWANA 179 5.4 THE 2ND LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL 187 5.5 THE 1ST LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL 191 5.6 ADVANTAGES OF MULTILEVEL DESIGN 194 5.7 CONCLUSIONS 194 CHAPTER 6: SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS 196 6.1 INTRODUCTION 196 6.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 196 6.2 THE ECONOMIC MODEL 197 6.3 BAU SCENARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 198 6.3.1 ECONOMIC MODEL RESULTS FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 199 6.3.2 ECONOMIC MODEL RESULTS FOR BOTSWANA 200 6.4 CONCLUSIONS 201 CHAPTER 7: OPTIMISTIC VISION- ACHIEVING THE UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL FOR HIV/AIDS 202 iv 7.1. INTRODUCTION 202 7.2 THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 204 7.2.1 THE GOALS 204 7.2.2 THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 206 7.2.3 THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT TASK FORCE ON HIV/AIDS 206 7.3 TARGETS 207 7.3.1 TARGETS FOR PREVENTION 209 7.3.2 TARGETS FOR TREATMENT 210 7.4 IMPACT OF ACHIEVING TARGETS 211 7.5 COST OF THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT FOR HIV/AIDS 212 7.5.1 COSTS FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 214 7.5.2 COSTS FOR BOTSWANA 217 7.6 ANALYSIS OF THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT SCENARIO USING GLOBESIGHT 217 7.6.1 FEASIBILITY OF REACHING THE GOAL ON HIV/AIDS BY 2015 218 7.6.2 RESOURCES: INTERNATIONAL AID AND THE 0.7 PERCENT GNI TARGET 218 7.6.3 MODELING PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS 219 7.6.3.1 MOTHER-TO-CHILD TRANSMISSION 80 PERCENT COVERAGE TARGET 219 7.6.3.2 INTEGRATED PREVENTION AND TREATMENT 220 7.6.4 MODELING TREATMENT INTERVENTIONS 221 7.6.4.1 ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY 75 PERCENT COVERAGE TARGET 221 7.6.4.2 HIV INFECTIVITY REDUCTION 221 7.6.4.3 OTHER TREATMENT AND PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS 222 7.6.5 DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 222 7.6.5.1 DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 222 7.6.5.2 DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT: BOTSWANA 230 7.6.6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT 238 7.6.6.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 238 7.6.6.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT: BOTSWANA 239 7.7 IMPACT OF MILLENNIUM PROJECT CONTINUATION THROUGH 2050 240 7.7.1 IMPACT OF CONTINUATION THROUGH 2050: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 240 7.7.2 IMPACTS OF CONTINUATION THROUGH 2050: BOTSWANA 249 7.8 CONCLUSIONS 255 CHAPTER 8: IMPACT OF THE POST-PEAK OIL ERA ON THE SUB- SAHARAN HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC 258 8.1 INTRODUCTION 258 8.1.1 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 258 8.2 IMPACTS OF THE OIL DEFICIT ON ODA AND THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC 259 8.3 ADDITIONAL AIDS DEATHS PER BARREL OF OECD OIL DEFICIT 267 8.4 INTEGRATED SCENARIOS THROUGH YEAR 2050 270 CHAPTER 9: CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS 273 9.1 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 273 v 9.2 FUTURE RESEARCH 275 APPENDIX 1: MATHEMATICAL MODEL EQUATIONS 276 VARIABLE NAMING CONVENTION FOR MODEL EQUATIONS 276 1ST LEVEL POPULATION EQUATIONS 277 2ND LEVEL POPULATION EQUATIONS 277 3RD LEVEL POPULATION EQUATIONS 278 1ST LEVEL OIL EQUATIONS 280 2ND LEVEL OIL WITH ECONOMIC FEEDBACK EQUATIONS 281 1ST LEVEL HIV/AIDS POPULATION EQUATIONS 283 2ND LEVEL HIV/AIDS POPULATION EQUATIONS 284 3RD LEVEL HIV/AIDS POPULATION EQUATIONS 285 1ST LEVEL ECONOMIC EQUATIONS 292 APPENDIX 2: GLOBESIGHT VARIABLE DECLARATIONS (XML) 293 POPULATION PROJECT 293 OIL TRANSITION PROJECT 301 HIV/AIDS POPULATION & ECONOMIC PROJECT 312 APPENDIX 3: GLOBESIGHT MODEL CODE (JAVA LANGUAGE) 335 1ST LEVEL POPULATION MODEL 335 2ND LEVEL POPULATION MODEL 336 3RD LEVEL POPULATION MODEL 337 1ST LEVEL OIL MODEL 341 2ND LEVEL OIL MODEL 344 1ST LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL 350 2ND LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL 351 3RD LEVEL HIV/AIDS MODEL 353 1ST LEVEL ECONOMIC MODEL 361 APPENDIX 4: MODEL DATA 363 APPENDIX 5: INSTRUCTIONS FOR 3RD LEVEL POPULATION MODEL 377 BIBLIOGRAPHY 381 vi List of Figures Figure 1.1: Integrated Assessment Structure________________________________ 2 Figure 2.1: DAC members’ bilateral and multilateral aid to HIV/AIDS control, average commitments 2000-02, millions of USD [Source: OECD DAC, 2004]_ 9 Figure 2.2: World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel [Source: IEA, WEO 2004] _ 11 Figure 2.3: USGS vs. Campbell/Laherrere Ultimate Recovery Estimates [Source: DoE EIA] ________________________________________________________ 13 Figure 2.4: Ultimate Recovery Estimates from 65 Different Organizations [Source: ASPO, 2004]______________________________________________________ 14 Figure 2.5: Giant Oil Field Discoveries per Decade 1850 – 2000 [Source: Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Group, 2004] _________________________ 14 Figure 2.6: Addition to World Proven Oil Reserves from the Discovery of New Fields and Production [Source: ASPO, 2004] __________________________ 16 Figure 2.7: New Field Wildcats vs. Cumulative Added Volume [Source: ASPO, 2004]______________________________________________________ 16 Figure 2.8: Hubbert Curve for Annual Production [Source: Laherrere, 1998] ___ 18 Figure 2.9: Oil and Gas Liquids Global Production Aggregate [Source: Campbell, 2004]___________________________________________________ 20 Figure 2.10: USGS 2000 Ultimately Recoverable Oil and NGL Resources [Source: USGS, 2000]______________________________________________________ 21 Figure 2.11: USGS Ultimately Recoverable Oil vs. Trend in Discovery [Source: Campbell, 2005]___________________________________________________ 22 Figure 2.12: Saudi Aramco Fields and Percentage of Reserves Produced [Source: Saudi Aramco, 2004]_______________________________________________ 23 Figure 2.13: Proven Oil Reserves by Region per BP Statistical Review [Source: BP, 2004] ____________________________________________________________ 24 Figure 2.14: Global (minus ME & FSU) Peak Year Production by Region [Source: ASPO, 2004]______________________________________________________ 25 Figure 2.15: Discovery and Production for FSU 1930-2050 [Source: ASPO, 2004]______________________________________________________ 26 Figure 2.16: World Oil Demand by Region and Sector 1980-2030 [Source: Exxon Mobile, 2004] _______________________________________________ 27 Figure 2.17: IEA Estimates for 2001 & 2025 OPEC Production Required [Source: DoE EIA, 2004] ___________________________________________________ 28 Figure 2.18: Saudi Aramco Maximum Sustainable Capacity 2000-2050 [Source: Saudi Aramco, 2004]_______________________________________________ 29 Figure 2.19: Global Decline in Oil Supply and Required New Production [Source: Exxon, 2003] _____________________________________________________ 30 Figure 2.20: OECD Oil Consumption vs. GDP Growth 1961-2002 [Data Source: World Bank/EIA, 2006] _____________________________________ 31 Figure 2.21: Global Oil Supply Disruptions 1951-2004 [Data Source: EIA, 2005]_ 33 Figure 2.22: GDP vs. Vehicle-Miles of Travel 1960-2000 [Source: US Department of Transportation, 2002]_________________________________