CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA, REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA Regional Assessment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS PROJECT CO-ORDINATION Within the framework of the project Climate Change and Security in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus under the Christine Kitzler, Dana Bogdan (OSCE) Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC), one of the four main activities aimed at identifying and mapping climate change and security risks in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the South Caucasus in a participatory way, the conclusions of which are presented in the current report for the South Caucasus. ASSESSMENT CO-ORDINATION Harald Egerer, Pier Carlo Sandei, Filippo Montalbetti (UN Environment), Valentin Yemelin (GRID-Arendal) The Austrian Development Agency (ADA) has co-funded the project by providing financial resources for the project activities in the pilot region in the Dniester River Basin. Moreover, the ENVSEC initiative partners the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UN Environment, the United Nations Economic Commission for LEAD AUTHOR Europe (UNECE) and the Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) contributed their own resources to the Ieva Rucevska (GRID-Arendal) implementation of this project. CONTRIBUTORS AND REVIEWERS Nino Malashkhia (OSCE) Trine Kirkfeldt, Hanne Jørstad, Valentin Yemelin (GRID-Arnedal) Mahir Aliyev (UN Environment) Zsolt Lengyel (Climate East Policy) The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the ENVSEC partner organizations, their donors or the participating States. Participants in the national consultations that took place in the Republic of Armenia (Yerevan, 12 May 2014), the Republic of Azerbaijan (Baku, 30 May 2014) and in Georgia (Tbilisi, 8 May 2014) commented and contributed to the regional assessment. The pre-final version The contents of this publication, the views, the opinions, findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the of the regional assessment was widely discussed and approved during the ENVSEC Regional Consultation Meeting on Climate Change authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the partner organizations or of their participating States. Although partner and Security in the South Caucasus (21-22 June 2016) organizations have invested the utmost care in its preparation, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of any information, instructions and advice provided, or for misprints. EDITING BY Geoff Hughes (Zoï Environment Network) The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the partner organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authority, or delineation of its frontiers and boundaries. No claims can be made against the partner organizations with respect to potential consequences from the reliance on VISUALS BY information or conclusions contained in this publication. Manana Kurtubadze (GRID-Arendal) Matthias Beilstein (Zoï Environment Network) We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. The European Union (EU) through its Instrument for Stability has provided support to the Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) for contributing to regional stability through transboundary co-operation on adaptation to the consequences of climate change. The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) is a partnership of five international organizations – the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), UN Environment (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) – with specialized, but complementary mandates and expertise, that provides an integrated response to environment and security chal- lenges. The mission of ENVSEC is to contribute to the reduction of environment and security risks through strengthened co-operation among and within countries in four regions: Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and South-Eastern Europe. The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) as a platform for co-operation provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase co-operation between groups and countries. Detailed infor- mation on ENVSEC is available at www.envsec.org The assessments herein rely on the most recent statistical data available, while the recommendations take into account the latest developments and trends. 2 Climate Change and Security in the South Caucasus – Regional Assessment Report ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 6 3.3. Extreme events: Dynamics and projections 42 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 7 3.4. Slow onset events: Dynamics and projections 43 SUMMARY 10 4. CLIMATE HAZARDS AND STRESSORS 50 1. METHODOLOGY 12 4.1. Flooding and related hazards 51 1.1. Phase 1: Desk studies 14 4.2. Droughts 52 1.1.1. Survey of underlying political, socioeconomic and environmental conditions 14 4.3. Extreme weather events: Heavy precipitation, hailstorms, frosts and winds 53 1.1.2. Current and projected climate change 14 4.4. Region-specific hazards: Sea level rise and enhanced coastal flooding 53 1.1.3. Climate hazards and stressors 14 5. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS AND VULNERABILITY 56 1.1.4. Impact and vulnerability assessment 14 5.1. Structural, socioeconomic and environmental consequences of climate change 56 1.1.5. Climate change and security hotspots 15 5.1.1. Changes in human and livelihood security 56 1.2. Phase 2: National and regional consultations 16 5.1.2. Additional pressures and competition over scarce natural resources 58 1.3. Phase 3: Joint analysis 16 5.1.3. Changes in agricultural productivity and food security 59 1.4. A note on the limitations of the methodology 17 5.1.4. Economic changes 60 2. EXISTING POLITICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 18 5.1.5. Social tensions 61 5.1.6. Infrastructure vulnerability 63 2.1. The geopolitical situation and broad security influences 18 2.2. Climate change politics and mainstreaming 18 5.1.7. Changes in the spread of diseases 64 2.3 Governance 20 5.1.8. Changes in income and poverty 65 2.3.1. Local governance 21 5.1.9. Changes in migration 65 2.3.2. Environmental activism 22 5.2. Adaptive capacity 67 2.3.3. International frameworks for environmental governance 22 5.2.1. Financial capacity 67 2.4. Social dynamics 22 5.2.2. Institutional capacity 70 2.4.1. Socioeconomic migration 23 5.2.3. Regional processes 70 2.4.2. Urbanization 23 5.2.4. National climate change policies and plans 71 2.4.3. Environmental migration 24 6. CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY HOTSPOTS 74 2.4.4. Education 25 6.1. Regional/transboundary hotspots 74 2.4.5. Poverty and welfare 25 6.1.1. Northern Armenia and southern Georgia 74 2.5. The economic situation 26 6.1.2. North-west Azerbaijan and north-east Georgia (Alazani/Ganykh River basin) 76 2.6. The availability and condition of natural resources 28 6.2.1. Armenia 77 2.7. Agriculture and food security 32 6.2. National hotspots 77 2.8. Energy production and security 33 6.2.2. Azerbaijan 80 2.9. Water-agriculture-energy nexus 37 6.2.3. Georgia 82 2.10. Critical infrastructure 38 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 92 3. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION 40 RESOURCES 106 3.1. Trends 40 LIST OF VISUALS 114 3.2. Scenarios 41 4 Climate Change and Security in the South Caucasus – Regional Assessment Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS GLOSSARY OF TERMS ADA Austrian Development Agency Source: Except where noted, definitions come from IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: CBD Convention on Biological Diversity Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. EaPTC Eastern Partnership Territorial Co-operation EC European Commission Adaptation The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. ENPARD European Neighbourhood Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development Adaptive capacity The ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take ENVSEC Environment and Security Initiative advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. EU European Union Afforestation Planting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained forests. FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Biodiversity The variability among living organisms from terrestrial, marine and other ecosystems. GDP Gross Domestic Product Dangerously hot days Days with temperatures above 27°C, which in combination with humidity results in even higher GEF Global Environment Facility experienced temperatures. [UNDP] GHG Greenhouse Gas Deforestation Conversion of forest to non-forest. GIZ The German Federal Enterprise for International Co-operation Drought A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. GWh Gigawatt hours Ecosystem An ecosystem is a functional unit consisting of living organisms, their non-living