EVI Report The Demonstration Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission April 2003 SOPAC Technical Report 356 Technical Report The Demonstration Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) By: Ursula Kaly, Craig Pratt, Jonathan Mitchell and Russell Howorth April 2003 Cataloguing-in-publication data: Kaly, U.L., Pratt, C.R., Mitchell, J. and Howorth, R. 2003. The Demonstration Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI). SOPAC Technical Report 356, 136 pp; 5 appendices, 8 tables, 9 figures. 1. Vulnerability index – environment All rights reserved. Figures, tables, and short excerpts may be reprinted and used for non- commercial purposes provided the source is properly cited. This project has been supported by UNEP, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand and Norway. Acronyms AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States BINAS Biosafety Information Network and Advisory Service BGS British Geological Survey CIA US Central Intelligence Agency Fact Book CIESIN Centre for International Earth Science Information Network CRED Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters EMDAT Emergency Events Database (CRED, OFDA, OECD, WHO) EVI Environmental Vulnerability Index and Profiles FAO UN Food & Agricultural Organisation GEO3 Global Environment Outlook 3 GMO Genetically-Modified Organism GROMS Global Register of Migratory Species HDR Human Development Report IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISAAA International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications ITOPF International Tanker-Owners Pollution Federation Ltd IUCN World Conservation Union MEA Multilateral Environmental Agreement NOAA US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration NZAID New Zealand Agency for International Development OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development OFDA Office of the US Foreign Disaster Assistance PIC Pacific Island Country SEDAC Social Economic Data Applications Centre SIDS Small Island Developing States SIS Small Island States SOE State of the Environment SOPAC South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission SPILLS Worldwide Tanker Spill Database (etcentre.org) SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme SST Sea-surface temperature UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme USGS US Geological Survey WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Centre WDI World Development Indicators WHO UN World Health Organisation WRI World Resources Institute WTO World Tourism Organisation Demonstration EVI Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ______________________________________________________________________ 1 1.1 Background of the project ____________________________________________________1 1.2 Aims for Phase III and the Demonstration EVI ____________________________________2 2 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VULNERABILITY, INDICES & THE EVI____________________________ 3 2.1 The nature and terminology of vulnerability _______________________________________3 2.2 Review of environmental indicators and indices ___________________________________4 2.3 Uniqueness of the EVI approach _______________________________________________5 2.4 Summary of the mechanics of the EVI___________________________________________6 2.4.1 Definitions_________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.4.2 Theoretical framework _______________________________________________________________ 7 2.4.3 The sub-indices and smart indicators____________________________________________________ 8 2.4.4 Quantifying vulnerability_____________________________________________________________ 10 2.4.5 Strengths & weaknesses ____________________________________________________________ 11 3 GENERAL APPROACH AND METHODS __________________________________________________ 12 3.1 Establishing collaborators and the EVI database _________________________________13 3.2 Understanding characteristics of the data and setting the EVI scoring for indicators ______13 3.3 Criteria for testing the EVI ___________________________________________________15 3.3.1 Criterion 1: Test for redundant indicators________________________________________________ 15 3.3.2 Criterion 2: Scoring for indicators is global_______________________________________________ 16 3.3.3 Criterion 3: Validation_______________________________________________________________ 16 4 RESULTS FOR THE DEMONSTRATION EVI_______________________________________________ 17 4.1 Collaborators and status of the Global EVI Database ______________________________17 4.1.1 Overall data for the Demonstration EVI and setting scores for indicators_______________________ 17 4.1.2 Average data returns on a country-by-country basis _______________________________________ 17 4.1.3 Data from collaborators _____________________________________________________________ 19 4.2 Natural distributions and EVI scoring for individual indicators ________________________19 4.2.1 Indicators not applicable to some countries______________________________________________ 19 4.2.2 Indicators correlated with country size__________________________________________________ 19 4.2.3 Indicators on a natural logarithm scale__________________________________________________ 20 4.2.4 Mapping on 1 – 7 Scale _____________________________________________________________ 21 4.3 Results for Criterion 1: Redundant indicators ____________________________________25 4.4 Results for Criterion 2: Scoring is inclusive of world-wide conditions and similar countries cluster together on the EVI scale ______________________________________________28 4.5 EVI scores for 235 countries (including collaborators)______________________________28 4.5.1 EVI values and patterns among countries and regions _____________________________________ 28 4.5.2 EVI profiles and country sheets _______________________________________________________ 31 5 CONCLUSIONS, FUTURE STEPS & RECOMMENDATIONS __________________________________ 32 5.1 Conclusions drawn from the Demonstration EVI __________________________________32 5.2 Future directions – steps to completion _________________________________________33 5.2.1 The need for data: Moving from ‘Demonstration’ to ‘Final’ EVI _______________________________ 33 5.2.2 Establishing permanent data-collection mechanisms & interactive database____________________ 33 5.2.3 Testing with a full data-set ___________________________________________________________ 33 5.2.4 Criterion 3: The final test ____________________________________________________________ 33 5.2.5 Timeline to completion ______________________________________________________________ 33 5.3 Recommendations _________________________________________________________34 The Demonstration Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) Demonstration EVI 6 REFERENCES_______________________________________________________________________ 35 6.1 Literature review ___________________________________________________________35 6.2 References, sources and contacts for data ______________________________________39 7 APPENDICES _______________________________________________________________________ 61 7.1 EVI Definitions ____________________________________________________________61 7.2 EVI Bibliography ___________________________________________________________63 7.3 Information sheets for other environmental indicators and indices ____________________65 7.3.1 State of Environment – Environmental Indicators _________________________________________ 65 7.3.2 Ecological Footprint ________________________________________________________________ 70 7.3.3 Indicators of Sustainable Development _________________________________________________ 71 7.3.4 Vulnerability Indices ________________________________________________________________ 77 7.4 Selected test results sheets for individual indicators _______________________________82 7.5 Demonstration EVI Scores for 235 Countries ____________________________________89 Figures & Tables Figure 1: Concept diagram showing data requirements for the two separate functions of (a) setting indicator scoring levels and (b) calculating valid EVI scores for the Demonstration EVI. _________________ 12 Figure 2: Status of the EVI database used for setting levels of indicators and producing the Demonstration EVI. ____________________________________________________________________________ 17 Figure 3: Data returns for 32 collaborating countries at February 2003._______________________________ 19 Figure 4: Frequency distribution of EVI data for Indicator 52 showing (a) the highly clustered nature of the data and (b) the effect of logarithmic transformation. _________________________________________ 20 Figure 5: Correlation matrix for 41 indicators showing other indicators with which each is correlated. _______ 27 Figure 6: Plots of mean EVI, REI, IRI and EDI scores for 9 regions around the globe. ___________________ 29 Figure 7: Cluster analysis for all Asian countries included in the Demonstration EVI. ____________________ 30 Figure 8: Cluster analysis for all Oceania countries included in the Demonstration EVI. __________________ 30 Figure 9: Cluster analysis for all South American and Caribbean countries included in the Demonstration EVI. 31 Table 1: Summary of main environmental and vulnerability indices and indicators currently under development. _____________________________________________________________________________ 4 Table 2: Summary of Indicators selected for the EVI. _____________________________________________ 9 Table 3: Summary of mean data returns by region.______________________________________________