Italy’s threat to the euro Silicon Valley’s kill-zone What investors can learn from poker How humans got bigger brains JUNE 2ND–8TH 2018 The surveillance state Perfected in China, a threat in the West Your Business Becomes Our Business.TM That’s why we make more eCommerce deliveries to homes than anyone in the country. Learn more at usps.com/shippingforyou Trademarks are used with permission. Appearance does not constitute a USPS endorsement. United States Postal Service. All Rights Reserved. The Eagle Logo is among the many trademarks of the U.S. Postal Service.® Contents The Economist June 2nd 2018 3 7 The world this week Asia 33 Korean summitry Leaders Trump-Kim, on again 11 The surveillance state 34 Thai culture Perfected in China, a The politics of dressing up threat in the West 35 Singapore’s architecture 12 America and immigrants So long, Brutalism A cruel and unusual 36 Banyan border policy Why despair of Indian 12 Drug testing democracy? Just say know Curbing illegal immgration Separating migrant families is 13 Speed limits China un-American and bound to Live fast, die fast 37 Regional development fail: leader, page 12. Putting a On the cover 14 Italy and the euro The power of big data horrific practice in historical The state can gather more Handle with care 38 The digital Silk Road and international context, information, more easily, An inland city’s dreams page 27 than ever before. Do not Letters underestimate the risks: 16 On plasma donations, Britain leader, page 11. Totalitarian languages, unemployment, determination and modern 39 Universal credit offshore finance, technology have turned The new safety net education, men Xinjiang into a police state, 40 Abortion in Ireland page 19. Unparalleled Non-identical twins surveillance capacity and Briefing 42 Bagehot vast amounts of data are 19 Inside Xinjiang Politics and drink radically transforming Apartheid with Chinese criminal-justice systems: characteristics Technology Quarterly, after Technology Quarterly page 42 Surveillance, data and United States criminal justice Italy and the euro Italy can 23 Running San Francisco After page 42 find a way out of its immediate The Economist online Reach for the sky crisis. The long-term outlook is more worrying: leader, page 14. Daily analysis and opinion to 24 California’s homeless Middle East and Africa A fine balance The right-wing Northern supplement the print edition, plus 43 Climate change in the League is on a roll, page 47. audio and video, and a daily chart 26 Puerto Rico Arab world A political crisis in southern Economist.com Counting the dead Too hot to handle Europe and fears for the future E-mail: newsletters and 26 The opioid epidemic 44 Russia in the Middle East of the euro zone roil financial mobile edition Seeking the right The balancing bear markets once more, page 63 Economist.com/email prescription 44 A Ramadan viewing guide Print edition: available online by 27 Immigration policy Cairo Five-0 7pm London time each Thursday Suffer the children Economist.com/printedition 45 Social security in Africa 27 Culture wars Extending the safety-net Audio edition: available online Roseanne’s 46 Fighting talk in Cameroon to download each Friday self-immolation Economist.com/audioedition A potential war over words 28 Lexington 46 Fast funerals in Guinea John Bolton, the world’s Do not go gently hope The Americas Volume 427 Number 9094 29 Education in Mexico Published since September1843 Korea summitry Detente to take part in "a severe contest between An object lesson intelligence, which presses forward, and between America and North an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing 30 North American Korea seems back on track, for our progress." diplomacy now, page 33. Donald Trump’s Editorial offices in London and also: A river runs through it belligerent national security Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Madrid, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, New Delhi, 30 Barbadian politics adviser: Lexington, page 28 New York, Paris, San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, A clean sweep Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC 32 Brazilian lorries Strike against the system 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The Economist June 2nd 2018 Europe 65 Trade negotiations Puzzle pieces 47 Italy’s political chaos Matteo Salvini’s quest 66 New banks in America for power Small is beautiful 48 French country roads 68 Buttonwood Taking it easy Lessons from Las Vegas 48 Strikes in France 69 The trade in used clothes Neap tide Worn out 50 Ireland votes to allow 70 Free exchange abortion Power is money Silicon Valley’s kill-zone A modern country Brain size Genes crucial to the Big, rich and paranoid, today’s 51 Turkey’s opposition Science and technology evolutionary expansion of the tech giants are making life Wind in their sails 71 Evolution human brain have been complicated for startups, 52 Charlemagne The history of discovered, page 71 page 55 Germany under the 1968 big-headedness generation 72 Conservation Subscription service A great survivor For our latest subscription offers, visit 73 The sunk-cost fallacy Economist.com/offers International For subscription service, please contact by 53 Effective altruism Ball-game theory telephone, fax, web or mail at the details provided below: Faith, hope and clarity 73 AIDS Parthian shots North America 54 Career choices The Economist Subscription Center Put money in thy purse 74 Space flight P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 Munching into orbit Facsimile: +1 866 856 8075 E-mail: [email protected] Business Latin America & Mexico 55 The future of tech Books and arts The Economist Subscription Center P.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 startups 75 A dystopian prophecy Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 Lessons from poker For all Into the danger zone We and us Facsimile: +1 636 449 5703 but the most talented, a E-mail: [email protected] 56 Bartleby 76 Michael Ondaatje’s rules-based approach works Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) Not working properly new novel best—in poker and investing: In the shadows of war United States US $158.25 (plus tax) Buttonwood, page 68 57 Vedanta Resources Canada CA $158.25 (plus tax) Copper bottom 77 Retro photography Latin America US $289 (plus tax) 58 ThyssenKrupp Ghosts in the machine Steeling itself 77 A startup’s rise and fall Blood money Principal commercial offices: 59 European low-cost The Adelphi Building, 1-11John Adam Street, carriers 78 Madness and desire London WC2N 6HT Wizz on the up Better to have loved Tel: +44 (0) 20 7830 7000 Rue de l’Athénée 32 59 Media mergers 1206 Geneva, Switzerland There can be only one 80 Economic and financial Tel: +4122 566 2470 60 Chinese tea chains indicators 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 A new leaf Statistics on 42 economies, Tel: +1212 5410500 1301Cityplaza Four, 61 Schumpeter plus a closer look at central banks 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Six muddles about share Tel: +852 2585 3888 Effective altruism A growing buy-backs Other commercial offices: movement is trying to bring Obituary Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, scientific rigour to Paris, San Francisco and Singapore Finance and economics 82 Lini Puthussery philanthropy, page 53. Why Treating a mystery job-hunting do-gooders should 63 Italy and financial ponder the counterfactual, markets page 54 Tragedy or farce? 64 Greek banks’ bad loans Rebuilding the ruins 65 Monetary policy and inflation Turkish baroque PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certified to PEFC PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2018 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, N Y 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 COLLECTION Fit y Fathoms RAISE AWARENESS, TRANSMIT OUR PASSION, HELP PROTECT THE OCEAN BEIJING · CANNES · DUBAI · GENEVA · HONG KONG · LAS VEGAS · LONDON · MACAU · MADRID ©Photograph: Laurent Ballesta/Gombessa Project ©Photograph: Laurent www.blancpain-ocean-commitment.com MANAMA · MOSCOW · MUNICH · NEW YORK · PARIS · SEOUL · SHANGHAI · SINGAPORE · TAIPEI · TOKYO · ZURICH The world this week The Economist June 2nd 2018 7 saying that the hoax had been peace deal with FARC guerril- highlighted the treatment of Politics planned to catch Russian las. Mr Petro used to belong to hundreds ofthousands of agents. He apologised to his a separate armed group. Uighur Muslims in China wife forthe distress he caused. who have been sent to re-education camps, and criti- Murdered in Mozambique cised Saudi Arabia for its At least ten people, including non-tolerance ofreligions several children, were behead- other than Sunni Islam. ed in northern Mozambique. The attackwas blamed on a Burkina Faso became the latest group ofjihadists. The group country to breakdiplomatic has conducted sporadic attacks ties with Ta iwa n . After a cam- in the country since 2015. paign by China to lure away Taiwan’s allies, only a handful Zimbabwe will hold national ofcountries still recognise it.