Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2018 Anti-Establishment Political Parties: Conception, Measurement, and Consequences Teresa Lee Cornacchione Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND PUBLIC POLICY ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POLITICAL PARTIES: CONCEPTION, MEASUREMENT, AND CONSEQUENCES By TERESA CORNACCHIONE A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2018 Copyright © 2018 Teresa Cornacchione. All Rights Reserved. Teresa Cornacchione defended this dissertation on July 11, 2018. The members of the supervisory committee were: Sean Ehrlich Professor Directing Dissertation Jonathan Grant University Representative Carol S. Weissert Committee Member Brad Gomez Committee Member Quintin Beazer Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii I dedicate this dissertation to my daughter, Sadie. I hope she always remembers that a girl should be two things: who and what she wants. -Coco Chanel iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank several people for their assistance, professional and personal, in the completion of this dissertation. Thank you to several research assistants, Kevin Monnell, Sara Moustafa, and Linnea Blackmore for assisting in the collection and coding of data. Thank you to my dissertation chair, Dr. Sean Ehrlich, for not only reading multiple versions of everything I have written, and holding to me a high standard, but also making sure my sanity was preserved in this process. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Carol Weissert, Dr. Brad Gomez, Dr. Quintin Beazer, and Dr. Jonathan Grant, for agreeing to serve on my committee. Also, thank you to the political science faculty at Florida State University, particularly, Dr. Matthew Pietryka, and the comparative subfield faculty members, for offering feedback on various drafts of dissertation chapters. Personally, I would also like to thank my parents, Connie and Frank, for their unending support and encouragement. They have always taken a great interest in what I do, and never cease to support me in my endeavors. I also would like to thank my partner, David, for not only providing me with excellent personal support, but also for always being willing to read my work and offer feedback. His love and support not only improved my work, but it made me better (and more efficient) too. Thanks for not letting me float away. Last, but never least, I would like to thank my daughter, who at the time of my completing this dissertation is a little too young to fully grasp what her mother was working toward. She is the light of my life and her smile keeps me going every day. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables . vii List of Figures . x Abstract . xiii 1 Defining the Anti-Establishment 1 1.1 Defining the Anti-Establishment . 5 1.1.1 Distrust of Political Elite . 7 1.1.2 Departure from the Status Quo to Alleviate a Crisis . 10 1.1.3 Putting the Nation First . 11 1.2 From the Right, the Left, and the Center . 13 1.2.1 From the Right: The PVV, AfD, and National Front . 13 1.2.2 From the Left: The Five Star Movement, Podemos, and Pirates . 15 1.2.3 From the Center? En Marche-and the Curious Case of Emmanuel Macron . 17 1.3 Discussion . 18 2 Measuring the Anti-Establishment 20 2.1 From Conceptualization to Measurement . 20 2.2 Where are the Parties? . 25 2.2.1 United Kingdom . 27 2.2.2 Italy . 30 2.2.3 Spain . 31 2.2.4 Germany . 33 2.2.5 France . 35 2.2.6 Netherlands . 37 2.2.7 Austria . 39 2.3 Validity of the Measure . 41 2.4 Conclusion . 47 3 Letting the Outsiders In: Trust and Electoral Support of the Anti-Establishment 49 3.1 Vote Choice for the Anti-Establishment . 51 3.1.1 The European Elections . 55 3.1.2 From the Right and Left and Center: Anti-Establishment Parties in the Netherlands, Italy, France, and Germany . 56 3.1.3 The Netherlands 2010 . 57 3.1.4 Italy 2013 . 58 3.1.5 France 2017 . 58 3.1.6 Germany 2013 . 59 3.2 Data and Methods . 60 3.2.1 Dependent Variables . 60 3.2.2 Independent Variables . 62 3.2.3 Control Variables . 63 v 3.3 Results . 65 3.3.1 Cross-National Results . 65 3.3.2 Country-Level Results . 72 3.4 Discussion . 97 4 From Making Noise to Making Policy: Parliamentary Activities of the Anti- Establishment 100 4.1 Parliamentary Activities, MPs, and Party Dynamics . 102 4.2 The Anti-Establishment Agenda and Legislative Activities . 104 4.3 Data and Methods . 106 4.3.1 Dependent Variables . 107 4.3.2 Explanatory and Control Variables . 108 4.4 Results . 109 4.4.1 European Parliament . 109 4.4.2 Italian Parliament . 122 4.5 Discussion . 135 5 Left, Right, and Everything in Between: Final Thoughts on the Anti-Establishment Movement 138 Appendices A Anti-Establishment Scores 145 A.1 All European Countries . 145 A.2 Greek Parties . 153 B Additional Models 155 B.1 Netherlands . 155 B.2 Italy . 157 B.3 France . 160 C Issue Attention of Non-Core Issues 163 C.1 European Parliament . 163 C.2 Italy . 163 Bibliography . 164 Biographical Sketch . 175 vi LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Concepts and Operationalization . 23 2.2 Correlation Among Anti-Establishment Variables . 24 2.3 Anti-Establishment Sentiment Components . 24 2.4 Alternative Anti-Establishment Sentiment Components . 25 2.5 Predicting Corruption Salience. Anti-Estabishment Sentiment and CHES Anti-Elite Salience Measure . 43 2.6 Comparing the Measure to Abedi's Classification . 45 2.7 Predicting Sentiment Toward the EU . 46 3.1 Probit Model: Voting for an Anti-Establishment Party for National Parliament . 66 3.2 Model 2, Multinomial Results: Voting for an AE Party on the Domestic Level . 69 3.3 Probability of Voting for an Anti-Establishment Party: European Parliament . 71 3.4 Main Results-Netherlands . 73 3.5 Model 5, Netherlands-Multinomial Results . 76 3.6 Probability of Voting for the PVV over the VVD . 77 3.7 Italian Probit Model: Predicting Support for the Five Star Movement . 79 3.8 Italy-Multinomial Results . 81 3.9 Probability of Voting for the M5S over the Left Alliance . 82 3.10 Probability of Voting for Macron or Le Pen in the 1st Round . 85 3.11 Multinomial Results: Votes in the First Round . 87 3.12 Probability of Voting for Macron or Le Pen in the Second Round . 88 3.13 Democratic Satisfaction and Voting for Anti-Establishment Parties-Germany 2013 . 91 3.14 Multinomial Results. Effects on Probability of Selecting Parties Over the CDU/CSU- Party List Voting . 93 3.15 Multinomial Results. Effects on Probability of Selecting Parties Over the CDU/CSU- Constituency Level Voting . 94 vii 3.16 Effects on Probability of Voting for the AfD over Die Linke . 95 4.1 Data Availability by Case . 107 4.2 European Parliament. Effect of Anti-Establishment Score on the Number of Questions Asked . 110 4.3 European Parliament. Number of Parliamentary Questions Anti-Establishment Par- ties versus Establishment Opposition . 111 4.4 European Parliament. Effect on Probability of Asking a Question Devoted to a Core Issue . ..