MORGAN STANLEY U.S. Investment Research May 28, 1997 Internet Mary Meeker, Internet (212) 761-8042 / [email protected] Retail Sharon Pearson, Retail (212) 761-6415 / [email protected] The Internet Retailing Report The Future of Web-Based Retailing Should Mimic • Internet-based retailing/commerce is alive and well. The History of Mail Order-Based Retailing — Revenue and usage trends from Web-based retail- But with a Faster and Longer Ramp ing/commerce leaders (such as CUC, America Online, Dell, and E*Trade) are positive. Sequential rates of Mail Order revenue growth for many other emerging Web-specific Retailing retailers (such as Amazon.com) have been encouraging, though early-stage losses are also high. • Revenue In this report we describe the trends, the companies, Web Retailing and the outlook for Internet-based retailing. Based on our review of the development of retailing in the past, we conclude that, in time, the opportunity for retailing Time and direct-marketing cost savings on the Web will be significant, though it will likely only affect certain re- tailing sectors. • The Internet is supporting unprecedented growth and is affecting many industries we have found it Contributors: useful to cross industry disciplines (in this case, technol- Steve Roach, Economist (212) 761-7153 ogy and retailing) to fully understand the evolution of Sheelagh McCaughey, Retail (212) 761-7155 business on the Internet. This report is the third in a Chris DePuy, Internet Infrastructure (212) 761-6562 series that includes The Internet Advertising Report Research Assistance: (published December 1996) and The Internet Report Russell Grandinetti, Technology (212) 761-4864 (published December 1995). Alex Cobb, Technology (212) 761-6004 This report will be downloadable from Morgan Stanley’s Web site (www.ms.com) in late June 1997. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Please refer to the notes at the end of this report. MORGAN STANLEY The Internet Retailing Report — Table of Contents Introduction Chapter Summaries........................................................................................................................ vi u Chapter 1: Morgan Stanley Internet Retail Stock Portfolio and Proxies Additional Thoughts on Our Portfolio.............................................................................................1-2 Relative Company Valuations, in Time, Will Likely Move Down for Pure-Play Internet Retailers .. 1-2 The Portfolio Companies... .............................................................................................................1-3 The Proxy Companies.....................................................................................................................1-6 u Chapter 2: An Update on Internet Usage Trends/Forecasts A Perspective on the Evolution of the Internet ................................................................................2-1 Internet Adoption Is Happening Faster than in Other Media...........................................................2-2 Internet Market Size — Big and Bigger..........................................................................................2-3 u Chapter 3: Assessing the Potential of the Internet As a Retailing Channel Web Usage Growth and Demographics Are Compelling.................................................................3-2 The Internet Is a New Distribution Channel....................................................................................3-2 The Web Provides One-to-One Marketing Capabilities ...................................................................3-3 Biggest Retail Market Opportunities on the Internet Will Likely Coincide with Mail-Order Opportunities.......................................................................................................3-4 Internet-Based Financial Services — A True Sweet Spot ................................................................3-6 Many Web Shopping Formats Should Do Well... ............................................................................3-7 Barriers to Entry — Low or High?..................................................................................................3-8 Brand-Name Recognition Will Be Key ...........................................................................................3-9 Scale, Scale, Scale... ..................................................................................................................... 3-10 Competitive Dynamics — Is it All about Price? Not Quite, but Close........................................... 3-11 Competition Will Be Fierce — Revenue Growth will be Easier to Nab than Profits....................... 3-11 Thoughts on New Retailing Concepts ........................................................................................... 3-12 And the Winners Will Be Determined by. .................................................................................. 3-12 The Wal-Marting of the Web? ...................................................................................................... 3-13 Lessons from the History of Mail Order in the 1980s — Though Opportunities Were Significant, Expectations Got Out of Control, and Too Many Players Spoiled a Lot of the Fun, Profits.... 3-15 u Chapter 4: Potential Size of the Internet Retail Market The Size of the Internet Retail Market — Pick a Number. ............................................................4-2 Four Approaches to Sizing the Internet Retail Market.....................................................................4-2 The Backup on Retail Market Statistics ..........................................................................................4-3 u Chapter 5: Where Do Users Spend Their Time Online? Where Do Users Spend Their Time Online? ...................................................................................5-1 This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. and others associated with it may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. MORGAN STANLEY Table of Contents (continued) Shopping Use Is Rising Steadily on the Web...................................................................................5-2 User Buying Habits.........................................................................................................................5-5 u Chapter 6: The Latest and Greatest from Some of the Hottest Web Retailing Brands A Quick Look at Some Cutting-Edge Web-Based Retailers.............................................................6-3 u Chapter 7: For Shoppers, the Web Offers Niche and Mass Markets, and Unique Ways to Find Products Quickly Descriptions of Those Crafty Web Techniques Designed to Get Shoppers to Spend Money… .........7-1 An Example of “Yellow Pages” ......................................................................................................7-3 An Example of Special Interest Links.............................................................................................7-4 An Example of Agenting Technology .............................................................................................7-6 u Chapter 8: Look at an Emerging Web Retailing Market — Book Selling — Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble A Brief History of Amazon.com......................................................................................................8-2 Books Are Well Suited for Online Sale...........................................................................................8-2 The Web Offers Retailers Key Abilities...........................................................................................8-3 Market Opportunity for Book Selling on the Internet ......................................................................8-3 Amazon.com: The Pioneer in Internet Book Selling........................................................................8-5 Amazon.com’s Competitive Advantages and Investment Positives..................................................8-5 Investment Risks ............................................................................................................................8-9 A Look at Amazon’s Financial and Operating Statistics and Dynamics ........................................ 8-13 Barnes & Noble: Extending its Retail Franchise to the Web......................................................... 8-14 Just Getting Started ......................................................................................................................8-14 Competitive Advantages on the Web............................................................................................. 8-14 Lowest Cost Distribution = Pricing Flexibility + Market Share + Profitability............................... 8-15 Strong Brand Equity.....................................................................................................................8-15 Strategic Alliances Building ........................................................................................................