Establishing the New International Normal for Economic Growth in China and the World: The Imperative for Sustainable Global Development The 2016 North America Conference of the Chinese Economist Society (CES) April 2-3, 2016 Sacramento, California, USA Organiser: The Chinese Economist Society Co-Sponsors • Office of the Provost, University of California, Davis • Office of the Provost, California State University, Sacramento • Office of the Dean of Social Sciences & Interdisciplinary Studies, California State University, Sacramento • Office of the Dean of Social Sciences, University of California, Davis • Department of Economics, University of California, Davis • Migration Center, University of California, Davis • Institute for Social Sciences, University of California, Davis CONFERENCE PROGRAM April 2 (SATURDAY) 9:00 a.m. – 11:45 a.m.: Plenary Sessions Welcoming Remarks: • Robert Nelsen, President, California State University, Sacramento • List of OTHER dignitaries who will speak Plenary Sessions • 1st speaker: Robert Feenstra, University of California, Davis (COFFEE BREAK) • 2nd speaker: Avner Greif, Stanford University 1 11:45 a.m. – 1:15 pm: Lunch 1:20 p.m. – 5:40 p.m.: PARALLEL SESSIONS Time Allocation for Parallel Sessions • Each presenter will speak for 16 minutes in sessions with four papers, and for 20 minutes in sessions with three papers • Rest of time will be open discussion 1:20 p.m. - 2:40 p.m.: Parallel Sessions Session 1 - 1: Growth and Development 1: Institutional & Demographic Factors Venue: TBA Chair: Lu Ding 1. Dual Track System in China's Transition. Tang Rongsheng, Washington University, [email protected] 2. The Utilization Rate of Demographic Dividend. Yang Fan, Central University of Finance and Economics, [email protected] 3. Demographics and Firm Returns: Empirical Evidence from a Population Policy Change in China. An Zhiyong, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, [email protected] 4. China’s Growth Performance and Potentials in the Lens of the Unified Growth Theory. Lu Ding. University of the Fraser Valley, [email protected] Session 1 - 2: Industrial Organization I: Issues in Banking and Finance in China Venue: TBA Chair: TBA 1. Trust and the Geography of Online Trade: Evidence from China. Han Lihua, Northeastern University, [email protected] 2. On the Number and Size of Banks: Efficiency and Equilibrium. Huang Kui, University of Wisconsin-Madison, [email protected] 3. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Financial Industry Structure in China. Liu Guirong, East China University of Science and Technology and University of Michigan, China Data Center, [email protected] 4. Foreign Exchange Interventions, Capital Controls and Monetary Policy: The Case of China. Jin Hao. Indiana University, [email protected] 2 Session 1 - 3: Labor Economics I: Schooling and human capital in China Venue: TBA Chair: Yang Juan 1. The Returns to Schooling in Rural China: Evidence from the Cultural Revolution Education Expansion. Yang Juan, Beijing Normal University, [email protected] 2. How cohort size impacts education opportunity in China: crowding and selectivity . Liu Han, Rutgers University, [email protected] 3. How does the school starting age affect cognitive and non-cognitive skills? Xu Jianfeng, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, [email protected] 4. Chinese University Admission Mechanisms: Should We Defer Deferred Acceptance? Connie Wang, Walden University, [email protected] Session 1 - 4: Macroeconomic Management 1 Venue: TBA Chair: Li Linyue 1. Measuring the "World" Natural Rate of Interest. Ren Zhang, Southern Methodist University, [email protected] 2. In "New Normal" Research on the Transmission Mechanism and Policy Implications of China's Economy and World Business Cycle Synchronization. Li Linyue, Central University of Finance and Economics, [email protected] 3. Permanent Income and Subjective Well-Being. Cai Shu, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, [email protected] 4. The Role of Monetary Policy on Housing and Consumption, Pan Xuefeng, University of California Riverside, [email protected] Session 1 - 5: The Economic Analysis of Chinese Culture Venue: TBA Chair: Wu Jiabin 1. Who Should I Share Risk with? Gifts Can Tell: Theory and Evidence from Rural China. Wang Ruixi, Hong Kong Baptist University, [email protected] 2. How Does the Adolescent Experience Affect Subjective Well-being? A Study on the Send-Down Movement in China. He Chuan, University of California, Davis, [email protected] 3. An Evolutionary Foundation for Cultural Polarization. Wu Jiabin, University of Oregon, [email protected] 3 4. The Economic Motives of Foot-binding in Rural China: Evidence from Republican Government Archives in the 1930s. Wu Lingwei, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, [email protected] Session 1 – 6: Studies of the Chinese Consumer Venue: TBA Chair: TBA 1. Chinese Rural Consumers’ Online Shopping. Zhong Hua, University of Kentucky, [email protected] 2. Mass Media, Migration and Diffusion of Diet Knowledge. Hao Xu, University of Southampton, [email protected] 3. Health Status and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Chinese Households. Lin Tian, University of Birmingham, UK, [email protected] 2:40 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. : Coffee 3:00 p.m. - 4:20 p.m. Session 2 – 1: Computational and Behavioral Economics Venue: TBA Chair: Chen Shu-Heng 1. Has Homo Economicus Evolved into Homo Sapiens: What Does Corpus Linguistics Say? Zou Yawen, Arizona State University, [email protected] 2. In Synchrony with Market Organization: Coordination of Financial Intermediaries and Money Flows Matched in Time. Yang Chun-Yi, George Mason University, [email protected] 3. Sectoral Imbalance in Two-Sector Economy with Mobility Constraint and Firm Migration. Li Xi Hao, McMaster University, [email protected] 4. Heterogeneity in Generalized Reinforcement Learning and its Relation to Cognitive Ability. Chen Shu-Heng, National Chengchi University, [email protected] Session 2 - 2: Growth and Development 2: Regional and Overall Perspectives Venue: TBA Chair: Jack W. Hou 1. Comparative study on Chinese and western urbanization theory. Gao Xiaoyan, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, [email protected] 2. China's Efficient Urban Bias. Wang Xiaobing, University of Manchester, [email protected] 4 3. An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Firm Innovations and Regional Development in China. Jun Rao, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, [email protected] 4. Openness, Growth, and the Environment: Green GDP in China. Jack W. Hou. California State University, Long Beach [email protected] Session 2 – 3: Industrial Organization II: Reform and Governance of Chinese Firms Venue: TBA Chair: Ling Leng 1. Effect of Managerial Links on Firm Performance and Governance: Evidence from China. Liu Yu, University of Texas at El Paso [email protected] 2. Regional Disparity of State-Owned Enterprise Reform and Regional Income Inequality in China: How the Size of State Sector Affects the Individual Income in a Region? Xie Bin, Rutgers University, [email protected] 3. Political Connections, Overinvestments and Firm Performance: Evidence from Chinese Listed Real Estate Firms. Ling Leng, Georgia College & State University, [email protected] 4. Roads to Innovations: Firm-Level Evidence from China. Wang Xu, Brandeis University and Peking University, [email protected] Session 2 - 4: Labor Economics II: Special Topics Venue: TBA Chair: Örn B. Bodvarsson 1. The Shrinking Middle Class: Impact of Globalization on Skill Premium and Inequality with Endogenous Skill Acquisition. Xu Mingzhi, UC Davis, [email protected] 2. Tax-induced Interstate Migration. Li Zhihui, Beijing University, [email protected] 3. The Dynamics of Production Fragmentation and Human Capital Accumulation. Wang Xin, University of Colorado Boulder, [email protected] 4. Off-farm Employment and Insecticide Use. Chen Yishan, College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, [email protected] Session 2 – 5: Macroeconomic Management II Venue: TBA Chair: TBA 5 1. Central Bank Policy Responses to Volatile Capital Flows. Zhang Boyang. Cornell University, [email protected] 2. Influence of International Technology Transfer (ITT) on Innovative Performance of Chinese Economy: A Soft Model. Roszkowska Dorota, Univeristy of Bialystok, [email protected] 3. Consumption Habits, Growth Acceleration and Capital Flows. Wang Boqun, Johns Hopkins University, [email protected] 4. Financing Frictions in Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia, Ding Ziran. University of Washington, [email protected] Session 2 – 6: The Economic Effects of Trade Venue: TBA Chair: TBA 1. Trade Liberalisation, Labour Market Reform and Firm-level Employment Adjustment. Wang Feicheng, University of Nottingham Ningbo, [email protected] 2. Export Spillover and Destination Choice. Wu Haoyu, Clark University, [email protected] 3. Spillover effect of foreign direct investment: Identification from borders of Chinese dialect zones. Ma Sen, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, [email protected] 4:20 p.m. - 5:40 p.m. PARALLEL SESSION Session 3 – 1: Industrial Organization III: Chinese Industry Studies Venue: TBA Chair: Song Shunfeng 1. Destination Institution, Firm Heterogeneity and Exporter Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from the Chinese Firm-Level Data. Hu Chenghao, University of California, Davis. [email protected] 2. Transportation Infrastructure, Spatial Distribution of Industries and