REGULAR ISSUE Roger Revelle Commemorative Lecture Contemplating Action: Storing Carbon Dioxide in the Ocean Peter G. Brewer Monterey Bay Aqzlarium Research Institute (MBARI) Moss Landing, California USA Introduction by D. James Baker Today's talk is focused on the practical applica- tion of ocean science to a major problem. Therefore I appreciate the opportunity to say a few words I would like to speak to the other side of Roger about Roger Revelle and to introduce Peter Brewer. Revelle--his interest in the practical aspects of The title of my short introduction today is "Flying science applied to the developing world. In 1978, he Beans, Jack and the Beanstalk, Botanical Whales, published an important, but much lesser known and Coral Reefs." And it is all completely relevant to work, on underexploited tropical plants in the the subject at hand. But let me begin by saying that Annual Report of the National Research Council: I knew and worked with Roger and I know and am "Flying Beans, Jack and the Beanstalk, and a colleague of Peter. Their work in that most inte- Botanical Whales." grating of fields, ocean chemistry, spans contempo- This paper was a far cry from calcium carbonate, rary earth science, and it is fitting to honor both dur- but equally important to the world. Flying beans ing this National Chemistry Week. And also to have produce edible green pods in two months and this talk here at the National Academy of Sciences. beans after four months; yields are as large as soy- Roger was a force in the predecessor committee of beans, and the crop could rival soybeans. Rapidly today's Ocean Studies Board, and Peter has been a growing trees, such as the Leucaena, can grow to a two term member and a major contributor. height of nine meters in two years, twenty meters in Roger Revelle's accomplishments are legendary ill six to eight years. Annual growths can be twelve to earth sciences, and he had a huge effect on applica- fifty tons per hectare: as close as a living plant can tion of science to practical problems, from energy come to the beanstalk that Jack climbed. Botanical policy to feeding the world's growing population. whales refers to jojoba: a slate green twiggy stunted I've had the privilege of seeing oceanography from shrub. Half the weight of the nut is a yellowish, the academic world and the government policy odorless polyunsaturated liquid wax, much like world, and 1 appreciate Roger's influence and sperm oil. At the time Revelle wrote this, 20,000 breadth more because of that dual view. Peter's talk sperm whales were being killed per year for their today illustrates his considerable and ongoing influ- oil. Commercial whaling has stopped, but the ence on both the science and policy world. search for oil substitutes continues. Roger Revelle published his first paper in 1934, Roger served two institutions: Scripps Institution more than 65 years ago, on the subject of calcium of Oceanography, and Harvard University, and he carbonate in sea water a beginning to his long inter- spent two years in Washington advising the ests in carbon in the sea and in the atmosphere. This Secretary of the Interior. He kept these dual, paral- first work led to the wellknown developments of lel and coPmected tracks active until he died, exem- measurement and impacts of increasing carbon plifying the true renaissance man. dioxide in the atmosphere and all the discussions of Well, our speaker was not publishing papers in global warming. 1934. But ,aTe can ask what was he doing in 1978, 84 Oceanography • VoL 13 • No. 2/2000 while Roger Revelle was talking about botanical finally to the topic of coral reefs. I just returned marvels? Peter Brewer was in fact demonstrating from the U.S. Virgin Islands where we had the third the breadth of his interests with three published meeting of the U.S. Task Force on Coral Reefs, papers that year: with Mary Scranton on appointed by the President as a result of last year's "Consumption of dissolved methane in the deep National Ocean Conference. At the meeting, carbon ocean," with Mike Bacon and Derek Spencer on sequestration was noted as a critical topic for the "Lead 210 and Polonium 210 as marine geochemi- world. The question was raised what will happen to cal tracers: review and discussion of some recent the coral reefs if CO2 is pumped into the ocean for results from the Labrador Sea," and by himself on storage? I thought: this is a good question for Peter "Direct Observation of the oceanic CO, increase." Brewer, and is just one of the many issues that relate Peter's accomplishments are demonstrated by that to today's subject. year of papers, which show how he goes about Active intervention in a natural system for the extracting the oceanic signals of global change, and good of mankind is the overarching theme. In his developing novel techniques for measurement. book The New WoHd of the Ocean, Daniel Behrman Peter Brewer also has served two institutions: says that "More than any single figure, Roger Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the Revelle is responsible for the introduction of Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. And, oceanography into public affairs." Peter Brewer like Roger, he spent two years in Washington. He continues that theme. has shown a deep interest in ship design and insti- It is my pleasure to introduce a great ocean tution building, and has been successful at both. chemist, Dr. Peter Brewer. And finally, like Roger, Peter has also shown an interest in the practical solution of global problems. - Introduction for First Annual Roger Revelle Just as Roger Revelle looked at new agricultural Lecture by Dr. Peter Brewer practices and explored the environmental conse- November 9, 1999 quences of growing new kinds of plants, Peter National Academy of Sciences Brewer is looking at new ways to deal with CO~ and the environmental consequences. D. James Baker • Under Secretary of Commercefor As a consequence of human activity, atmospher- Oceans and Atmosphere ic carbon dioxide is steadily growing. Can this Administrator of the National Oceanic and increase be stored in the ocean? This brings me Atmospheric Administration Introduction It is a great pleasure to give this, the first Revelle But all experiments are expected to have a result, and it Commemorative Lecture, for [ had the privilege both to may be supposed that we have reached one today. The know Roger over the last decade of his career, and to temperature signal is only just emerging from the noise, work on problems in whicln he was keenly interested. and its trajectory is still uncertain. But within the last Roger of course did not personally establish that carbon few years an enormous international debate has taken dioxide was increasing in the atmosphere; that was rec- place, with the conclusion by the Intergovernmental ognized much earlier in the centurv (1). But his passion Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that "the balance of for this problem, and his leadership (2), his uncovering evidence suggests a discernible human influence on cli- of what we now call the "Revelle Factor" for carbon mate" (4). And we have the announcement of a goal by dioxide buffering of the ocean, and his hiring of Dave the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Keeling at Scripps during the IGY vears to make the (UNFCCC) to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas first wonderful series of atmospheric measurements, concentrations ... at a level that would prevent danger- are surely the basis for the world wide interest today. ous anthropogenic interference with the climate sys- Roger also wrote one of the first papers on gas hydrates tem." One recent example (5) of the present rapid in the oceans, and introduced me to the subject. These change in northern hemisphere temperatures is shown amazing compounds will make their appearance in the in Figure 1. The question now shifts to what we are lecture I give today. going to do about it. And the role that active interven- The end of the experiment? It is now 42 },ears since tion, through carbon sequestration in the ocean, may Revelle and Suess wrote their seminal paper (3) with play in achieving this goal is the focus of this lecture. the now legendary phrase "human beings are now car- This was recently recommended by the Presidentis rying out a large scale geophysical experiment" that so Council of Advisors on Science and Technology captured the imagination of large numbers of scientists. (PCAST), and must be taken as a serious question. But Oceanography • VoL 13 • No. 2/2000 85 is this even possible? What is the underlying science? Usual" scenario if atmospheric stabilization at about And where do we go from here? 550 p.p.m.v. (about twice the pre-industrial level) is to It is of course deliberately provocative to suggest be achieved. The numbers are strikingly large; about 1 this. For four decades the scientific response has been to GtC/year by 2025, and about 4 GtC/year by 2050 are measure, to model, to uncover quite beautifully the required by the efforts of all nations if the 550 p.p.m.v. powerful fluctuations of greenhouse gases and climate target is to be adopted. in the Earth's past, and to issue warnings both sober These are prodigious quantities. To put these num- and dire about the future. This work will continue, and bers in perspective recall that 1 GtC/year was approxi- we may expect the continued evolution of elegant mod- mately the entire world carbon dioxide output in about els, and the establishment of monitoring networks and 1932, and 4 GtC/year the output of the world in about stations of increasing sophistication as the march of our 1967.