WILL WE STAY OR WILL WE GO NOW? 2 | WILL WE STAY OR WILL WE GO NOW? WILL WE STAY OR WILL WE GO NOW? Will the UK leave the EU? Our view is that it is unlikely, albeit not impossible. We caveat this by noting that our job is not to predict, but to prepare our clients for feasible scenarios. But no report on the referendum worth its salt could avoid offering a view, and this is ours. The fundamentals favour Remain. Polling, for what it is worth, seems better off in” is clear, simple and will strike a chord with those to indicate that the race is tight, but there is a large group of who worry about whether ditching the status quo could be risky. undecideds. We believe they are most likely to fall into the Remain camp when it comes to the crunch. Here is why: 6 The out camp has no similar clarity, and is unlikely to achieve it in the next four months. Leavers are riven between two world 1 The British public remains a largely cautious, pragmatic, and views. Firstly, those who see Brexit as an opportunity to create a small-c conservative entity. May 2015 was a useful reminder of Singapore style, hyper globalised liberal modern economy. this. Voting to leave requires a significant desire to depart from Secondly, those for whom it is a chance to crack down on a known, lived, reality and embrace a wide range of immigration and recapture Britain’s self-rule and sovereignty. uncertainties. Many who would regard themselves as Remain does not need to define its future, for we currently live Eurosceptics will nonetheless step back from the brink of it every day. Leave must define what leave looks like. Few uncertainty when the vote comes. undecideds will opt for an option whose own protagonists cannot agree what it means. It’s best line – Vote Leave, Take 2 David Cameron is the most trusted politician in Britain today. He Control, resonates best only with those who think and care will spend much of the next four months vigorously making the about matters of sovereignty – a minority of the public. case for Remain, as will the formidable SNP machine, and a Labour party led in this instance by the popular Alan Johnson, 7 Success for Leavers depends on being able to persuade the with Gordon Brown in a supporting role. electorate that a) we cannot at present achieve an adequate settlement from Brussels, and b) in the event of Brexit, we will 3 Lined up behind them will be a great deal of the British get the trade agreements that we need from Brussels with establishment. It has become fashionable to argue that the UK minimal fuss. The Remain camp will press at this problematic and western world is experiencing a revolt against contradiction at every opportunity. establishment elites. Corbynism, UKIP’s significant vote share in 2015, and the rise of Sanders & Trump across the pond are cited 8 At present there is a gulf in professionalism between the in support. We remain unconvinced that this really translates to Remain camp and the Leave camp. Based on our experience of a national scale in Britain. Many undecided voters will listen to signing up as volunteers for the campaigns on both sides, those who keep us safe, provide employment, run our banks Remain is doing a far better job of basic campaign organisation. (however badly...) and organise charitable endeavours. Our suspicion (and it is just that) is that those who are instinctively 9 Finally, we believe the Scottish referendum is instructive. It was anti-establishment are most likely already in the ‘Leave’ camp, an extraordinary political event that generated huge passions rather than undecided. and intense engagement from previously non-political members of the public. But even with huge passion, dedication, 4 Compared to Remain, the Leave camp is for the most part a and one of the most formidable party machine’s in living group of unpopular and unknown individuals. Nigel Farage memory, the SNP lost by a solid margin. It is hard to persuade inspires some but repels more. Michael Gove is an intellectual the British people to abandon the status quo. We believe it heavyweight, but is perhaps best known for being widely unlikely that Britain will vote for a major change on an issue loathed. Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Kate Hoey et al are that (outside of a vocal and principled minority) arouses neither not figures with the charisma or profile to persuade and convert passion nor interest for most. in large numbers. The caveat to this argument is of course that the country’s most popular (if not most respected) politician, 10 In referendums the electorate tends to veer back towards the Boris Johnson, is for Leave. status quo as the vote draws closer, and caution really kicks in. To be really confident of Brexit, leave would need to be in a 5 Remain has a clear and resonant message that we will hear solid leading position right now. It is not, and it has a mountain again and again and again until polling day. “Stronger in, safer in, to climb. WILL WE STAY OR WILL WE GO NOW? | 3 Could we be wrong? Quite possibly. Some factors certainly point in work benefits for newly arrived EU workers for up to 4 years. This Leave’s favour. Cameron’s renegotiation patently delivered relatively ‘emergency brake’ will operate for 7 years. little, and certainly does not amount to any fundamental reshaping • Child benefit payments to families living outside the UK will be of our relationship with the EU. Boris Johnson, the most popular paid at a rate reflecting local conditions and not simply the UK politician in the country, supports Brexit, and could be worth a rate of support. couple of percent to Leave. There may be developments with the Greek economy, the refugee crisis, or a ‘black swan’ event in the The full content of the UK’s negotiated settlement can be found coming months, that pushes the electorate towards Leave. here. It is this deal that will be voted on, via referendum, on the 23rd June 2016. With both outcomes still in play, we hope that this short report helps you to understand what to expect over the coming months. TIMELINE WHAT HAS BEEN AGREED? Now the deal is done, what happens next? The Prime Minister kicked off our EU referendum after reaching agreement with other European heads of state on anew ‘ 4th March settlement’ for the UK. The campaign ‘designation’ period, in which the Electoral Commission decides which organisations can be designated as Despite scepticism about the deal, the government claims that it the official Leave and Remain campaigns starts. The decision is cements the UK’s “special status” in the EU. The negotiated deal important as the official campaigns can spend more, have covers four key areas, as follows. campaign broadcasts, free mailing and other benefits. The Remain and Leave camps have 28 days to apply. The Electoral Economic governance Commission then has up to 14 days to decide who to Cameron had sought guarantees that the UK will not be designate as the official campaigns. discriminated against as a non-Eurozone member. As well as a 15th April commitment that UK businesses in the single market will not be The official referendum period of ten weeks begins. subject to any discriminatory treatment, it was agreed that: • The Bank of England and other UK authorities will retain 5th May responsibility for UK financial stability. Elections will be held for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh • UK taxpayers will not have to foot the bill for Eurozone bailouts. Assembly, London Mayoralty, and for some local councils in England. Competitiveness 27th May Cameron has claimed success in reaching agreement to reduce both Purdah kicks in 28 days before the vote. The government had barriers to trade, and business regulation. It claims victory in having tried to lift purdah restrictions, but backed down amidst agreed that targets will be set for reducing red tape in key sectors; concern amongst Brexiteers. securing a commitment to extend the single market in services, energy and digital; and agreement that the EU will pursue free trade 23rd June agreements with the world’s most dynamic economies. Polling day. British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens who are resident in the UK, and UK nationals who have been residents Sovereignty abroad for less than 15 years are eligible to vote. It will now be formally recognised that the EU’s aim of “ever closer union” does not apply to the UK, and the UK is not committed to further political integration. Moreover, the government claims, THE CAMPAIGNS national security issues will remain the “sole responsibility” of the The lead-up to the referendum has seen the establishment of UK, and we will decide on a case by case basis whether to cooperate campaign groups building the case for both Remain and Leave. with European partners. Over the next few months, these groups will be at the heart of the debate over whether the UK should stay in or head out of the EU. Welfare and free movement This aspect of the agreement seeks to tackle the political sensitive Remain: Britain Stronger in Europe and emotive issues around EU migrant access to UK benefits. The There is a single campaign group on the Remain side: Britain government secured agreement that: Stronger In Europe. The group launched in October 2015, has cross- • The UK will have an ‘emergency brake’ limiting full access to in- party support, is well funded and professionally staffed.