NAVIGATING THE ROADMAP FOR CLEAN , SECURE AND EFFICIENT ENERGY INNOVATION Case study on Projects of Common Interest and gas producers pricing strategy Author(s): Peter Kotek (REKK ) Borbála Takácsné Tóth (REKK) Pedro Crespo del Granado (NTNU) Ruud Egging (NTNU) Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin) Aurora del Valle Díez (Comillas) 02 / 2018 A report compiled within the H2020 project SET-Nav (work package 6, D6.6) www.set-nav.eu Project Coordinator: Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien) Work Package Coordinator: Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas) The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 691843 (SET-Nav). Projects of Common Interest and Gas Producers Pricing Strategy Project coordinator: Gustav Resch Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives, Energy Economics Group (EEG) Address: Gusshausstrasse 25/370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria Phone: +43 1 58801 370354 Fax: +43 1 58801 370397 Email: [email protected] Web: www.eeg.tuwien.ac.at Dissemination leader: Prof. John Psarras, Haris Doukas (Project Web) National Technical University of Athens (NTUA-EPU) Address: 9, Iroon Polytechniou str., 15780, Zografou, Athens, Greece Phone: +30 210 7722083 Fax: +30 210 7723550 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.epu.ntua.gr Lead author of this report: Peter Kotek REKK Address: Keserűfű utca 3, 2030 Érd, Hungary Phone:+36 1 482 5153 Email: [email protected] Web: www.rekk.hu Projects of Common Interest and Gas Producers Pricing Strategy TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Goal of the case study ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Background ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 3 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2 3.1 Modelling tools used for evaluation ............................................................................................................. 2 3.1.1 RAMONA ................................................................................................................................................... 2 3.1.2 EGMM......................................................................................................................................................... 2 3.1.3 WGMM ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 3.1.4 GGM ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 3.2 Harmonization of input data set for the gas models .............................................................................. 5 3.3 CBA methodology and comparison of models used.............................................................................. 6 4 Results ................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Results of RAMONA ............................................................................................................................................. 9 4.2 Results of EGMM and WGMM ....................................................................................................................... 11 4.3 Results of GGM ................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.4 Comparison of modelling results ................................................................................................................ 22 5 Strategic behaviour assessment with EGMM ...................................................................................................... 24 6 Policy recommendations ............................................................................................................................................ 25 7 Annex 1: Methodology for selecting the shortlist of PCIs to be analysed ................................................ 27 8 Annex 2: Estimating investment cost of pipelines ............................................................................................ 37 9 Annex 3: Comparing the spatial representation of GGM, EGMM and RAMONA.................................... 39 9.1 Nodes represented in the models .............................................................................................................. 39 9.2 Interconnectors represented in the models ........................................................................................... 40 10 Annex 4: List of abbreviations ................................................................................................................................... 45 Projects of Common Interest and Gas Producers Pricing Strategy LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Comparison of the gas models used ...................................................................................................................... 8 Table 2. RAMONA decisions on the PCI list ....................................................................................................................... 10 Table 3. Results of EGMM modelling in reference, Mn EUR ........................................................................................ 12 Table 4. Results of WGMM modelling .................................................................................................................................. 13 Table 5. PCI projects - aggregate endogenous expansions 2015-2050 in both scenarios. ............................. 15 Table 6. Non-PCI projects: aggregate endogenous expansions 2015-2050 (in TWh/y). .................................. 18 Table 7. Aggregate EU28 discounted social welfare impact – Mn EUR (2015). ................................................... 19 Table 8. PCI projects - summarized results ........................................................................................................................ 20 Table 9. Comparison of modelling results ......................................................................................................................... 22 Table 10. Modelled optimal choice of spot gas pricing in EGMM, change of spot price compared to reference case, EUR/MWh ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Table 11. Modelled profit level of major gas suppliers to Europe in EGMM for 2030, Bn EUR/year (2030 EUR) .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Table 12. Modelled consumer surplus and total welfare change in EGMM for 2030, Mn EUR/year (2030 EUR) .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Table 13. Number of PCIs by Priority Corridor in the 2015 PCI list and number of shortlisted projects for analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Table 14. Shortlist of PCIs to be evaluated ........................................................................................................................ 29 Table 15. Detailed list of natural gas PCIs and reasoning for omission from analysis ....................................... 30 Table 16. 2015 benchmark indexed unit investment cost of transmission pipelines (average values) ..... 37 Table 17. 2015 benchmark indexed unit investment cost of compressor stations (average values) .......... 37 Table 18. 2015 benchmark indexed unit investment cost of LNG regasification terminals (avg. values) . 37 Table 19. Basic technical parameters and estimated investment cost of infrastructure projects ................ 38 Table 20. Country nodes included in the models ........................................................................................................... 39 Table 21. Interconnectors represented in the models used ....................................................................................... 41 Projects of Common Interest and Gas Producers Pricing Strategy LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. PCI projects selected for the study........................................................................................................................ 5 Figure 2. RAMONA decisions on the PCI list ......................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3. Network representation of EGMM ..................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 4. Network representation of GGM........................................................................................................................