International Futures (IFs) Training Manual Frederick S. Pardee Center for IFs Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver www.ifs.du.edu | www.ifsforums.du.edu Contact: [email protected] This manual was written by the following: Barry B Hughes Mohammod T Irfan Eli Margolese -Malin Jonathan D Moyer Carey Neill José Sol órzano Table of Contents 1 General Overview ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Introduction to IFs ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 What IFs Can Do ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 The Structure of IFs ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 IFs Philosophy ................................................................................................................................ 9 2.4 IFs Vocabulary ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.5 Geographic Representation in IFs ............................................................................................... 11 2.6 Key Features of IFs ...................................................................................................................... 12 3 Introduction to Forecasting ............................................................................................................ 14 3.1 Objectives .................................................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Stocks and Flows ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Potential Training Topics ............................................................................................................. 16 4 Historical Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 18 4.1 World Map .................................................................................................................................. 19 4.2 World Map Movie ....................................................................................................................... 20 4.3 Analyze Across Countries (Cross-Sectional)................................................................................. 22 4.4 Introducing Time in Cross-Sectional Analysis .............................................................................. 25 4.5 Analyze Across Time (Longitudinal) ............................................................................................ 26 5 Display Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 32 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2 Flexible Displays .......................................................................................................................... 33 5.3 Graphical Forms .......................................................................................................................... 38 5.3.1 Line and Bar Charts .................................................................................................................. 38 5.3.2 Radial Diagrams ....................................................................................................................... 40 5.3.3 Scatterplots .............................................................................................................................. 42 5.4 Geographically-fixed Displays ..................................................................................................... 43 5.5 Basic Report For Countries/Regions ............................................................................................ 45 5.6 Specialized Displays ..................................................................................................................... 46 5.6.1 Specialized Displays: Population .............................................................................................. 47 5.6.2 Specialized Displays: Education Cohorts .................................................................................. 50 5.6.3 Specialized Displays: Health ..................................................................................................... 52 Documentation_IFs Training Manual_v10.2.docx 5.6.4 Specialized Displays: Millennium Development Goals ............................................................ 54 5.6.5 Specialized Displays: Performance Risk Evaluation ................................................................. 55 5.6.6 Specialized Displays: Development Profile .............................................................................. 56 5.7 Self-Managed Display (Complete Flexibility) .............................................................................. 57 5.8 Understanding the Model ........................................................................................................... 59 6 Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 63 6.1 Understanding Scenario Building and Use in IFs ......................................................................... 64 6.2 Quick Scenario Analysis With Tree .............................................................................................. 65 6.2.1 Basic Scenario Creation ............................................................................................................ 67 6.2.2 Advanced Scenario Creation .................................................................................................... 73 6.3 Change Selected Functions.......................................................................................................... 77 6.4 Guided Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................ 78 6.5 Run .............................................................................................................................................. 79 6.6 File Management ........................................................................................................................ 80 7 Extended Features .......................................................................................................................... 81 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 81 7.2 Manage Country Data ................................................................................................................. 82 7.3 Manage Groups/Countries/Regions ........................................................................................... 83 7.4 Show Computed Functions .......................................................................................................... 85 7.5 Rebuild the Model Base .............................................................................................................. 86 7.6 Rebuild the Historical Base.......................................................................................................... 87 8 The File System ............................................................................................................................... 88 8.1 Root Folder (IFs) .......................................................................................................................... 88 8.2 DATA Folder ................................................................................................................................ 89 8.3 RUNFILES Folder .......................................................................................................................... 90 8.4 Scenario Folder ............................................................................................................................ 91 8.5 Code Folder ................................................................................................................................. 91 Documentation_IFs Training Manual_v10.2.docx 1 General Overview International Futures (IFs) is a long-term integrated global forecasting system, designed to facilitate the exploration of global futures. The IFs system allows users to analyze trends and interactions within and across agricultural, demographic, economic, educational, energy, environmental, health, infrastructure, and socio- political subsystems, in 186 interacting countries. Users can simulate potential paths of human development by making interventions that will affect, and even potentially reshape, the entire dynamic system. This training manual employs a problem-based pedagogical approach that emphasizes the functional utility of IFs for exploring and understanding human development challenges. Each section introduces IFs graphical user interface elements and then proceeds through demonstrations. In addition to examples that touch on a variety of themes, an investigation