Retail Change: a consideratici! of the UK food retail industry, 1950-2010. © Roger Clough 2002 Ph.D Middlesex University Abstract The immense changes to have taken place in UK food retailing during the second half of the 20th ccntury are detailed, explained and analysed, with constant référence to théories of retail change. The resuit is not just a history of UK food retail change post-1950, but a comprehensive évaluation and extension of retail change theory, with new driving forces and ideas elaborated, and a forecast of likely key developments to 2010. The thesis is based largely on the testimonies of key industry actors of the period, including past and présent executives of leading food retali organisations, and followed an un-structured interview approach, allowing stories to be told without unnecessary constraint. The development of the industry is detailed and explained, drawing heavily on thèse testìmonies, and this change is explained with référence to major factors with a direct hearing on the industry, such as government policy and socio-economie change. Because of the emphasis on witness accounts, the théories of retail change are analysed with a heavy focus on the people driving change, a refreshing change in a field where the historical nature of the subject tends to drive research towards secondary sources of data. The thesis contributes a better understanding of the forces driving the théories of retail change, and proposes an extension to the domain of application. The relevant éléments of the théories of retail change are implemented to forecast likely developments in the UK food retail industry to 2010, which is complemented by an 'expert' Delphi forecast and a projection of current socio-economie trends. Retail Change: a considération of the UK food retail industrv, 1950-2010, © Roger Clough, 2001. Acknowledgements. p.l Chapter One. Introduction. Aims and Objectives p.2 1.1 Introduction to change and general background. p.2 1.2 Introduction to thesis. p.5 1.3 Identification of the main issues. p.8 1.4 Aims and objectives. p.9 Chapter Two. Interagire Review p.ll 2.1 An explanation of the main théories of retail change, and review of the hterature pertaining to them. p.l 1 2.2 Review of the published literaturc on UK food retailing. p.67 Chapter Three. Aims and Methodology p.69 3.1 Methodology (including a discussion of 'theory'). p.69 Chapter Four. The Structure of the UK Food Retail Sector in the second half of the 20th Century. p.83 4.1 The rise of the multiple retail organisation. p. 84 4.2 The growth of the 'big five' and the changing power relationship. p.90 4.3 The évolution of the retail format. p.93 4.4 Geographical and product diversification. p. 100 4.5 The changing price/service relationship. p.107 Chapter Five. Major factors affecting the UK food retail system post-1950. p.113 5.1 Government Policy. 5.1 .i post-war shortages, rationing and the return to the free market. p.l 14 5.1 .ii resale price maintenance. p. 119 5.1 .iii planning restrictions. p. 123 5.1 .iv compétition policy. p. 129 5-l.v the deregulation of shopping hours. p. 132 5.1 .vi. miscellaneous government factors. p.139 5.2 Socio-economic Change. 5.2.Ì the growth of female employment. p. 144 5.2.Ü rising (and falling) consumer incomes. p.146 5.2.iii changing consumer tastes. p. 153 5.2.ÌV the consumer credit boom. p.155 5.3 Changes in Technology. 5.3.i consumer adoption of technology. p.158 5.3.ii retail technology. p.162 5.3.iii distribution technology. p. 169 5.3.ÌV the evolving supply chain p.173 5.4 Retailer Change. 5,4.i trading stamps. p. 176 5.4.Ü private label. p.180 5.4.iii customer loyalty schemes. p. 184 5.4.iv internationalisation. p.193 Chapter Six. Explanation of the changing UK food retail system and the impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on the food retail system. p.197 6.1 The domination of UK food retailing by multiple retail organisations. p. 197 6.2 The concentration of power into the 'big fi ve', and the impact on the relationship between retailers and manufacturers. p.207 6.3 The évolution of the retail format from counter-service grocery store through to the out-of-town superstore. p.217 6.4 UK food retailers' diversification of offering and geographical diversification. p.234 6.5 Forces driving the changing price/service relationship in UK food retailing. p.245 Table summarising areas covercd by interviewées (fig 6.5b) p.257 Chapter Seven. Evaluation and application of the théories of retail change p.258 7.1 Application of changes in UK food retailing since 1950 to models and théories of retail change. p.258 7.2 Tabular représentation of key findings of section 6.1 p.286 7.3 Application of théories in order to forecast. p.289 7.4 Results of the forecast. p.292 7.5 Implications and recommendations for the UK food retail industry. p.295 Chapter Eight. Forecast of hkcly developments in UK food retailing using the Delphi technique. p.299 8.1 Interpretation of the Delphi results. p.299 8.2 Implications of the Delphi forecast and recommendations for the UK food retail industry. p.305 8.3 Key éléments of the theory-based and expert-based forccasts. p.3Û9 Chapter Nine. Conclusion. p.312 9.1 Summary of likcly developments. p.312 9.2 Relationship of findings to the existing body of knowledge. p.316 9.3 Implications and recommendations for the UK food retail industry. p.317 9.4 Criticai évaluation of the validity of the existing body of retail change theory. p.321 9.5 Limitations of study p.323 9.6 Scope for future research p.323 Appendix One. Results of the Delphi forecast. p.i Appendix Two. Acquisition in the UK food retail industry. p.ix Appendix Three. Market research and site assessment techniques. p.x Appendix Four. Factors affecting the development of UK food superstores opening between 1986 and 1996. p.xiii Appendix Five. The Delphi forecasting technique. p.xix Appendix Six. Problems defining theory. p.xxii Appendix Seven. The Wheel of Retailing and less developed countries. p.xxvi Appendix Eight. Competitive reaction to low-overhead, low-price entrants is to take on their advantages. p.xxix Appendix Nine. Accélération of the Retail Life Cycle. p.xxxii Appendix Ten. The likely impact of future socio-economie and technological changes, p.xxxiv Bibliography. p.xliv Acknowledgements My sincere lhanks are due to many people, ali of whom have contributed to this thesis in their own way. I could not have written it without their help, and the help of many people is evident in the text, while others have played a background rôle of equal importance. First, my thanks go to my académie Supervisors, Professor David A. Kirby and Professor Peter Newby, who directed me to my goals, provided insight, comment and help. Jennifer J.Tanburn played an equally important role, and was an excellent source of information and contacts, and I thank her sincerely. John Poppleton also helped with contacts, which I appreciate very much. Van den Bergh Foods kindly sponsored the project financially, for which I am extremely grateful and thank fui. Industry insiders were also major contributors to this work, and to them I am particularly thankful. I took up their time interviewing, surveying, surveying again, and generally bothering them, and 1 was pleasantly surprised by their kind response, given that the majority of them are busy and important people with demanding schedules. Thank you ail very much, particularly those who took part in the interviews and Delphi forecasting. I spent a lot ottime in Hbraries, particularly in the initial stages. In particular 1 must thank the staff of Middlesex University library, the IGD information unit, Shirley in particular, London School of Economies library, and the British Library. Last, but by no means least, my thanks go out to my family, who have been very supportive. In particular, I would like to thank my wife, Lucy, for her support over the last four years, and apologise profusely for ali the boredom I have inflicted! You are the final person that 1 could not have done this without, thank you. 1 Chapter 1 Introduction, Airas and Objectives 1.1 Introduction to change, retail change and general background "One aspect that distinguishes the second half of the 20th century from its first half is the speed of change in the political, economical, social and technological arenas. During the first half of the century, things had changed and developed fairly slowly and steadily; yesterday was like tomorrow. In the second half of this century, however, a number of events have taken place unexpectedly and trends have shifted in dramatic fashion. " [Ono and Wedemeyer, 1994] It is widely accepted that the second half of the twentieth century has been a period of relentless and unprecedented change [Drucker, 1977, 1986; Ono and Wedemeyer, 1994; Peters, 1989]. Not since the industrial revolution has such dramatic and widespread change taken place [Drucker, 1977]. The rate of change slowed between the world wars of 1914 and 1939, the inter-war years being a period when existing technologies and industries were built upon rather than disappearing into the shadow of innovation [Drucker, 1977]. A factor attributed to the slowing of the rate of change during this period was the lack of industrialisation taking place around the world [Drucker, 1977].