MEASUREMENT OF FORECASTED, EXPERIENCED, AND REMEMBERED AFFECT IN A SUBSTANCE USE CONTEXT by Maya Annelies Pilin Hons. B.A., University of Ottawa, 2013 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES Psychological Science THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Okanagan) September 2019 © Maya Pilin, 2019 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, a thesis/dissertation entitled: Measurement of Forecasted, Experienced, and Remembered Affect in a Substance Use Context submitted by Maya A. Pilin in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Psychological Science Examining Committee: Dr. Marvin Krank Supervisor Dr. Paul Davies Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Maya Libben Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Sarah Dow-Fleisner External Examiner Dr. Robert Campbell Chair ii Abstract Individuals often overestimate the intensity and duration of the happiness they will feel after experiencing a positive event, such as receiving tenure. However, few studies have examined whether individuals will make affective forecasting errors in the context of alcohol and cannabis use. In the current study, we examined whether university students would make affective forecasting errors in a substance use context using experience sampling methodology. A sample of n = 46 university students made predictions about the intensity and duration of five emotions (happiness, relaxation, fun, sexiness, and excitement) that they may experience when using alcohol or cannabis, as well as completing a set of additional questionnaires regarding their substance use cognitions. When using alcohol or cannabis during the weekend, participants received questionnaires asking how intensely they were experiencing each of the five emotions. They were also asked the same questions one day after consuming and one week after. Growth curve models and Analyses of Variance demonstrated that while intensity emotions varied significantly over time, participants only overestimated how relaxed they would feel [F(1, 2.11) = 3.46, p < 0.05] and how much fun they would have consuming substances [F(1, 1) = 4.30, p = 0.05]. In conclusion, preliminary results demonstrate that individuals make relatively few affective forecasting errors in a substance use context, as opposed to other contexts in which such errors have previously been studied, although some errors do occur with particular emotions. Such findings may fit into the puzzle of explaining why maladaptive substance use habits continue despite seemingly negative consequences, such as hangovers. iii Lay Summary Individuals are sometimes inaccurate at predicting their emotions, often overestimating how happy positive events will make them feel. This study measures whether prediction errors occur when students consume alcohol or cannabis. Forty-six university students predicted how intensely and for how long they would feel five emotions, and then reported the intensity at which they were experiencing these emotions when consuming substances during the weekend. The following day and week, participants reported how intensely they had felt these emotions when consuming. Analyses showed that participants over-estimated how relaxed they would feel and how much fun they would have consuming substances. Moreover, participants who had large differences between their predictions of how sexy they would feel and how sexy they did feel when consuming were more likely to have alcohol use problems. Future studies should aim to determine why such errors occur and whether their correction will reduce substance use. iv Preface This research was conducted at the University of British Columbia (Okanagan) and supervised by Dr. Marvin Krank. For the present thesis, I was responsible for the original conception and design of the study, filing the research ethics application, the programming of the questionnaires, a portion of the data collection, all data preparation and analyses, and the writing of every section of the thesis. Prior to data collection, this study was reviewed and approved by the Behavioral Research Ethics Board of the University of British Columbia (Okanagan). The ethics file number for the current study is H13-02327. To date, the results of this study have not been published. v Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary ............................................................................................................................... iv Preface .............................................................................................................................................v Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................x Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................1 1.1. A Brief History of Affective Forecasting ....................................................................... 1 1.2. Cognitive Mechanisms of Affective Forecasting Errors ................................................ 4 1.3. Rosy Hindsight Bias ....................................................................................................... 9 1.4. Substance Use and Forecasting and Remembering Errors ........................................... 11 1.5. The Importance of Affective Forecasting Interventions in Substance Use...................12 1.6. Rationale for the Current Study.....................................................................................15 1.7. The Current Study..........................................................................................................16 Chapter 2: Methodology..............................................................................................................18 2.1 Participants .................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Measures ....................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.1. Substance use frequency questionnaires......................................................19 2.2.2. Word associates task....................................................................................19 vi 2.2.3. Outcome expectancy liking task..................................................................20 2.2.4. Substance use attitudes questionnaire..........................................................21 2.2.5. Measures of affective forecasting errors......................................................22 2.3. Procedure ...................................................................................................................... 23 2.4. Data Analysis Plan ........................................................................................................ 24 Chapter 3: Results........................................................................................................................29 3.1. Descriptive Statistics ..................................................................................................... 29 3.1.1. Forecasts......................................................................................................29 3.1.2. Experiences..................................................................................................29 3.1.3. Memories.....................................................................................................29 3.1.4. Cognitions....................................................................................................30 3.1.5. Substance Use..............................................................................................31 3.2. Comparisons Between Substances ................................................................................ 31 3.2.1. Forecasts......................................................................................................31 3.2.1.1. Levene's Tests...............................................................................31 3.2.1.2. Analyses of Variance....................................................................31 3.2.2. Experiences..................................................................................................32 3.2.2.1. Levene's Tests...............................................................................32 3.2.2.2. Analyses of Variance....................................................................32 3.2.3. Memories from the Previous Day................................................................32 3.2.3.1. Levene's Tests...............................................................................32