MERENKULKUALAN KOULUTUS- JA TUTKIMUSKESKUKSEN JULKAISUJA TURUN YLIOPISTON BRAHEA-KESKUS PUBLICATIONS OF THE CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES BRAHEA CENTRE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TURKU A 75 2018 BLUE GROWTH ─ DRIVERS AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE GULF OF FINLAND AND THE ARCHIPELAGO SEA Qualitative analysis based on expert opinions Riitta Pöntynen & Anne Erkkilä-Välimäki MERENKULKUALAN KOULUTUS- JA TUTKIMUSKESKUKSEN JULKAISUJA TURUN YLIOPISTON BRAHEA-KESKUS PUBLIKATIONER AV SJÖFARTSBRANSCHENS UTBILDNINGS- OCH FORSKNINGSCENTRAL BRAHEA CENTRUM VID ÅBO UNIVERSITET PUBLICATIONS OF THE CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES BRAHEA CENTRE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TURKU A 75 2018 BLUE GROWTH ─ DRIVERS AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE GULF OF FINLAND AND THE ARCHIPELAGO SEA Qualitative analysis based on expert opinions Riitta Pöntynen Anne Erkkilä-Välimäki Turku 2018 JULKAISIJA / PUBLISHER: Turun yliopiston Brahea-keskus / Brahea Centre at the University of Turku MERENKULKUALAN KOULUTUS- JA TUTKIMUSKESKUS CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES Käyntiosoite / Visiting address: ICT-City, Joukahaisenkatu 3-5 B, 5.krs, Turku Postiosoite / Postal address: FI-20014 TURUN YLIOPISTO Puh. / Tel. +358 (0)2 333 51 http://utu.fi/mkk Turku 2018 ISBN 978-951-29-7530-3 (Verkkojulkaisu) ISSN 2342–1437 (Verkkojulkaisu) SUMMARY The scenario-building process was part of the Plan4Blue project, in a work package called “Potential for Sustainable Blue Economies”. The approach consists of multiple alternative future visions. The Plan4Blue scenario process produced both qualitative and quantitative data. Expert views were included in the process from the Delphi studies, the Helsinki and Tallinn scenario workshops, as well as from expert interviews. This report describes the methods and results of the expert involvement in the scenario process, main drivers and the alternative Blue Growth scenarios for the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea. Economic and socioeconomic analyses as well as the mapping process have been reported in other publications of the Plan4Blue project. Acknowledgements The authors are thankful for INTERREG Central Baltic programme for co-funding the Plan4Blue project. The authors are thankful for Tua Nylén, Riku Varjopuro, Hanna Nieminen, Anu Lähteenmäki-Uutela, Tuomas Pohjola, Hanna Uusitalo, Merle Kuris, Anneliis Peterson, Harri Tolvanen, Leena Laamanen and Janne Törrönen for their contribution to the workshop arrangements and working group moderation. The authors are thankful for Lenita Nieminen, Annika Jaansoo and Merle Kuris for conducting the interviews, and Olena de Andres Gonzalez for her contribution to this publication. The authors are thankful for Merle Kuris and Annika Jaansoo for the Estonian translations of the on-line questionnaire and English translations of the open answers as well as the communication with the Estonian experts. The authors wish to thank Dimenteq Oy for the use and guidance of the HARAVA system and on-line questionnaire (eharava.fi). CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 9 2 SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS .................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Methods applied in the scenario building process .................................................................. 12 2.2 Identification of the blue economy sectors for the scenario process ..................................... 12 2.3 The selection of expert panel .................................................................................................. 14 2.4 First online questionnaire of the Delphi study ........................................................................ 15 2.5 First scenario workshop in Helsinki in June 2017 .................................................................... 17 2.6 Second online questionnaire of Delphi in 2018 ...................................................................... 18 2.7 Second scenario workshop in Tallinn ...................................................................................... 19 2.8 Business interviews related to specific issues discussed in workshops .................................. 22 2.9 Analysis and synthesis of the results of the scenario building process ................................... 23 2.10 Experts’ background ................................................................................................................ 26 The first phase of the scenario process in 2017 ................................................................. 26 The second phase of the scenario process in 2018 ............................................................ 28 Evaluation of the experts’ background in the scenario process ......................................... 29 3 GENERAL DRIVERS OF BLUE ECONOMY IN THE GULF OF FINLAND AND THE ARCHIPELAGO ........ 31 3.1 Political drivers ........................................................................................................................ 31 3.2 Economic drivers ..................................................................................................................... 33 3.3 Social drivers ........................................................................................................................... 34 3.4 Technological drivers ............................................................................................................... 35 3.5 Environmental drivers ............................................................................................................. 36 3.6 Legal drivers ............................................................................................................................ 37 4 THE DRIVERS AND ESTIMATED CHANGES OF the blue economy sectors ..................................... 40 4.1 Energy sector ........................................................................................................................... 40 Estimated changes by 2050 and impacts on sea use .......................................................... 40 Main drivers ........................................................................................................................ 43 4.2 Maritime cluster ...................................................................................................................... 49 Estimated changes and impact on sea use ......................................................................... 49 Main drivers ........................................................................................................................ 52 4.3 Blue bioeconomy and subsea resources ................................................................................. 59 Changes and impact on sea use.......................................................................................... 59 Main drivers ........................................................................................................................ 60 4.4 Tourism, culture, and services for leisure activities ................................................................ 66 Changes and impact on the sea use ................................................................................... 66 Main drivers ........................................................................................................................ 70 5 ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS AND RELATIONS OF THE DRIVERS .............................................. 76 6 ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR BLUE ECONOMY SECTORS ............................................. 79 6.1 General remarks regarding the building and contents of the scenarios ................................. 79 6.2 Energy sector ........................................................................................................................... 81 “Sustainability above all!” scenario on energy sector ........................................................ 81 “Unlimited growth” scenario on energy sector .................................................................. 83 “Sustainability dilemma” on energy sector ........................................................................ 84 “Virtual reality” scenario on energy sector ........................................................................ 84 Assessment of the alternative scenarios on energy sector ................................................ 85 6.3 Maritime cluster ...................................................................................................................... 89 "Sustainability above all" scenario ..................................................................................... 89 “Unlimited growth” scenario on maritime sector .............................................................. 89 “Sustainability dilemma” scenario on maritime sector ...................................................... 90 “Virtual reality” scenario on maritime sector ..................................................................... 91 Assessment of the alternative scenarios on maritime sector ............................................ 92 6.4 Blue bioeconomy and subsea resources ................................................................................. 94 “Sustainability above all" scenario in blue bioeconomy and subsea sector ....................... 94 “Unlimited growth” scenario on blue bioeconomy & subsea sector ................................. 95 “Sustainability dilemma” on blue bioeconomy & subsea