A Rail Investment Strategy for Gloucestershire March 2020 www.slcrail.com A Rail Strategy for Gloucestershire Contents Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 2 Table of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 6 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 The Brief .................................................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Document Structure................................................................................................................ 9 2. Current Travel Markets, Train Services and Accessibility ............................................................. 10 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Main Customer Markets ....................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Service Patterns .................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Usage ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Accessibility ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.6 Sustainability, Decarbonisation and the Climate Change Agenda ........................................ 17 2.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 18 3. Gloucestershire’s Development Proposals ................................................................................... 19 3.1 Population, Economy and Development .............................................................................. 19 3.2 Simplified SWOT Analysis ...................................................................................................... 20 3.3 GFirst LEP’s Perspective on Transport .................................................................................. 20 3.4 Housing ................................................................................................................................. 21 3.5 Transport Plan ....................................................................................................................... 22 4. Rail Industry Plans and Gap Analysis ............................................................................................ 24 4.1 Economic Value of Rail .......................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Rail Policy Context – Future Investment ............................................................................... 24 4.3 Identifying the Gaps to Support Gloucestershire’s Economy ............................................... 25 4.4 Connectivity Tests ................................................................................................................. 27 4.4.1 Corridor 1 - Bristol-Gloucestershire-Birmingham ......................................................... 27 4.4.2 Corridor 2 - South Wales-Gloucestershire-Birmingham ............................................... 28 4.4.3 Corridor 3 - South Cotswold Line – Gloucestershire-Swindon-London Paddington ..... 28 4.4.4 Corridor 4 - Sharpness and Severn Bridge .................................................................... 29 4.4.5 Corridor 5 - North Cotswold Line – Hereford-Worcester-Moreton-In-Marsh-Oxford- London Paddington ....................................................................................................................... 29 2 | P a g e A Rail Strategy for Gloucestershire 4.4.6 Corridor 6 - A46 Corridor East Midlands to South West Midlands ............................... 29 4.5 Potential Hub Interchange Locations .................................................................................... 30 5. Economic Testing of Connectivity Options - Methodology .......................................................... 32 5.1 Approach to Modelling ......................................................................................................... 32 5.2 Agglomeration Economies .................................................................................................... 32 5.3 The Modelling Work.............................................................................................................. 32 6. Birmingham-Bristol Corridors and Hub Interchanges ................................................................... 35 6.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 35 6.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 35 6.3 Hub Interchange Options ...................................................................................................... 37 6.4 Gloucester and Cheltenham – New Settlement ................................................................... 39 7. Birmingham-South Wales and Forest of Dean .............................................................................. 41 7.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 41 7.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 41 8. South Cotswold Line ..................................................................................................................... 43 8.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 43 8.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 43 8.3 Impact of Hub Interchanges .................................................................................................. 44 9. Sharpness and Severn Bridge ........................................................................................................ 47 9.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 47 9.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 47 10. North Cotswold Line ................................................................................................................. 50 10.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 50 10.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 50 11. A46 Corridor .............................................................................................................................. 52 11.1 Service Options ..................................................................................................................... 52 11.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 52 12. Summary and Prioritised Conditional Outputs ......................................................................... 54 12.1 Summary of GVA Analysis ..................................................................................................... 54 12.2 Emerging Themes .................................................................................................................. 54 12.3 Hub Interchange Stations – Emerging Themes ..................................................................... 55 12.4 Conditional Outputs .............................................................................................................. 58 13. Connecting Cheltenham Racecourse to the Mainline .............................................................. 59 3 | P a g e A Rail Strategy for Gloucestershire 13.1 Engineering Considerations .................................................................................................. 60 13.2 Railway/Train Operation Considerations .............................................................................. 61 13.2.1 Railway Capacity at Cheltenham Station ...................................................................... 62 13.3 Financial/Business Case Considerations ............................................................................... 62 13.3.1 Assumption on Passenger Income ................................................................................ 63 13.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 63 13.4.1 New Line .......................................................................................................................