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Oxford Brookes University. go/radar www.brookes.ac.uk/ Directorate of Learning Resources Between Informal and Formal Politics: Neopatrimonialism and Party Development in post-Soviet Kazakhstan Rico Isaacs Oxford Brookes University A Ph.D. thesis submitted to the School of Social Sciences and Law Oxford Brookes University, in partial fulfilment of the award of Doctor of Philosophy March 2009 98,218 Words Abstract This study is concerned with exploring the relationship between informal forms of political behaviour and relations and the development of formal institutions in post- Soviet Central Asian states as a way to explain the development of authoritarianism in the region. It moves the debate on from current scholarship which places primacy on either formal or informal politics in explaining modern political development in Central Asia, by examining the relationship between the two. It utilises Kazakhstan as a case study by assessing how the neopatrimonial system evident in the country has influenced and shaped the development of political parties. It investigates how personalism of political office, patronage and patron-client networks and factional elite conflict have influenced and shaped the institutional constraints affecting party development (institutional choice, electoral design and party law), the type of parties emerging (organisation, ideology and membership) and parties' relationship with society. The analysis reveals that informal forms of political relations and behaviour are affecting the ability of political parties to function effectively in terms of their relationship to democratisation. Due to the use of informal preference and selective application of formal rules and the personalisation of the political system around the president, Nursultan Nazarbaev, only pro-presidential parties dominate the party system at the expense of other political opinions. Simultaneously, political parties and formal institutional rules assist in legitimising informal political behaviour and relations, providing elite cohesion and formal vehicles for high level elites to protect and extend their political and economic interests. The study reveals how the complex relationship between informal and formal politics in post-Soviet states is assisting in creating durable authoritarian regimes. Contents List of figures and Tables i Note on Transliteration ii Acknowledgments iii Abbreviations and key terms v Glossary of political parties vii Introduction: In-between the Informal and Formal - Introducing Political Party Development in Kazakhstan 1 1. Utility of Democratisation Literature in Central Asia 5 1.1 The Functionalist vs. Genetic School 6 1.2 Problems of post-Communism and the Democratisation Literature 7 2. Theoretical Approaches to Politics and Society in Central Asia 9 2.1 Nationalism and Ethnicity Approach 11 2.2 Traditionalism 13 3. Political Institutions in Central Asia 15 3.1 Soviet Institutional legacies 15 3.2 Clan Politics 17 4. Political Parties in Kazakhstan and Central Asia 20 5. Issues of Definition 25 5.1 Institutions vs. Organisations 25 5.2 Informal Institutions vs. Informal Phenomena 26 5.3 Neopatrimonialism and Clientelism 28 5.4 Party and Party Development 28 6. Chapter Summary 31 Chapter One: Neopatrimonialism and Party Development: A Framework for Analysis 33 1. Neopatrimonialism 37 1.1 Patrimonialism 37 1.2 Neopatrimonialism 39 1.2.1 Informal Patrimonial Components 41 1.2.2 Formal Institutional Legal-Rational Structural Components 44 2. The Relevance of Neopatrimonialism to Former Soviet States 46 2.1 Patrimonial Communism 47 2.2 Patrimonialism in Soviet Central Asia 48 2.3 Contingency of Transition 49 2.4 Conceptual Issues 50 3. Formal Theoretical Framework Regarding Political Parties: Institutional Factors Affecting Party Development 52 3.1 Institutional Design Presidentialism vs. Parliamentarism 53 3.2 Electoral Design 56 3.3 Electoral Systems in Former Soviet States 57 3.4 Electoral Rules and the Influence of Informal Politics 58 3.5 Constitutional Laws Pertaining to Political Parties 60 4. Formal Theoretical Framework Regarding Political Parties: Party Typology 62 4.1 Assessing Party Types in the Former Soviet Union 63 4.2 A Typological Framework for Parties in Kazakhstan 66 5. Formal Theoretical Framework Regarding Political Parties: Societal Linkages 69 5.1 West European Social Cleavages 69 5.2 Social Cleavages and Post-Communism 70 5.3 Social Linkages in Neopatrimonial Kazakhstan 72 6. Concluding Remarks 75 Chapter Two: Methodological Considerations and Research Design 78 1. Research Strategy: Grounded Theory 79 1.1 Defining Grounded Theory 79 1.2 Theoretical Sensitivity 81 1.3 Criticisms of Grounded Theory 82 2. Data Collection: Methods and Process 83 2.1 Semi-Structured Interviews 84 2.2 Designing and Conducting Interviews 86 2.3 Problems with Interviews 88 2.4 Documentary Data 90 2.5 Observation 93 2.6 Triangulation 93 3. Data Analysis 94 3.1 OpenCoding 95 3.2 Axial Coding 96 3.3 Selective Coding 99 4. Concluding Remarks 101 Chapter Three: Uncertain Transition: The Emergence of a Neopatrimonial Form of rule in Kazakhstan 102 1. Pre-Soviet and Soviet Patrimonialism in Central Asia and Kazakhstan 104 1.1 Patrimonialism in pre-Soviet Central Asia 104 1.2 Patrimonial Communism 105 2. 1990-1994 Institutional Conflict and Emerging Pluralism 111 2.1 Institutional Competition and Conflict 112 2.2 Emerging Pluralism 114 2.3 Electoral Competition: 1994 Parliamentary Election 118 3. 1995-1998 The Consolidation of Presidential Power and the Emergence of Informal Factional Elite Groups 122 3.1 Formal Concentration of Presidential Power 122 3.2 Informal Concentration of Powers: Loyal Parties and Cadre 124 3.3 Privatisation and the Emergence of New Business Elites 127 4. 1998-2004 Elite Fragmentation 131 4.1 First Wave 1998:Akezhan Kazhegeldin 132 4.2 Second Wave 2001: Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan 134 4.3 Third Wave 2004: ZamanbekNurkadilov and ZharmakhanTuiakbai 138 5. 1999-2007Pro-presidential Consolidation 139 5.1 Party Consolidation 139 5.2 Economic and Media centralisation 142 5.3 The Aliev Affair and Controlling Elite Ambition 143 5.4 Formal Constitutional Consolidation 145 6. Concluding Remarks 145 Chapter Four: Institutional Constraints on Political Parties 147 1. Institutional Choice: The Presidency and The President 149 1.1 Structure and Agency 149 1.2 Formal Institutional Dominance 150 1.3 Informal Institutional Dominance: The Power of Patronage Networks 151 1.4 Establishing a Dominant Pro-Presidential Party 153 1.5 Constructing Multipartism: Virtual Parties 157 1.6 The Cooption and Marginalisation of Opposition Parties 161 2. Electoral Design: Constraints on Electoral Competition 163 2.1 Early Stage Majoritarianism 164 2.2 Mixed-Member Majoritarianism (MMM) 167 2.3 Full Proportional (PR) System 169 2.4 The Influence of Informal Political Behaviourand Relationson Formal Rules 171 3. The Law about Political Parties 178 3.1 Drivers for the 2002 Law on Political Parties 179 3.2 The 2002 Law on Political Parties 181 3.3 The Selective Application of the Formal Rules: The Case of Alga 184 4. Concluding Remarks 188 Chapter Five: What Type of Parties? Membership, Organisation, Ideology and Behavioural Norms 191 1. Memberships, Organisation and the Power of Party Elites 194 1.1 Party Membership 194 1.2 The Informality of Party Membership 195 1.3 Formal Party Organisation 199 1.4 The Power of Party Elites 201 1.5 Five Types of Party Organisational Rationale 203 2. Ideology and Programmatic content 212 2.1 Parties With Unambiguous Ideological Positions 214 2.2 Parties Who Attempt to Present Ideological Foundations 215 2.3 Parties Without Clear Programmatic Distinctions 217 2.4 Ideological Pragmatism 219 2.5 Centrality of Personality 221 3. Behavioural norms 223 3.1 Parties with a Proto-Hegemonic Outlook 224 3.2 PartiesAcquiescent to the Dominanceof a Proto-Hegemonic Party 226 3.3 Parties with a Tolerant and Pluralistic Outlook 228 4. Concluding Remarks 230 Chapter Six: Parties and Society 233 1. Disconnection and Passivity: The Gap Between Parties and Society and the Political Disinterest of Citizens in Kazakhstan 235 1.1 The Great Disconnection: Parties, Citizens and the State in Kazakhstan 235 1.2 The Passivity of Society 237 1.3 The Particularities of Kazakh Social Stratification 239 1.4 Formal Structural Influence: The Role of the CPSU 241 1.5 The Influence of Informal Politics: Charismaticand Clientelistic linkages 243 2. Homogeneity of Opinion 249 2.1 Homogeneity of Opinion: The Centrality of Nazarbaev's leadership 249 2.2 Nur Otan: The Party of National Unity 252 2.3 Nur Oran 's Dominance in the Regions 254 2.4 The Importance of Media Preference and Informal Politics in Consolidating Nur Otan's Position