See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330318710 Major League Baseball and Crime: Opportunity, Spatial Patterns, and Team Rivalry at St. Louis Cardinal Games Article in Journal of Sports Economics · January 2019 DOI: 10.1177/1527002518822702 CITATIONS READS 9 215 2 authors, including: Dennis Mares Southern Illinois University Edwardsville 18 PUBLICATIONS 407 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Climate Change and Violence View project Police technology View project All content following this page was uploaded by Dennis Mares on 13 January 2019. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. 1 Published in: Journal of Sports Economics DOI: 10.1177/1527002518822702 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1527002518822702 Major League Baseball and Crime: Opportunity, Spatial Patterns, and Team Rivalry at St. Louis Cardinal Games Dennis Mares Emily Blackburn Abstract Hosting professional sports teams is often seen as a financial benefit for cities. In the following analysis, we provide evidence that sports teams also carry costs. The analysis, the first examining a major-league baseball team, finds significant increases in a variety of crimes during home game days of the St. Louis Cardinals. Adjusting for attendance and game length, this study finds that larcenies, motor vehicle thefts, minor assaults, disorderly conduct and destruction of property increase in volume during game days. Increases concentrate especially around the immediate stadium area, but some are also observable in city- wide levels of crime. Additionally, this study examines differences between the time of day a game is played, and games played against its historic rival, the Chicago Cubs. Keywords: Baseball, MLB, St. Louis, Crime, Team Rivalry 2 Introduction Recent interest in the economic benefits of major sports teams increasingly focuses on the deleterious economic effects of crime during major sports events. Several studies, for instance, have linked football and soccer to increasing crime rates. Major League Baseball (MLB) has generally been overlooked in such studies (Vermillion, Stoldt, & Bass, 2009). Larrick, Timmerman, Carton, and Abreya (2011), note a relation between warm temperatures and the likelihood of a pitcher hitting a batter, but no studies examine if the game event itself may have an impact on crime. Perhaps the reason for this gap in the literature rests on the notion that baseball is considered a family friendly spectator sport, not associated with rioting sometimes present during soccer or college football games (Seff, 2015). MLB games may primarily increase crime because large numbers of people and their possessions increase opportunities for crime. The following study is the first to systematically evaluate the link between a MLB team and a wide range of offenses. Using nearly 23 years of daily data from St. Louis, MO we examine how crimes are likely to change during game days. We explore crimes in which the spectators are likely perpetrators (disorder offenses), and crimes in which the spectators are likely victims (pecuniary offenses). The study incorporates both attendance and game length to gauge the elasticity of crime during game days, and additionally explores the spatial dynamics of crime changes during game days by comparing the stadium area to city wide changes. Results indicate that in St. Louis, MLB games are likely responsible for increases in a variety of serious property crimes (larceny and motor vehicle theft) as well as increases in disorder related offenses (minor assault, disorderly conduct and vandalism). Prior Quantitative Research on Sports and Crime Levels The relatively small body of quantitative literature on the link between crime and professional sports primarily focuses on (American) Football and soccer. In a study of 26 college football towns, for 3 example, Rees and Schnepel (2009) examine if college football games are tied to increases in criminality. The authors study daily data over a period of six years. Reporting on both home and away games, Rees and Schnepel conclude that home games are associated with a 9% increase in assaults an 18% increase in vandalism, a 13% increase in DUIs, and a substantial 41% uptick in arrests for disorderly conduct. Away games do not affect crime levels, but home game losses appear to increase crime levels more so than home game wins. In a six-city sample of National Football League (NFL) teams, Card and Dahl (2011) find that upset losses are associated with a 10% increase in domestic assaults in those cities. When the home team wins, or expectations are exceeded, no such criminogenic effects are detected. Card and Dahl’s study shows that crime may not just increase directly near the site of the game, but that spectators in a variety of locations may be impacted. Using annual metropolitan crime data, Baumann, Ciavarra, Englehardt, and Matheson (2012) examine if the presence of professional sports teams is associated with increases in either property or violent crimes; the results indicate no association between the presence of sports teams and higher crime levels. One may, however, question whether annual data are sufficient and distinct enough to show such patterns. Using a natural experiment, the Detroit Lions relocation in 2002, Pyun and Hall (2016) study levels of assaults, larceny, auto thefts and vandalism before and after the team’s relocation. Results of this study suggest that after the exit of the Lions larcenies experienced a significant reduction. In a more recent study, Pyun (2018) studies the move of the Washington Nationals to Washington DC in 2005. Using a triple difference-in-difference approach Pyun (2018) uncovers a significant increase in assaults as a result of the move. In perhaps the most comprehensive examination of professional NFL games and crime, Kalist and Lee (2014) examine three years of daily crimes in eight cities and find that home games are associated with a 2.6 % increase in total crimes. Larcenies and motor vehicle thefts are hit particularly hard with increases of 4.1 and 6.7% respectively. The authors acknowledge, however, that these results reflect city wide crime increases, and may not reflect what happens near the stadiums. Using data from the 1990 World Soccer Cup in Italy, Campaniello (2011) 4 examines the impact of mega sporting events on crime. Results indicate that provinces hosting such games experience an increase in pick pocketing, shoplifting and burglary. In a more detailed study of soccer matches in London boroughs, Marie (2016) finds a significant impact based on attendance levels, equaling about a four percent increase in crime for each 10,000 attendees at a soccer match. Disaggregating crime levels further, Marie finds no support for increases in violent crime, yet details a significant increase in property offenses. Additionally, in an examination of soccer matches in Montevideo, Uruguay, Munyo and Rossi (2013) examine the impact of upset wins and losses on property and violent offenses. Upset losses significantly increase robberies, whereas upset wins decrease robberies, indicating that the outcome of matches may be important. Most prior studies examine city crime levels, but Breetzke and Cohn (2013) also explore spatial dimensions of sporting games, comparing crime level changes at multiple distances from a stadium. Breetzke and Cohn (2013) study roughly five years of sporting events (soccer and rugby) in a South African city. Results indicate that 50 more crimes occur on days when the home team wins, whereas 30 additional crimes occur on average if the home team loses. Interestingly, Breetzke and Cohn find that assaults and drunk and disorderly incidents increase up to a one-mile radius around the stadium but find no significant effects city-wide. This finding may indicate that the scale of geography matters. Billings and Depken (2012) report similar findings during NFL and NBA games in Charlotte, NC. Areas immediately surrounding the sports venues see marked increases in both violent and property offenses. Interestingly, these authors report a decline in crime in areas between one and two miles away from the stadia. Studies that only examine city level data may risk ‘washing’ out results because the increases around a stadium area may not be large enough to significantly alter a city’s ‘natural’ variation in crime levels. They also risk not identifying geographic displacements in crime (Billings and Depken, 2012). This is particularly relevant in a US setting where political fragmentation of urban boundaries means researchers are studying small and large cities as equivalent. The predicted impacts of professional sports teams on city crime levels may thus -in part- reflect the population size of the municipality. 5 A few conclusions can be drawn from prior research. Most studies report a positive association between some crime categories and sporting events. The strongest support for such a link is among property offenses (such as vehicle thefts) and less-serious aggressive behaviors (such as minor assaults and disorderly conduct). There is little evidence that serious assaults or burglaries are influenced by game days. Results appear stronger for smaller geographic areas and there may be a decay as one moves further away from the immediate stadium area. Finally, studies using daily data appear to find the strongest and most consistent associations between sports events and crime. The results thus strongly speak to the importance of the level of aggregation in the data with the most refined data showing the most consistent positive findings. Absent in current research is a more thorough assessment of Major League Baseball (MLB) games. As indicated, most studies thus far have focused on Football (US) or soccer (international), but few have ventured beyond. Baseball is an ideal candidate for study. The sport is generally considered a more family friendly spectator affair with little documented violent fan rivalry. Spectator property victimization may thus be a more pressing issue at MLB games, which draw in large crowds many times throughout the year.