Strategic Plan Needs Assessment December 2017 1 Table of Contents 1.1 Area and Population .................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Area .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Population Estimates ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Ethnic Minorities ...................................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Population Density ................................................................................................................................... 8 1.5 Overall Births and Deaths ........................................................................................................................ 8 1.6 Migration .................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.7 Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.8 Centenarians in South Ayrshire ............................................................................................................. 11 2. Households and Dwellings ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Dwellings ................................................................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Dwelling by Type .................................................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Household Tenure .................................................................................................................................. 16 2.4 Households in South Ayrshire ................................................................................................................ 16 2.5 Household Type ..................................................................................................................................... 17 2.6 Household Projections ........................................................................................................................... 18 2.7 Single Person Households ...................................................................................................................... 18 2.8 Lone Parent Households ........................................................................................................................ 19 2.9 Homelessness......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.10 Temporary Accommodation ................................................................................................................ 20 3. Deprivation in South Ayrshire ...................................................................................................................... 22 3.1 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) ...................................................................................... 22 3.2 Income Deprivation ................................................................................................................................ 26 3.3 Employment Deprivation ....................................................................................................................... 30 3.4 Geographic Access to Services ............................................................................................................... 34 3.5 Disabled Employment ............................................................................................................................ 36 3.6 Lone Parent Employment ...................................................................................................................... 36 3.7 Child Poverty .......................................................................................................................................... 36 3.8 Fuel Poverty ........................................................................................................................................... 37 4. General Population Health ........................................................................................................................... 40 4.1 Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy ........................................................................................ 40 4.2 General Health ....................................................................................................................................... 42 2 4.3 Long Term Conditions ............................................................................................................................ 43 4.4 Mortality ................................................................................................................................................ 45 4.5 Smoking .................................................................................................................................................. 48 4.6 Obese Adults .......................................................................................................................................... 48 4.7 Physical Activity ...................................................................................................................................... 48 4.8 Palliative Care /End of Life ..................................................................................................................... 49 5. Specific Health Conditions ........................................................................................................................... 51 5.1 Learning Disabilities ............................................................................................................................... 51 5.2 Mental Health ........................................................................................................................................ 53 5.3 Dementia ................................................................................................................................................ 56 5.4 Suicide Rates .......................................................................................................................................... 57 5.5 Risk Taking Behaviour ............................................................................................................................ 57 5.5.1 Alcohol ............................................................................................................................................ 57 5.5.2 Drugs ............................................................................................................................................... 58 6. Unscheduled Care ........................................................................................................................................ 61 6.1 Accident and Emergency ........................................................................................................................ 61 6.2 Inpatient Admission following Accident and Emergency Attendance ................................................... 63 6.3 Delayed discharges ................................................................................................................................ 66 7. Community Services ..................................................................................................................................... 68 7.1 Carers in South Ayrshire......................................................................................................................... 68 7.2 Care Homes ............................................................................................................................................ 69 7.2.1 Care Home Projections ................................................................................................................... 71 7.3 Home Care ............................................................................................................................................. 71 7.3.2 Care at Home Projections ............................................................................................................... 72 7.4 Adult Protection ..................................................................................................................................... 72 8. Children and Young People .......................................................................................................................... 75 8.1 Mortality ................................................................................................................................................ 75 8.2 Maternity – Breastfeeding ..................................................................................................................... 76 8.2 Maternal Smoking at Antenatal Booking ............................................................................................... 77 8.3 Low Birth Weight ..................................................................................................................................