In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy By George Grant Foreword by Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy ABOUT THE AUTHOR George Grant is a non-resident Associate Fellow at The Henry Jackson Society. He has written widely on issues relating to foreign policy and defence, with major publications includingSucceeding in Afghanistan (September 2010); The Tipping Point: British National Strategy and the UK’s Future World Role (July 2011); and Shocks and Disruptions: The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security (April 2012). George has also worked extensively on the conflict in Libya and the country’s subsequent post-Gaddafi transition. He moved to Tripoli full-time in May 2012 to become deputy editor of the country’s first post-Gaddafi English-language newspaper, theLibya Herald, as well as Libya correspondent for The Times. He provides regular analysis for national and international newspapers – including The Times, the Daily Telegraph, the Guardian, and the Wall Street Journal Europe – as well as on TV and radio news outlets, including the BBC; Al Jazeera; Channel 4 News; and Sky News. A frequent speaker on foreign-policy and defence issues, George has provided briefings to the Foreign & Commonwealth Office; the Ministry of Defence; the Stabilisation Unit; and the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. George holds Masters degrees in History from the University of Edinburgh, and in Investigative Journalism from City University, London. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe a debt of thanks to a large number of people for their help in producing this report. First, I should like to thank Dr Alan Mendoza and The Henry Jackson Society (HJS) for commissioning me to write the report. My thanks also to all those at HJS, in particular Mark Fergusson; Elizabeth Lee; Davis Lewin; and Hannah Nomm, who assisted in the report’s production and launch at various stages. This analysis would have been very much poorer without the expert insights of all those interviewed for the report, as well as those who offered comments on the draft, and my thanks also goes out to them. Finally, I should like to extend particular thanks to Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford, who has not only written the Foreword, but has also been an invaluable support. Stuart is universally respected for his efforts to provide clarity and depth to this issue, having authored the first serious assessment of how an independent Scotland might structure its Armed Forces. A former SNP parliamentary candidate who remains ready to provide a non-partisan assessment, Stuart is additionally valuable as a voice of balance in this most divisive of debates. It only remains for me to say that any errors or omissions contained within this publication are mine alone. 3 In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy ABOUT THE HENRY JACKSON SOCIETY Contents The Henry Jackson Society is a cross-partisan, British think-tank. Our founders and supporters are united by a common interest in fostering a strong British, European, and American commitment towards freedom; liberty; constitutional democracy; human rights; governmental and institutional reform; and a robust foreign, security, ABOUT THE AUTHOR 3 and defence policy and transatlantic alliance. The Henry Jackson Society is a registered charity (no. 1113948). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTs 3 For more information about Henry Jackson Society activities; our research ABOUT THE HENRY JACKSON SOCIETY 4 programme; and public events, please see: FOREWORd 8 www.henryjacksonsociety.org ACRONYMs 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 INTRODUCTION 17 Chapter I – DefenDIng What, exaCtly? 21 THE FOREIGN POLICy OF AN Independent Scotland 21 Potential RISkS to Scottish National Security 22 Chapter II – JoInIng NATO 27 WOULD Scotland REMAIN WITHIN NATO, OR Have to Reapply? 30 JOINING A Nuclear-ARMED ALLIANCE whilst MAkING Scotland Nuclear-Free 31 - Allowing Nuclear-ARMED Vessels to DOCk IN Scottish Ports 33 - WANTING TO MAkE THE RUk NUCLEAR FREE? 34 THE CASE against NATO Membership for A Nuclear-FREE Scotland 34 - Divisions ON NATO Membership WITHIN THE SNP 37 THE Geostrategic Importance OF Scotland IN NATO 37 THE Potential Impact OF NATO Membership ON FOREIGN AND Defence POLICy 38 Chapter III – establIshIng a sCottIsh DefenCe forCe 43 THE SNP’S Proposed DEFENCE Budget 43 Securing Scotland’S “SHARE” OF Uk Military Assets 45 THE Scottish Regiments 46 WOULD THE SNP’S Proposals Result IN AN Imbalanced DEFENCE Force? 47 THE SNP’S Aspirations for DEFENCE Equipment 48 - Submarines 49 - Frigates 49 - Remaining Scottish Navy 50 - Fast Jets 51 - MARITIME Patrol Aircraft 53 - Remaining Scottish AIR Force 54 - Scottish ARMy 54 Special Forces 55 4 5 Contents In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy Choosing BETWEEN THE BRITISH ARMED Forces and THE Scottish DEFENCE Force 56 ‘Smart DEFENCE’ and THE Specialisation OF Scotland’S ARMED Forces 58 DEFENCE Cooperation WITH THE RUK 59 Chapter IV – remoVIng trIDent 63 How qUICkLy COULD TRIDENT BE Moved IN AN Emergency? 66 THE JOB Implications OF TRIDENT Removal 68 Moving TRIDENT – THE Realistic Scenario 70 Chapter V – IntellIgenCe anD Cyber seCurIty 73 Intelligence SHARING WITH THE RUk and OTHER Countries 74 - THE THIRD-Party Rule 77 - Multilateral Intelligence-Sharing Relationships 78 Establishing Scottish Security AND Intelligence Services 78 - THE Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) 79 - THE Security Service (MI5) 79 - Government Communications Headquarters (GCHq) 81 CyBER Security BEyond GCHQ 82 Developing AN Integrated National CyBER Security Strategy 83 SCALING THE CyBER Security Problem: THE Challenge for Scotland 85 Chapter VI – the future of the sCottIsh DefenCe InDustry 89 THE Importance OF THE MOD for Scotland’S DEFENCE Industry 90 - THE Article 346 Exemption 93 THE FUTURE OF THE TyPE 26 Global Combat Ship 93 THE FUTURE OF THE qUEEN ELIzABETH-CLASS Aircraft Carriers 94 THE MOOD amongst THE DEFENCE Industry IN Scotland 95 Conditions for THE Success OF THE Scottish DEFENCE Industry 95 OPEN Procurement 98 JOINT Procurement 99 CONCLUSION 101 END NOTEs 105 appenDIx 119 BIBLIOGRAPHY 121 6 Foreword In Scotland’s Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy intelligence gathering, it is clear that people and contribute around £1.8 billion Foreword Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford an independent Scotland could not per annum to the country’s economy. realistically hope to replicate the current Much of this – think of the Clyde As the referendum on Scottish report; but, I thought it appropriate to Uk triad of the Security Service (MI5); shipyards and the Faslane/Coulport naval independence – to be held on 18 comment on some of the main topics the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6); base – relies on orders from the MoD and September 2014 – looms ever closer, how which he has covered. Whilst everyone and Government Communications hosting on the Trident submarine fleet. Headquarters (GCHq). Even attempting an independent Scotland might define its will have their own ideas on what the With the best will in the world, if – defence policy and raise; organise; and most important aspects might be, for me to produce a scaled-down version of the latter would appear to be well beyond the following Scottish independence – the deploy its own Armed Forces has become there are only three: NATO membership, MoD were to place future equipment one of the major topics du jour of the which is inextricably tied to the question likely resources of a fledgling independent nation of some 5 million souls. orders elsewhere in the Uk, under the debate. And yet, surprisingly little has of the future prospects of Trident-armed EU Article 346 exemption, then the been published on it to date. submarines based at Faslane on the So, an independent Scotland would be Scottish defence industries would be in Clyde; cyber security and intelligence George Grant’s assessment of the reliant, in the short-to-medium term trouble. Similarly, if the Trident fleet was gathering; and Scottish jobs dependent at least, on the rest of the Uk (rUk) for forced to leave the Clyde, then there defence strategy of the Scottish National on the defence industry. Party (SNP), who are the prime movers most of its intelligence. Whether the would undoubtedly be job losses (the in the ‘yes Scotland’ campaign for The SNP conference in October 2012 rest of the Uk would be willing or able SNP’s proposal to base both the Scottish Scottish independence, is accordingly saw the party reverse its long-held policy to share its intelligence with Scotland is Navy and Joint Headquarters there both appropriate and timely. As he so on NATO, which had been – up until another thing altogether, tied in as it is notwithstanding). This is something the rightly points out, “precious little has then – to withdraw from the alliance with the US; Canada; Australia; and New SNP need to acknowledge and deal with, been said by either the SNP or the upon independence, as it is a “nuclear- zealand via the ‘Five Eyes’ arrangement no matter how bitter a political pill it may British Government” about the potential led alliance”. This made neither military for sharing signals intelligence (SIGINT). be to swallow. defence implications of the referendum; nor political sense, and the party However, without the rUk, Scotland will be exceedingly vulnerable to the cyber I could go on, but I would only be the British Government refuses to leadership had long acknowledged it. repeating what George Grant has already speculate, and the SNP refuse to give any Post conference, the SNP position is – attacks and terrorism which are the most likely future risks for the newly visited in this admirable report. His study detail. and I paraphrase here – to remain within asks these – and many other – basic and NATO, but to work towards the removal independent state.