How to Limit Warming to 2°C • Timber Certification Felled • Pay Peeves Professional Scientists • Why Culling Fails Volume 38 | Number 1 JAN/FEB 2017 | $9.95 The Ecology of Disasters Environmental disasters create natural experiments on a scale that ecologists could never attempt in the field or laboratory Can You Make Beer from Vegemite? The Role of Gut Microbes in Autism What Pickpockets Teach Us About Perception What We Need to Colonise Mars • Diabetes Link to Platypus Venom • Homeopathy Label Limits Make Sense of Science Access past and present editions, plus additional content, when you subscribe online. TAX INVOICE Payment details: J ‡ J * J * J Control Publications Cheque Visa Mastercard Money Order ‡ MAIL ORDER FORM ABN 46 006 591 304 Make cheques payable to Control Publications Pty Ltd. *A 2% surcharge applies to credit card transactions. Six issues per year. 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FAX TO: (03) 9500 0255 ONLINE: www.austscience.com sample Subscribe at www.austscience.com @austscience facebook.com/austscience CONTENTS FEATURES 14 The Mars Challenge The first colonists on Mars will need some amazing science and meticulous planning to cope with cosmic radiation and find ways to generate air, water, food and energy. 18 Alchemists of Catastrophe: How Disasters Deliver Data Ecologists are treating oil spills, species invasions and other environmental calamities as natural experiments on a scale that could never be attained by normal laboratory or field studies. 14 23 What We Can Learn from Pickpockets Scientists are using the perceptual trickery of pickpockets and magicians as a new tool to study perceptual processing in the brain. 26 Can You Make Beer from the Yeast in Vegemite? Vegemite is made from the spent yeast left over from the fermentation of beer. Can it be recycled to produce Vegemite beer, and how does it taste? 28 Does Culling Work? Culling of pests such as foxes, feral cats and dingoes can have unexpected and completely undesirable effects. 23 31 The Two Degree Dilemma We’ve agreed to limit the rise in global temperature to 2°C, but how will we do it? 35 The Role of Gut Microbes in Autism Gut microbes can modify our mood and even change our behaviour. They’ve now been implicated in a neuronal mutation found in the gut and brain of autistic patients. 38 Pride, Prejudice and Persistence It took two decades for William Paterson to persuade his patron Sir Joseph Banks to recognise his achievements through membership of the Royal Society. 26 con SCIENCE 41 Career Concerns Could Bust the Ideas Boom A survey of professional scientists has uncovered worker fatigue and broad dissatisfaction with remuneration and reduced scientific capability as a result of cost-cutting. 42 Timber Certification Can’t See the Wood for the Trees There are many laws that govern the harvesting and trading of timber, but with illegal logging still rife and prosecution rates low, it’s time for 35 science to step in. JAN/FEB 2017 | | 3 CONTENTS NEWS 6 Browse A round-up of science news from our shores. COLUMNS 5 Up Front Working scientists are becoming disenchanted in the workplace at a 7 time when scientific literacy of students is slipping. 43 Neuropsy A new report describes a variant of Capgras syndrome in which a patient believed that his cat had been stolen by the FBI and replaced by an imposter that was spying on him. 44 Directions Research is a tapestry of creativity that enriches the society in which we live. 45 Out of this World A surprising finding about galaxy formation, and the discovery of starspots on Proxima Centauri. 46 The Bitter Pill 43 The US has made “no evidence” labels mandatory for homeopathic products, but a number of caveats may limit its effect. 47 The Naked Skeptic Beware the strawman when arguing that science has outgrown philosophy. 48 EcoLogic Conservation research is not being done in the countries where it’s most needed, and this will undermine efforts to preserve global biodiversity. 49 Lowe Tech Political foes have united in their condemnation of fear-mongering 49 about renewable energy. 50 Quandary Cryonics is a growing industry even if its feasibility is questionable and its ethics murky. 51 Australasian Sky Your map of the night sky this month. facebook.com/austscience 50 Follow us @austscience 4 ||JAN/FEB 2017 UP FRONT Unrest in the Ranks – and Rankings Working scientists are becoming disenchanted in the workplace at a time when scientific literacy of students is slipping. Last September this column discussed a report that science graduates were having diffi - www.austscience.com culty finding employment related to their studies. The Grattan Institute’s bleak conclu - EDITOR/PUBLISHER: sion was that “employment directly related to science expertise is unlikely to increase Guy Nolch substantially in the near future”. One would hope, then, that those who had managed to COLUMNISTS : David Reneke, Ian Lowe, storm the gates of employment in science would find their careers rewarding. Peter Bowditch, Michael Cook, Apparently not. A survey by Professional Scientists Australia, discussed in this edition John Long, Tim Hannan by its CEO Chris Walton (p.41), has found that working scientists are disgruntled about PATRONS : Australasian Science is several aspects of their careers. “More than a third of respondents reported being dissat - supported by Nobel Laureate Professor isfied with their current level of remuneration and over a third said they were considering Peter Doherty and renowned science broadcaster Robyn Williams, leaving their current employer,” the report said. “Many were concerned that their remu - representing excellence in science and its neration package was falling behind market rates for those undertaking similar work, communication. and that their package did not reflect the level of responsibility they undertook in their day-to-day work.” EDITORIAL CONTACTS The report also found “broad concern about science skills with around seven in ten Control Publications P/L, Box 2155, respondents saying cost-cutting was impacting science capability in their organisation,” Wattletree Rd PO, VIC 3145, Australia Phone: (03) 9500 0015 while “over half said deprofessionalisation in their organisation was a major concern”. It’s E-mail: [email protected] not surprising, then, that 61% reported that worker fatigue had increased in their organ - Web: www.austscience.com isation over the previous 12 months, while 56% said staff morale had declined. Twitter: @austscience Facebook: facebook.com/austscience The Grattan Institute had reported in August that the job market could not absorb the large number of science graduates. At least, it would appear, our younger generation ADVERTISING : Steve Austin is scientifically curious, and society at large will benefit from having a scientifically literate Email: [email protected] generation capable of competing in an increasingly technological world. For rates see austscience.com.au/ads Apparently not. Two reports issued late in 2016 found that Australia’s international DISTRIBUTION : rankings in science and mathematics have slipped. The Trends in International Math - Gordon & Gotch Ltd ematics and Science Study examines science and maths capabilities in Year 4 (49 nations) PRINT POST APPROVED PP 331379/0032 and Year 8 (39 countries). Since the last survey in 2011, Australia has slipped from 18th to 28th in Year 4 maths (remaining 25th for Year 4 science), and from 12th to 17th in ISSN 1442-679X *RRP $9.95 incl. GST Year 8 maths and science. Australasian Science is published six times Separately Australia was one of only three countries with significantly decreased maths per year. The opinions expressed in this and science scores among 15-year-olds tested in the OECD’s Programme for International publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Student Assessment (PISA). The high water mark set by Singapore puts their science the publisher. students 1.5 years ahead of ours and their maths students 2.5 years ahead. Even within CONTRIBUTIONS Australia there was an alarming disparity of nearly 3 years of schooling between students The Editor welcomes original articles of in the highest socio economic quartile and the lowest. interest to the general public written by Programs in place that aim to inspire students to follow careers in STEM will come qualified writers on fields within their to little if their wider peer groups aren’t engaged by science and their career aspirations expertise. Writers’ guidelines are at in STEM are dissuaded by reports of professional disillusionment. As Walton warns, http://www.australasianscience.com.au/ writers-guidelines. Prospective authors the government’s “so-called ‘ideas boom’ will simply implode unless we have the people should submit a summary to the Editor to make it happen”. prior to submitting a manuscript.