Final Modeling Appendix Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation, California Prepared by: United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Mid-Pacific Region December 2014 Contents Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1-1 Chapter 2 CalSim-II ......................................................................................................... 2-1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 2-1 WRIMS ............................................................................................................................ 2-1 CalSim-II.......................................................................................................................... 2-1 Model Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 2-2 Two-Step Simulation ..................................................................................................... 2-15 Operating Rules for the SLWRI .................................................................................... 2-15 SLWRI Hydrologic Analysis .................................................................................................. 2-19 Chapter 3 Temporal Downsizing of CalSim-II Flows for Use in Temperature Modeling .................................................................................................. 3-1 Chapter 4 Sacramento River Water Temperature Model ............................................ 4-1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 4-1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 4-1 Model Description .................................................................................................................... 4-2 Model Representation of the Physical System................................................................. 4-3 Model Representation of Reservoirs ................................................................................ 4-5 Selective Withdrawal Outlet Structures ........................................................................... 4-7 Model Representation of Streams .................................................................................. 4-11 Hydrologic Boundary Conditions .................................................................................. 4-13 Temperature Boundary Conditions Input Data .............................................................. 4-13 Meteorological Data....................................................................................................... 4-17 Temperature Model Calibration.............................................................................................. 4-17 SRWQM Calibration Results ......................................................................................... 4-18 Temperature Model Validation ............................................................................................... 4-49 SRWQM Validation Results .......................................................................................... 4-51 Chapter 5 Anadromous Fish Production Simulation (SALMOD) ............................... 5-1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 5-1 Present Study ................................................................................................................... 5-3 Specific Objective of the Present Study........................................................................... 5-4 Methods .................................................................................................................................... 5-4 Model Selection ............................................................................................................... 5-4 Model Processes............................................................................................................. 5-23 Egg Development and Juvenile Growth ........................................................................ 5-26 Movement and Associated Mortality ............................................................................. 5-30 Base Mortality Rates ...................................................................................................... 5-31 Thermal Mortality Rates ................................................................................................ 5-31 Habitat Capacity............................................................................................................. 5-41 Exogenous Production ................................................................................................... 5-43 i Final – December 2014 Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation Plan Formulation Appendix Summary of Model Parameters and Variables ....................................................................... 5-44 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................................ 5-47 Sensitivity Analysis Methods ........................................................................................ 5-48 Sensitivity Analysis Findings ........................................................................................ 5-51 Interpreting Model Results ..................................................................................................... 5-57 Uncertainty Inherent in Model Results .......................................................................... 5-57 Drawing Inferences from Model Results ....................................................................... 5-58 Discussion ............................................................................................................................... 5-59 Chapter 6 Statewide Agricultural Production Model ................................................... 6-1 Purpose and Need ..................................................................................................................... 6-1 SWAP Model Background and Overview ................................................................................ 6-1 Model Background and Development History ................................................................ 6-1 Model Overview .............................................................................................................. 6-1 SWAP Regions and Crop Definitions.............................................................................. 6-3 SWAP Model Detail ................................................................................................................. 6-8 Calibration Using PMP .................................................................................................... 6-8 Exponential Land PMP Cost Function ............................................................................ 6-9 Acreage Response Elasticities ....................................................................................... 6-11 Constant Elasticity of Substitution Production .............................................................. 6-11 Crop Demand Functions ................................................................................................ 6-13 Demand Shifts ................................................................................................................ 6-13 Technological Change ................................................................................................... 6-14 Water Supply and Groundwater Pumping ..................................................................... 6-14 Economic and Agronomic Constraints .......................................................................... 6-15 SWAP Model Inputs and Supporting Data ............................................................................. 6-16 Land-Use Data ............................................................................................................... 6-17 Crop Prices ..................................................................................................................... 6-18 Crop Yields .................................................................................................................... 6-19 Interest Rates .................................................................................................................. 6-20 Land Costs ..................................................................................................................... 6-21 Other Supply Costs ........................................................................................................ 6-22 Labor Costs .................................................................................................................... 6-23 Surface Water Costs ....................................................................................................... 6-25 Groundwater Costs......................................................................................................... 6-26 Applied Water per Acre ................................................................................................. 6-27 Available Water by Region and Source ........................................................................