CENTRAL ASIA Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan CENTRAL ASIA Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan P. STOBDAN INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan By P. Stobdan First Published in 2014 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-752-4 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch: Prime Arcade Office #11 1154 Saifee Street Opp. M.G.Road, Camp Pune-411001 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Preface ix Introduction xi 1. The Kyrgyz Revolution 1 The Tulip Revolution 2 The Key Factors 3 Not a Genuine Revolution 6 The July Election 9 The External Dimension 13 The Challenges Ahead 18 Reverse Tulip Revolution 20 New Challenges 22 2. Ethnic Divide: The Osh Riots 26 Strategic Dimension: Role of Russia? 28 The Aftermath 30 The Kyrgyzstan Inquiry Commission (KIC) 31 Kyrgyz Bellicose Response 32 The Parliamentary Commission (PC) 38 First Anniversary 44 Conclusion 46 3. Parliamentary Democracy 54 Kyrgyz Parliament (Zhogorku Kenesh) 54 Parliamentary Election 55 Formation of New Government 60 Role of Roza Otunbayeva 62 Regional Impact 65 Conclusion 66 vi Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan 4. First Democratic Presidential Election 69 The Election 69 New History 75 Atambayev’s Agenda 75 Russia: Main Strategic Partner 76 US Airbase: Dangerous Target for Iranian Missiles 77 Challenges Ahead 77 Conclusion 78 5. Islamic Extremism 84 Extremism and Politics 87 Islamisation of Kyrgyzstan 95 6. National Security Concept 105 External Threats 105 Internal Threats 106 7. Politics of Hydropower 108 Multilateral Mechanisms 111 Geo-Political Issues 111 Kambar-Ata Projects 113 CASA 1000 (Central Asia-South Asia): Exploring Export Potentials 114 Who will Control CASA 1000? 118 8. External Relations 121 Kazakhstan 124 Uzbekistan 125 Tajikistan 125 Pakistan 126 Iran 130 9. Russian Interests in Kyrgyzstan 137 Kambar-Ata 150 Joint Russian Military Base (JRMB) 152 Kyrgyz Debts to Russia 153 Transnational Corporation Dastan OJSC 154 The post-2014 Security Scenario 158 Contents vii 10. Kyrgyz-US Relations: Politics of Airbase 162 Politics and Diplomacy over Manas Transit Centre 162 New Challenge for the US 164 Military Base to Fuel Supply Contract 166 Fresh Diplomacy over Transit Centre 168 Beyond the Transit Centre 172 Profiting from the Drawdown 174 11. The Chinese Forays 182 Railway Connectivity 187 Energy Deals 188 Selling Soft Power 190 Security Nexus 192 Kyrgyz Resentment 194 China-Eurasia Trade Initiative 198 Conclusion 200 12. The Indo-Kyrgyz Relations 206 Historical Relations 206 Contemporary Relations 207 Institutional Relations 209 Trade 210 Investments 210 Line of Credit 210 Assistance Programmes 211 Disaster Relief and Humanitarian Aid 211 Potato Processing Plant 211 Technical Cooperation 212 Civil Aviation 212 Education and Culture 212 Defence Cooperation 213 The Kyrgyz-India Mountain Bio-Medical Research Centre (KIMBMRC) 214 Ties with Kyrgyz Defence Industry 215 ULAN Open Joint-Stock Company 218 Future Prospects 222 13. India’s “Connect Central Asia” Policy 227 Conclusion: Emerging Trends in Central Asia 231 viii Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan Annexures 1. Kyrgyzstan Inquiry Commission (KIC) 239 2. Kyrgyz Response to Story by the Economist 246 3. Non Paper : The Candidature of the Kyrgyz Republic for a Non-permanent Seat of the United Nations Security Council 248 4. Blake’s Testimony on U.S. Engagement in Central Asia 250 5. Keynote address by MOS Shri E. Ahamad at the First India-Central Asia Dialogue 258 Index 262 Preface The Central Asian states have completed 20 years of their independence in 2011. The five states have been undergoing an arduous and complex nation-building process, which is far from complete. They have suffered limitations due to centralised political and economic system inherited from the Soviet era; as such transformation has never been easy. While some states have achieved political success, others have done fairly well on the economic front. Except in Kyrgyzstan’s case, the leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have strongly resisted political change and instead they have adopted internal political mechanisms with varying style to stay in power. The politics in these states still remains unpredictable. None of the aging Presidents of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan appear to have clear succession plans despite some surreptitious intrigues among members of the ruling elite. The region is unlikely to remain calm in the coming years as signs of unrest over worsening economic conditions, rising ethnic tensions, growing Islamic extremism and demand for a regime change would become more visible. The systemic breakdown of the Soviet built infrastructure is already causing socio- economic chaos in the region. This is especially true for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In essence, the basic politico-economic characteristics of these countries remain no different from those in West Asia. But unlike in the Arab cases, both Russia and China are likely to firmly insulate the Central Asian regimes from failing through the intervention of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) structures. Kyrgyzstan is the only country that from its inception as an independent state had uniquely followed a liberal polity and privatised economy. It was even called the island of democracy in the post-Soviet space. The country was ruled for 14 years by Askar Akayev, who was a liberal physicist, until he developed an authoritarian tendency and became corrupt, resulting into overthrowing of his regime in 2005 through an uprising, which came to be known as Tulip Revolution. Since then, Kyrgyzstan went through a very difficult political transition. The major test has been the transition from a Soviet Republic to a parliamentary democracy, though it had to witness another major uprising in 2010. x Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan A shaky democratic experiment in coalition government is in place in Kyrgyzstan; but the institution of democracy and the rule of law remain underdeveloped. The country still remains locked in a difficult and intricate internal intra-clan discord that makes the Kyrgyz political process complicated. The country faces some tough challenges i.e., inter-ethnic rifts, inherent economic difficulties, rising threat of Islamic extremism, drug-trafficking, and the convoluted strategic games played by major powers. Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the world that hosts military bases of both Russia and the United States. Besides, China has found new means to retain its influence in Kyrgyzstan. But all in all, these difficult issues continue to keep Kyrgyzstan prone to instability This manuscript is an attempt to provide an overview of the political and strategic process at work in Kyrgyzstan. It is an attempt to trace the events in Kyrgyzstan that erupted in 2005 and the subsequent developments that followed until 2012. The book does not in any sense purport to be an academic endeavour on Central Asian studies but merely a narrative, as well as, an analytical account and a result of my own self-education and understanding gathered through extensive interactions with wide sections of people in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, especially with the think tanks, academia, government officials and the diplomatic community. The subject is capsulated to provide a reading brief on the region by taking the case of Kyrgyzstan. An attempt has been made to highlight some of the impinging issues that shape the dynamics of Kyrgyz polity. The book contains aspects of India’s interests in Kyrgyzstan as well, which should form a part of India’s newly launched ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy. While writing the manuscript, I have largely relied on the official sources and vernacular media reporting of Akipress, 24.kg news agency, KyrTAg, Vecherniy Bishkek, Vesti.kg, Kyrgyz Television, Kyrgyz Radio-1, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Interfax and others. Some of the points identified as well as analysed are a result of my participation in various conferences, seminars and discussions held in the region. Some of the impressions gathered are based on personal visits to various places in Kyrgyzstan. The views expressed in the book are my own. P. Stobdan Introduction The Kyrgyz are one of the most ancient peoples; their nomadic past tracing back to the legendary trilogy Epic Manas. The present Kyrgyz identity and nationhood revolves around this legendary hero. The statue of Manas is being resurrected in the centre of