Industry analysis #3 2020 Mobile data – first half 2020 40% more gigabytes in spite of the pandemic But revenue negatively affected: -0.5% 140% Average +51% Average +54% th 120% Tefficient’s 28 public analysis on the 100% development and drivers of mobile data ranks 116 80% operators based on average data usage per 60% SIM, total data traffic and revenue per gigabyte in 40% the first half of 2020. y growth in mobile data usage data mobile in y growth - o - 20% Y The data usage per SIM grew for basically every 0% Q1 2020 Q2 2020 operator. 42% could turn -20% that data usage growth into ARPU growth. It’s a bit lower than in our previous reports and COVID-19 is to blame; many operators did report negative revenue development in Q2 2020 when travelling stopped and many prepaid subscriptions expired. Mobile data traffic continued to grow, though: +40%. Although operators in certain markets were giving mobile data away to mitigate the negative consequences of lockdowns, most of the global traffic growth is true, underlying, growth. Data usage actually grew faster in Q2 2020 than in Q1 2020 even though lockdowns mainly affected Q2. Our industry demonstrated resilience, but now needs to fill the data monetisation toolbox with more or sharper tools. tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 3 September 2020 1 27 operators above 10 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020 Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for 116 reporting or reported1 mobile operators globally with values for the first half of 2020 or the full year of 2019. DNA, FI 3, AT Zain, KW Elisa, FI FarEasTone, TW 1) **LMT, LV Taiwan Mobile, TW 1) Nova, IS Zain, SA Chunghwa, TW 1) Zain, BH **Maxis, MY **Digi, MY *Telia, FI Zain, JO 3, DK Celcom, MY Bite, LT 1) Jio, IN Telia, LT 1) **dtac, TH 3 Europe, Group Telia, DK **Optus, AU **AIS, TH 3, SE **LG Uplus, KR 1) Plus Cyfrowy Polsat, PL **Free, FR Telenor, SE China Unicom, CN 3, ID Magenta, AT Tele2, SE Tele2, LT 1) **Play, PL Vodafone, IT TDC, DK Zain, Group Airtel, IN **Bouygues, FR Síminn, IS China Telecom, CN Telenor, DK *A1, AT *3, UK China Mobile, CN Swisscom, CH **Starhub, SG Vodafone, TR SK Telecom, KR **Entel, CL XL, ID **Turkcell, TR Ice, NO Indosat, ID Vodafone, ES MTS, RU (smartphone) T-Mobile, NL ***Wind 3, IT **Beeline, KZ **MTN Irancell, IR **Beeline, RU Orange, PL Vodafone, IS Vodafone Idea, IN Telia, NO *Iliad, IT **Türk Telekom, TR (4G-only) Movistar, CL Telia, SE Movistar, ES Vodafone, PT Telkomsel, ID Vodafone, UK *T-Mobile, PL Vodafone, RO **TIM, IT Movistar, PE **TIM, BR **Singtel, SG **Kyivstar, UA Smart, PH Telenor, NO Vodafone, Group **Djezzy, DZ *KPN, NL Vodafone, DE Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1) *Telenet BASE, BE O2, UK Dialog, LK Telenor, Group O2, DE **Telekom, DE **Proximus, BE **Orange, BE **VEON, PK Globe, PH *) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators T-Mobile, CZ **Beeline, UZ **) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage Vivo, BR Movistar, AR Robi, BD ***) Traffic calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations Movistar, MX Vodafone, GR **Banglalink, BD 1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020 **Grameenphone, BD **MTN, ZA Vodafone, EG Movistar, CO **MTN, NG Vodacom, Group 1H 2020 FY 2019 Zain, IQ Ncell, NP Zain, SD 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 GB per reported SIM per month Figure 1. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – all operators As it’s not easy to read Figure 1 we will break it down into three regions of the world, but let’s first identify the global data usage podium – see Figure 2. With 33.1 GB2, DNA from Finland reclaims the gold medal. Unlimited, speed-tiered, plans – both for smartphones and data-only – form a key component of the Finnish market logic. DNA doesn’t report how large share of its base that has unlimited plans, but for Finland as a whole, that share was 74% of non-M2M SIMs in December 2019. The Finnish operators all launched 5G in 2019. 1 By regulators – if reported by 3 September 2020 2 Telenor acquired DNA in 2019 and is applying a stricter standard when reporting subscription base than what DNA previous did. This has elevated the average usage per subscription somewhat. We have applied Telenor’s reporting also retroactively. tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 3 September 2020 2 Drei (3) Austria takes the silver medal this time with 29.8 GB. The company carried 41% of Austria’s total mobile data traffic in Q1 20203. The Austrian home internet plans were pretty much invented by Drei and come with unlimited, speed-tiered, data. Hybrid routers are now offered by all operators (A1, Magenta and Drei) to speed up the slow fixed internet that is characteristic for Austria. Unlimited smartphone plans are though a relatively new thing in Austria – Magenta and A1 (and finally also Drei) introduced these in 2019. All three have launched 5G; Drei and Magenta in 2019 and A1 early this year. 33,1 DNA, FI 1 27,2 29,8 3, AT 2 24,8 Zain, KW 3 27,7 26,2 Elisa, FI 20,7 24,5 FarEasTone, TW 1) 20,6 **LMT, LV 24,2 23,4 Taiwan Mobile, TW 1) 20,1 Nova, IS 19,6 Zain, SA 19,4 18,6 Chunghwa, TW 1) 15,5 Zain, BH 16,5 16,2 **Maxis, MY 11,8 14,0 **Digi, MY 12,0 *Telia, FI 13,9 Zain, JO 13,8 3, DK 13,6 13,2 Celcom, MY 10,3 12,2 Bite, LT 1) 8,4 11,7 Jio, IN 11,4 1H 2020 FY 2019 *) Traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators GB per reported SIM per month **) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage 1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020 Figure 2. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – top 19 operators The bronze medallist, Zain Kuwait, was our FY 2019 gold medallist, as Zain doesn’t report mobile data traffic for its affiliates more than once a year4. Zain’s 27.7 GB per SIM per month in 2019 grants it the third place now that DNA and Drei both exceeded that level for the first half of 2020. We suspect that if Zain would have reported 1H 2020 too, its usage could have granted it a higher position. If so, Zain Kuwait might take back the lead when we sum up the full year of 2020. Zain launched 5G in June 2019 and sells smartphone plans with massive buckets – up to 2 TB per month with 5G. Zain is also offering data-only 5G plans with buckets up to 6 TB – and one truly unlimited 5G data-only plan for 100 KWD per month (that’s a whopping 277 EUR). 3 Q2 2020 stats not yet available from the regulator, RTR 4 Zain reports traffic for the whole group more frequently, though: In 1H 2020, traffic rose 46% tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 3 September 2020 3 Below the podium we find Elisa from Finland (26.2 GB per SIM per month in 1H 2020). The Taiwanese operator FarEasTone is fifth with 24.5 GB in Q1 2020. Latvia’s LMT is #6 based on a communicated growth figure for 2019, but as LMT’s press department didn’t respond to our question on how the release should be interpreted, the position of LMT could be exaggerated. Taiwan Mobile (23.4 GB in Q1 2020) is #7 with Iceland’s unlimited challenger Nova #8 (19.6 GB in 2019). Zain in Saudi Arabia follows as #9. The top ten ends with Taiwan’s Chunghwa that has significantly lower usage (18.6 GB in Q1 2020) compared to FarEasTone and Taiwan Mobile. tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 3 September 2020 4 Europe: Nordic & Baltic operators and ‘3’ dominate the top Now to the first of three breakdowns: Europe. The number 1 and 2 of the world, DNA Finland and Drei (3) Austria, top this chart with Elisa being third. DNA, FI 33,1 3, AT 29,8 Elisa, FI 26,2 **LMT, LV 24,2 Nova, IS 19,6 *Telia, FI 13,9 3, DK 13,6 Bite, LT 1) 12,2 Telia, LT 1) 11,4 Telia, DK 10,7 3, SE 10,3 Plus Cyfrowy Polsat, PL 9,9 **Free, FR 9,7 Telenor, SE 9,6 Magenta, AT 9,0 Tele2, SE 9,0 Tele2, LT 1) 8,9 **Play, PL 8,8 Vodafone, IT 8,8 TDC, DK 8,7 **Bouygues, FR 8,0 Síminn, IS 7,6 Telenor, DK 7,4 *A1, AT 7,3 *3, UK 7,3 Swisscom, CH 7,1 Ice, NO 6,6 Vodafone, ES 6,3 T-Mobile, NL 5,8 ***Wind 3, IT 5,6 Orange, PL 5,1 Vodafone, IS 5,1 Telia, NO 4,9 *Iliad, IT 4,8 Telia, SE 4,6 Movistar, ES 4,4 Vodafone, PT 4,4 Vodafone, UK 4,2 *T-Mobile, PL 4,1 Vodafone, RO 3,8 **TIM, IT 3,7 Telenor, NO 3,1 *KPN, NL 3,0 Vodafone, DE 2,9 Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1) 2,8 *) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators *Telenet BASE, BE 2,8 **) Traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage O2, UK 2,8 O2, DE 2,5 ***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations **Telekom, DE 2,4 1) 1H 2020 = Q1 2020 **Proximus, BE 2,3 **Orange, BE 2,2 T-Mobile, CZ 2,0 1H 2020 FY 2019 Vodafone, GR 1,5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 GB per reported SIM per month Figure 3.