INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS: Sociology M213A Fall 2004 Elizabeth Frankenberg [email protected], phone: 267-4967, 207 Haines Hall Office Hours: Wednesdays 9:15-11:15 and by appointment OVERVIEW: This course introduces students to the methods and models used to investigate population change, fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, and migration. It will also illustrate the application of demographic techniques to other aspects of the social world, such as labor force behavior and educational attainment. The course will emphasize both the logic underlying demographic techniques and the application of the techniques to real data. The course consists of lectures, problem sets, a midterm, and a final. The problem sets are designed to help students learn to apply demographic methods and are essential to comprehending the material covered in this course. READINGS AND OTHER MATERIALS: The primary textbook for this class is Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes , by Samuel H. Preston, Patrick Heuveline, and Michel Guillot (Blackwell Publishers, 2001). The syllabus also lists additional readings that demonstrate the application of methods to a wide range of substantive topics. Most of the papers on the list are available from JSTOR (type www.jstor.org from a UCLA computer, or from your Bruin online connection). If the paper is from the journal Demography and was published after 1999, go to the e-journals section within the “Information Services” section of the web page of the California Center for Population Research (www.ccpr.ucla.edu). Other papers are available through links on the class web page. Many of the readings outside of the textbook are for your reference; I do not expect you to read all of them during the course of this semester. Required readings are marked with an asterisk. Readings marked with two asterisks are required and will be available from me. We will discuss the marked papers, so please read them and think about questions or comments to make during discussion… it’s more interesting when you all participate! You will probably want to use a spreadsheet package such as excel to complete the problem sets. PREREQUISITES: There are no graduate-level prerequisites for this course. Familiarity with basic concepts of calculus such as integrals and derivatives is helpful, as is some knowledge of statistics. I will not expect you to do calculus in this course, but quite a few demographic relationships will be explained with reference to calculus. It is very helpful to have a basic grasp of calculus notation. GRADING: The final course grade will be based on performance on the following: Midterm exam 1/3 Final exam 1/3 Homework and class participation 1/3 KEY DATES: Assigned Due Problem Set 1 September 30 October 7 Problem Set 2 October 7 October 14 Problem Set 3 October 14 October 21 Problem Set 4 October 21 October 28 Problem Set 5 November 4 November 16 Problem Set 6 November 18 November 23 Problem Set 7 November 30 December 7 Midterm November 2 1 LECTURE SCHEDULE AND READINGS: September 30 Overview, Basic Concepts and Measures *Preston, Chapter 1. Preston, Samuel H. 1993. “The Contours of Demography: Estimates and Projections.” Demography 30(4):593-606. Lee, Ronald. 2001. “Demography Abandons its Core.” (see List of Links on class web page). Keyfitz, Nathan M. “How do we Know the Facts of Demography?” 1975. Population and Development Review 1:267-288 Ryder, Norman B. 1964. “Notes on the Concept of a Population.” American Journal of Sociology. LXIX(5): 447-463. Ryder, Norman B. 1965. “The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change.” American Sociological Review. 30: 843-861. October 5,7 Age-specific Rates and Probabilities, Decomposition and the Lexis Diagram *Preston, Chapter 2 *Smith, Herbert L., S. Philip Morgan, and Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox. 1996. “A Decomposition of Trends in the Nonmarital Fertility Ratios of Blacks and Whites in the United States, 1960-1992.” Demography 33(2):141-151. *Razzaque, A., N. Alam, L. Wai, and A. Foster. 1990. “Sustained Effects of the 1974-75 Famine on Infant and Child Mortality in a Rural Area of Bangladesh.” Population Studies. 44(1990):145-154. Kitigawa, Evelyn M. 1964. “Standardized Comparisons in Population Research.” Demography 1: 296-325. Lauderdale, Diane S. and Bert Kestenbaum. 2002. “Mortality Rates of Elderly Asian American Populations based on Medicare and Social Security Data.” Demography. 39(3): 529-540. Kitigawa, Evelyn M. 1955. “Components of a Difference between Two Rates.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 50(272): 1168-94. Decomposing Change in Life Expectancy: A Bouquet of Formulas in Honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th Birthday.” Demography 40(2): 201-216. October 12, 14,19 The Life Table: Single Decrement Processes, Model Life Tables *Preston, Chapter 3 * Oeppen, J. and J. Vaupel. 2002. “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy.” Science. 296: 10 May 2002. pp. 1029-1031. (see List of Links on class web page) * Hirschman, C., S. Preston, and V. Loi. 1995. “Vietnamese Casualties During the American War: A New Estimate.” Population and Development Review. 21(4): pp. 783-811. *Eloundou-Enyegue, P. 2004. “Pregnancy-Related Dropouts and Gender Inequality in Education.” Demography. 41(3): pp. 509-528. Mathers, C. C. Murray, A. Lopez, J. Salomon, and R. Sadana. “Global Patterns of Health Expectancy in the Year 2000.” Chapter 17 in Determining Health Expectancies . 2003: John Wiley and Sons. Elo, Irma T. 2001. “New African American Life Tables from 1935-1940 to 1985- 1990.” Demography. 38(1): 97-114. Kannisto, Vaino, Jens Lauritsen, A. Roger Thatcher, and James W. Vaupel. 1994. “Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages: Several Decades of Evidence from 27 Countries.” Population and Development Review. 20(4): 793-810. Lee, Ronald, and Lawrence R. Carter. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 87(419): pp. 659- 671. Lee, R. and T. Miller. 2001. “Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality.” Demography 38(4): 537-550. 2 October 21 The Life Table: Multiple Decrement Processes *Preston, Chapter 4 *Trussell, James and Barbara Vaughan. 1999. “Contraceptive Failure, Method- Related Discontinuation and Resumption of Use: Results from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth.” Family Planning Perspectives. 31(2): 64-72 & 93. Preston, Samuel H. 1970. “The Age-Incidence of Death from Smoking.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 65(331): 1125-1130. October 26 Increment-Decrement Life Tables *Preston, Chapter 12, pp. 256-266. *Schmertmann, C., A. Amankwaa, and R. Long. 1998. “Three Strikes and You’re Out: Demographic Analysis of Mandatory Prison Sentencing.” Demography 35(4): 445-463. October 28 Survival Analysis *Allison, Paul. 1984. “Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data.” Pp. 9-14. Sage Publications. *Sweeney, Megan. 2002. “Economic prospects and marriage formation in the 1970s and 1980s.” American Sociological Review. 67(1): 132-147. (available on class web site list of links). Mason, William M., William Lavely, Hiromi Ono, Angelique Chan. 1996. “The Decline of Infant Mortality in China: Sichuan, 1949-1988.” Pp. 153-210 in Social Differentiation and Social Inequality. Westview Press. Long, J., Paul Allison, and Robert McGinnis. 1993. “Rank Advancement in Academic Careers: Sex Differences and the Effects of Productivity.” American Sociological Review. 58(Oct): 703-22. Miller, Jane, James Trussell, Anne Pebley, and Barbara Vaughan. 1992. “Birth Spacing and Child Mortality in Bangladesh and the Philippines.” Demography 29(2): 305-318. November 2 MIDTERM November 4, 9, 16 Union Formation and Fertility *Preston, Chapter 5. *Bongaarts, John. 2001. “Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post- Transitional Societies.” Pp. 260-281. Supplement to Population and Development Review. Global Fertility Transitions. Casterline and Bulatao (eds). * Lindstrom, David and Betemariam Berhanu. 1999. “The Impact of War, Famine, and Economic Decline on Marital Fertility in Ethiopia.” Demography. 36(2): 247-261. *Carlson, Marcia, Sara McLanahan, and Paula England. “Union Formation in Fragile Families.” Demography. 41(2): 237-261. Bumpass, Larry and H.H. Lu. 2000. “Trends in Cohabitation and Implications for Children’s Family Contexts in the U.S.” Population Studies. 54(1): 29-41. Qian, Zhenchao and Samuel Preston. “Changes in American Marriage, 1972 to 1987: Availability and Forces of Attraction by Age and Education.” American Sociological Review. 58 (August: 482-495). Hotz, V. Joseph, Susan McElroy, and Seth Sanders. 2002. “Teenage Childbearing and its Life Cycle Consequences: Exploiting a Natural Experiment.” Manuscript. (see class web page for link). Seltzer, Judith. 2000. “Families Formed Outside of Marriage.” Journal of Marriage and the Family. 62: p. 1247-1268. 3 November 18 Population Projections *Preston, Chapter 6 *Lutz, Wolfgang, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov. 2001. “The End of World Population Growth.” Nature. 412(August): 543-545. (see class web page for link). Wachter, Kenneth, John E. Knodel, and Mark VanLandingham. “AIDS and the Elderly of Thailand: Projecting Familial Impacts.” 2002. Demography. 39(1): pp. 25-41. Heuveline, Patrick. 2003. “HIV and Population Dynamics: A General Model and Maximum-Likelihood Standards for East Africa.” Demography. 40(2): pp. 217-25. Mare, Robert D. 1997. “Differential Fertility, Intergenerational Educational Mobility, and Racial Inequality.” Social Science Research. 26:263-91. Beyond