The Vital Importance of High- Performance Computing to U.S. Competitiveness BY STEPHEN J. EZELL AND ROBERT D. ATKINSON | APRIL 2016 High-performance computing (HPC) refers to systems that, through a Leadership in high- combination of processing capability and storage capacity, can rapidly performance computing remains indispensable solve difficult computational problems across a diverse range of scientific, to a country’s industrial engineering, and business fields. HPC represents a strategic, game- competitiveness, changing technology with tremendous economic competitiveness, science national security, and leadership, and national security implications. Because HPC stands at the potential for scientific discovery, yet forefront of scientific discovery and commercial innovation, it is heightened global positioned at the frontier of competition—for nations and their competition places enterprises alike—making U.S. strength in producing and adopting HPC America’s HPC central to its competitiveness. But as competitor nations rapidly scale up leadership under increasing threat. their investments in and applications of high-performance computing, America will need concerted public and private collaboration and investment to maintain its leading position in both HPC production and application. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | APRIL 2016 PAGE 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 3 What is HPC, and Why Does Its Production and Use Matter? ............................................................. 4 What is HPC? ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Why HPC Adoption and Use Matters ..................................................................................................... 7 Why HPC Production Matters .............................................................................................................. 11 Commercial Applications and Benefits of HPC USE ....................................................................... 13 Manufacturing and Industrial Applications of HPC ............................................................................... 14 Aerospace ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Automotive ................................................................................................................................... 16 Steel and Welding ......................................................................................................................... 19 Consumer Packaged Goods Manufacturing ...................................................................................... 19 Energy Consumption and Production .............................................................................................. 20 Bringing HPC to America’s SME Manufacturers ............................................................................... 20 What’s Next for HPC in Manufacturing? .......................................................................................... 22 Health-Care-Related Applications of HPC ............................................................................................ 24 Other Commercial Sectors Leveraging HPC .......................................................................................... 28 Finance ........................................................................................................................................ 28 Sports and Entertainment .............................................................................................................. 28 Scientific Research Applications of HPCs ............................................................................................ 28 Weather Forecasting ...................................................................................................................... 28 Space Research ............................................................................................................................ 29 The Global HPC Market .............................................................................................................. 30 International Competition for HPC Leadership ............................................................................... 34 China ................................................................................................................................................ 34 The European Union .......................................................................................................................... 37 Japan ............................................................................................................................................... 38 India................................................................................................................................................. 39 South Korea ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Russia .............................................................................................................................................. 40 Country Summary .............................................................................................................................. 40 Why A U.S. HPC Policy Is Needed ............................................................................................... 41 The National Strategic Computing Initiative ......................................................................................... 42 Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 44 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 48 Endnotes .................................................................................................................................. 49 Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... 50 About The Authors ..................................................................................................................... 50 About ITIF ................................................................................................................................ 50 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | APRIL 2016 PAGE 2 INTRODUCTION High-performance computing has become indispensable to the ability of enterprises, scientific researchers, and government agencies to generate new discoveries and to innovate breakthrough products and services. Indeed, high-performance computers are contributing significantly to scientific progress, industrial competitiveness, national security, and quality of life. Accordingly, many leading nations are engaged in an intensifying contest to develop the most sophisticated high-performance computing systems—and to broadly deploy them throughout their academic, industry, and government institutions—in order to advance their industrial competitiveness and scientific leadership, ensure their national security, and help address social challenges such as health, public safety, weather forecasting, climate change, and environmental protection. These nations recognize that more sophisticated and faster computers can give their countries a comparative advantage. This report explains what high-performance computing is and why both HPC production and use matters; articulates how industry, academia, and governments leverage HPC to solve frontier challenges; details the contours of the intensifying competition for global HPC leadership; and assesses U.S. policy toward high-performance computing. The report finds that robust levels of public investment—and effective public-private partnerships to diffuse the availability and accessibility of HPC systems—has been foundational to America’s leadership in high-performance computing. The report makes the following policy recommendations to ensure America’s continuing HPC leadership into the future. Congress should: Hold hearings on the National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) and the intensifying race for global HPC leadership. Authorize and appropriate funding levels for the National Strategic Computing Initiative as requested in the Obama administration’s FY 2017 budget for FY 2017 and for future years. Reform export control regulations to match the reality of current high- performance computing systems. The administration, or its agencies and departments therein, should: Continue to make technology transfer and commercialization activities a priority focus of America’s network of national laboratories. Emphasize HPC in federal worker training and retraining programs. Emphasize HPC in relevant Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) engagements, helping facilitate small- to medium-sized enterprises’ (SME) access to high-performance computing. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | APRIL 2016 PAGE 3 WHAT IS HPC, AND WHY DOES ITS PRODUCTION AND USE MATTER? This section defines and describes high-performance computing and then assesses specific reasons why leadership in both HPC adoption and production matters to nations.