Breakingth e Spiral of Unsustainability An Exploratory Land UseStud y for Ansai, the Loess Plateau of China Promotor: Dr. Ir.R . Rabbinge Hoogleraar ind eplantaardig e productiesystemen Co-promotor: Dr. Ir.M .K .va n Ittersum Universitair docent bij deleerstoelgroe p Plantaardige Productiesystemen ^ M 0 2-7)Oo ?f) .. i 0 Breaking the Spiral of Unsustainability AnExplorator y Land UseStud y for Ansai, the LoessPlatea u of China LUChangh e Proefschrift ter verkrijging van degraa dva n doctor op gezagva n derecto r magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit, dr. C. M.Karssen , inhe t openbaar te verdedigen opwoensda g 14jun i 2000 desnamiddag st ehal ftwe e in de Aula ;^^ O^^O^I\-D Lu,C .H. ,200 0 Breakingth e spiral ofunsustainability :a nexplorator y landus e study for Ansai,th eLoes sPlatea u ofChina .Ph.D .Thesis ,Wageninge n University. - Withref . - With summary inEnglish , Dutch andChinese . ISBN: 90-5808-247-4 Subject headings:lan dus e/ sustainability/ Ansai ;th eLoes sPlatea u Printing:Grafisc h Service CentrumVa nGil sB .V. ,Wageninge n BIBLIOTHEr.K LANDBOUWUNlVERSITErr WAGENINGFN e M 1=1 B ?SJ Abstract Lu, C. H., 2000. Breaking the spiral of unsustainability: an exploratory land use study for Ansai, the Loess Plateau of China.Ph.D. Thesis, Wageninge n University, Wageningen, theNetherlands . 256pp . Serious soil loss, food insecurity, population pressure, and low income of the rural population are in­ terrelated, and consequently result in a spiral of unsustainability in the Loess Plateau, China. This the­ sis takes Ansai County in the Loess Plateau as a case study, to explore strategic land use options that may break the unsustainability spiral and meet goals of regional development. A systems analysis ap­ proach hasbee n applied, in which fragmented and empirical information of the biophysical and agro­ nomic conditions is integrated with well-adapted production ecological principles and other knowl­ edge sources. With respect to the land use problems and regional development objectives, alternative produc­ tion activities (systems) have been identified and quantified using a 'target-oriented approach' and the concept of 'best technical means', andbase d on information obtained from a quantitative land evalua­ tion, experimental data, literature and expert knowledge. Production activities have been quantified for cropping, fruit, grassland and firewood production systems, and animal husbandry. Production techniques emphasize soil conservation, productivity, use efficiency or low emission of chemicals. The quantified production activities, resource constraints, and socio-economic and environmental ob­ jectives have been incorporated into a multiple goal linear programming model that is used to opti­ mize land use allocation, evaluate trade-offs among objectives and evaluate policy scenarios. The results reveal that the goals of food security and soil conservation in Ansai can be easily achieved from a biophysical and agro-technical point of view. Current slope cultivation and the re­ sulting serious soil loss can be greatly reduced, while still guaranteeing food security for the rural population (in 2020).Th e soil loss control is,t o alarg e extent, in line with the goals of increasing crop productivity and laborproductivit y (net agricultural return per laborer). In the long term, terracing and croprotation s with alfalfa could be thebes t options for soil conservation and also for agricultural pro­ duction. The large rural labor force can be used for terrace construction. Alfalfa can fix nitrogen, and thus greatly reduce the demand for fertilizer N, and also improve soil fertility. The large rural population and the lack of off-farm employment opportunities could be the most important factor affecting rural development in Ansai. This is evident from the trade-off results, i.e., increasing the total employment in agriculture leads to an apparent adverse effect on many other ob­ jectives. However, there is a potential for maintaining high agricultural employment at a reasonable income level. The current low net return due to the very limited external inputs andpoo r crop and soil management can be substantially improved by efficient resource use and appropriate inputs. Thisresearc h work contributes toth e understanding ofregiona l problems and agricultural devel­ opment potentials. The results show agro-technical possibilities for breaking the spiral of unsustain­ ability in this very fragile and poorly endowed region. Soil conservation, food security, employment and income for the rural population can be greatly enhanced by appropriate land use and agro- techniques. To promote actual development towards the identified options, appropriate policy meas­ ures aimed at improving the land tenure system and controlling population growth must be developed and implemented. The explored land use options enable a much more targeted policy development. In addition, the study can contribute to the formulation of a research agenda for research at field, crop and animal level. Keywords: land use, sustainability, soil loss, soil conservation, food security, quantitative land evaluation, linear programming, trade-off analysis,polic y scenarios, Ansai,th e Loess Plateau, China Preface The work reported in this thesis was funded by the Sandwich Program of Wageningen Uni­ versity, and also partly supported byth eprojec t 'Integrated control of degraded environments and sustainable development in fragile regions of China', which is financially supported by the Ministry of Sciences and Technology of China. The proposal for this research was for­ mulated during my preparatory study in the Department of Theoretical Production Ecology (TPE) of Wageningen University from October 1993 to March 1994. Data collection and a literature reviewwer e completed atth e Institute ofGeography , Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing from April 1994 to June 1998. Data processing, modeling and analysis of the re­ sults, and finally writing ofth ethesis ,wer e done atTPE-W U from July 1998t o March2000 . For this study, focussed on exploration of land use options in Ansai, a variety of knowl­ edge and information from several disciplines was required. Trying to integrate the informa­ tion and writethi s thesis during thepas t two years hasbee n abi g challenge. Without thehel p and support ofman ypeople ,m yresearc h would not haveresulte d inthi sthesis . I am very grateful to my promotor, Prof. Dr.Rud y Rabbinge, for his scientific guidance. His critical comments on all chapters and his suggestions for the structure of the thesis were very important and helpful to me. I also wish to express my thanks to him and his wife, Marja, for their hospitality. Iwis h to express my sincerest thanks to myco-promoto r Dr. Martin van Ittersum, for his valuable scientific and moral support from the beginning to the end of this project. He was always patient in reading, discussing andrevisin g mymanuscripts .Hi s deep understanding of exploratory studies was very useful for the analysis and meaningful presentation of the re­ sults. His active andcontinuou s support was indispensable for the completion ofthesis . Iwil l not forget the friendship and hospitality my family and I received from him and his wife, Jody. During mywork , Ilearn t alo t from Rudy andMartin . Iwoul d especially like to express my appreciation to Prof. Dr. Liu Yanhua.Althoug h he was not directly involved in this project, his moral support and encouragement of my work were very helpful. Thanks are also due to him for his help in the development of my career during the last 15 years. Prof. Dr. Herman van Keulen read the parts of the manuscript dealing with animal pro­ duction (Section 4.6 and Appendix 5). I appreciate very much his valuable comments and suggestions. Mr.Davi d Makowski (TPE and INRAAgronomi e in Toulouse, France) isgrate ­ fully acknowledged for his help in developing the MGLP model, by writing the preliminary program, and checking and testing the model. Ir. Huib Hengsdijk read the entire manuscript and did the translation of the Dutch summary. I express my sincere thanks to him for his comments. During my stay at TPE, I shared an office with Huib and Janjo de Haan. I appre­ ciated very much our lively discussions, their help and the pleasant work atmosphere they created. Drs. Cor Langeveld is acknowledged for his help and contribution to the Dutch summary. I grateful to Dr.Wopk e de Wolf, for his help and comments onpart s ofm y manuscript. I also thank him and his wife, Saskia, for their hospitality. I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Jan Goudriaan and his wife, Trijnie, for their hospitality. Ithan k Dr.Ber t H. Janssen (Department of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, WU) and Dr. Geert Sterk (Group of Soil and Water Con- servation, WU) forreadin g Chapter 3o fth emanuscrip t andfo rthei r valuable comments,an d Ir.Frit s Claassen (Department ofMathematics , WU)fo rhelpin g met ochec k some aspectso f theMGL Pmodel .Man ypeopl e also contributed tothi swor k through various discussions: Dr. Peter Leffelaar, Dr.Nic o deRidder , Dr. Walter Rossing, Ir.Joos t Wolf and Ing. Gonva nLaa r (TPE-WU), Ir.Kee s vanDiepe n (Alterra-WUR), Dr.Hei n ten Berge, Ir. Willem Meijer and Ir. Pieter van de Sanden (Plant Research International, WUR), Ir. Godert W.J . van Lynden and Ir. Stephan Mantel (ISRIC), Prof. Dr. Leo Stroosnijder and Ing. Wim Spaan (Group of Soil and Water Conservation, WU). I thank them all for their helpful advice. I also wish to thank Ing. Aad van Ast, Ria Boleij, Lien Uithol and Marianne Straatman (TPE-WU) and EvertVerschuu r(TUPEA )fo rthei rhelp . I would like to thank the language editors, Ian Cressie and Catharina de Kat-Reynen (Cressie Communication Services), for the English editing; Dr. Jimmy Williams (ARS- Temple, U.S.A.) for sending me a copy of the EPIC model; andDr .Richar d Laundy (Dash Associates,UK) ,fo rhelpin gm et ochec k some aspects ofth eMGL Pmodel .